Pressure, escalation, hazard – this is how you can summarize the current situation of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, which was again at the centre of attention – although this time due to Donald Trump's tough administration policy. The military mobilization of society is ongoing and the humanitarian crisis is deepening in the country.
Following the controversial Venezuelan elections in 2024, in which Nicolas Maduro's government declared triumph despite accusations of forgery, relations between Caracas and Washington entered a phase of acute confrontation. president Donald Trump's fresh administration, sworn in in in January this year, abandoned the erstwhile "stick and carrot" maneuver for direct emphasis. Washington introduced secondary trade duties to Venezuelan oil merchant countries and carried out military attacks in Caribbean waters targeting drug smuggling suspects. As the Financial Times noted, the decision of the 25-percent tariff could "turn global oil flows" and hit Asian importers specified as India and China.
Economics as a weapon
In March this year, Donald Trump signed an executive order imposing 25-proc. customs duties on goods from countries which buy oil or gas from Venezuela. This applies to both direct and indirect purchases. The White home clarified that the tariff was additional and could apply even for a year after the last Venezuelan oil imports by a given country.
The diary “El País” notes that the list of possibly affected countries includes, among others, Spain, India, China and Venezuelan Caribbean neighbours. The Argentine paper “La Nación” stresses that this decision may have “serious marketplace consequences”. German economical media, specified as "Die Welt", point to the legal basis for US action (IEEP Act) and the advanced vulnerability of European partners to US secondary duties, which de facto force the resignation of trade with Caracas. The natural material marketplace reacted rapidly to this information – in April, exports of oil from Venezuela decreased by 11.5 percent.
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Essequibo: border dispute
In the context of tensions between Caracas and Washington, a increasing territorial conflict with Guyana over the Essequibo region cannot be overlooked. The disputed territory covers more than 160 1000 km2, which accounts for almost 2 thirds of Guyana's surface area. Let us add that Guyana is in the U.S. influence zone, and the disputed area is highly rich in oil deposits. And although it is presently administered by the government in Georgetown and subject to proceedings before the global Court of Justice (MTS), Venezuela has escalated the situation at both symbolic and political levels since 2023. Let us callback that Venezuela even held a national civilian referendum 2 years ago, which confirmed Venezuela's claims to the disputed area.
In 2025. Caracas went further by organising local government elections for the state of Guayan Esequiba, despite warnings from Guyana and MTS. "The Washington Post" described this as "a provocation undermining Guyana's sovereignty", and planet agencies reported Georgetown's request to the Court to take interim measures to halt Venezuelan action. Although there has been no physical takeover of the territory, there is simply a political annexation "on paper", which has real consequences: tensions around the operation of the oil deposits in Stabroek block by ExxonMobil and uncertainty that creates tensions among investors.
This assessment strengthens the March incidental erstwhile president Guyana Irfaan Ali reported the invasion of a Venezuelan ship into a production area in an area considered by Guyana as its territorial waters. According to The Guardian, the unit approached Exxon's installation, which was considered to be a "serious incident" and a violation of global non-use force-free arrangements. Georgetown launched a military consequence and diplomatic channels; support for Guyana was expressed by the United States and the Organization of American States. Caracas defends itself that the action took place in the "area for delimitation". In practice, however, we are dealing with investigating the boundaries of global law and the policy of facts made in the area crucial to the oil industry.
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The militarisation of society is underway
In consequence to the rising tensions of the global and confrontational course of the United States, Caracas moved on to interior mobilization. Since August this year, the authorities have launched an extended "universal defence" programme. Venezuelan defence minister Vladimir Padrino López and the leadership of the socialist organization announced mass recruitments to the alleged Bolivarian Militia, the deployment of 284 "front zones" and weekly military training for civilians. Military forces, police and civilian defensive formations have been deployed throughout the country. ‘El País’ reported that the number of declared ‘milicants’ varies between 4 and 8 million. Let us add that, as part of propaganda activities, Latin American media reported the training of women learning to operate weapons.
The culmination of these activities was a national “training day” a fewer days ago, during which participants learned “all” – from firearm handling to long-term opposition tactics. ‘Le Monde’, RFI and ‘Jamaica Observer’ reported queues to training stations, arms demonstrations and officer appearances. The defence minister besides stressed in public statements that hundreds of training posts were created and that more than 1000 recruitment points were to operate in the country.
Although formal participation in the Bolivarian Militia is voluntary, reality indicates at least the strong force of participation. The Ministry of Defence denies the existence of a universal collection, but training goes to schools, workplaces and local communities. As the Venezuelan portal Cotejo reminds, there is no authoritative decree ordering mandatory civilian training, but in practice many people are under force to participate.
This process of militarisation is not separated from the global context. As the US increases its presence in the Caribbean and carries out drug operations, Caracas responds to military maneuvers and civilian defence mobilisation. According to AFP, authorities present these activities as a form of deterrence from possible invasion. All this deepens the tension spiral between Washington and Caracas, raising the hazard of border incidents, especially in the direction of Essequibo. The actions of the Venezuelan government besides strengthen legitimacy for further US pressure, both in economical and military terms.
Let us callback that in September this year there were 3 military attacks that carried out US armed forces on boats suspected of drug smuggling coming out of Venezuela. In the first attack 11 people died, in the second 3 people, and the 3rd attack was to be carried out in secret, but – without details – informed the “Financial Times” and “The Washington Post”.
In response, Caracas accused the US of ‘aggression’, broke political ties and conducted military maneuvers. president Maduro announced the mobilisation of 8 ships with 1,200 missiles. planet media on the case confirmed an increase in US Navy presence in the region. Donald Trump threatened with further sanctions if Venezuela did not agree to extradite criminals.
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What's next?
On the global stage, Caracas imposed retaliatory duties on goods from Brazil (15–77%), which amazed Brazil and triggered the intervention of chambers of commerce from the Roraima region.
“Financial Times”, “Le Monde”, “Der Spiegel” and “Die Welt” study the increasing confrontation and the different nature of secondary sanctions. At the same time, there is simply a legal dispute in the US about the legality of customs tariffs introduced by Donald Trump. According to the media, however, American courts are starting to issue adverse sentences for the president, even in cases not straight related to Venezuela. The "Jerusalem Post" informs, in turn, that Venezuela appears in many analyses of the activities of Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah. The U.S. accuses Caracas of cooperating with drug networks and money laundering, including by the Tren de Aragua gang and the “Cartel de los Soles”. Trump uses these accusations as an argument in the rhetoric of “narcoterrorism”.
Three scenarios of developments are possible in the coming months. The first assumes further tightening of pressure: maintaining tariffs, expanding military activities and continuing financial pressure. Venezuelan oil exports will most likely proceed to decline and the hazard of an armed incidental in the Caribbean remains high. "Financial Times" emphasises that shifting accents from law enforcement to the usage of military force means a qualitative change in American policy towards the region.
The second script assumes alleged energy pragmatism. A limited resumption of European companies could ease the supply shock, although at the same time maintaining political force towards Caracas. As the global ag-
This approach allows for manoeuvre between economical interests and political objectives.
The 3rd script is simply a dialog option. Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro is sending signals of readiness to talk. However, the U.S. side is now dominated by a tough line, represented, among others, by the Secretary of State Marco Rubio, determined to proceed the force on Nicolas Maduro's governments.
