According to the latest United Surveys poll for Virtual Poland, the Polish political scene is becoming increasingly polarized, and the race for triumph in the election is gaining momentum.
Law and Justice keep a lead with support of 29.2%, but the Civic Coalition with a score of 28.2 percent trample on the heels of the Law and Justice, gaining clearly compared to erstwhile studies. At the second pole there was Poland 2050, whose ratings fell dramatically, placing the group of Szymon Hołownia at the end of the party's stake.
The results of the latest survey show an increase in support for both largest groups. The PiS gained 0.9 percent points, which may not be a breakthrough, but confirms the unchangeable persistence of this group in the leadership position. However, much more visible growth was noted by the Civic Coalition. Her ratings have risen by 2.6 percent points compared to the end of June, partially recovering the earlier, sharp drop as much as 7.4 percent points. This swing of support for KO fits into a broader image of political rivalry, in which voters rapidly change preferences in consequence to current events.
The 3rd position is the Confederation with a consequence of 12.5 percent, which means a drop of 2.5 percent points. This is the biggest failure in this study, signaling the weakening of the position of the group, which has inactive late enjoyed greater interest from voters. The Confederacy is followed by the Left, which, with a consequence of 6.8 percent, inactive has a chance to enter the Sejm, although the increase in its support is symbolic — only by 0.2 percent points.
There were smaller groups outside the electoral threshold. The Confederation of the Polish Crown Grzegorz Braun with the consequence of 4.2 percent is closest to the entry into parliament, but would not be able to introduce any MPs. The Polish People's organization with the support of 3.5 percent and together with 3 percent would besides be outside the Sejm. peculiar attention is drawn to the situation of Poland 2050 by Szymon Hołownia, which won only 2.8 percent of the vote. This is simply a clear sign of the marginalisation of this group, which has been seen late as a viable alternate to the 2 main political forces.
It is worth noting that the percent of undecided voters besides increased. As many as 9.8 percent of respondents replied that they did not know who they would vote for. This is nearly 3 percent points more than in the erstwhile study, which may indicate the increasing uncertainty of voters or their disappointment with the current political offer.
If elections were held next Sunday, the division of seats in the Sejm would be about as follows: Law and Justice could number on 186 seats, Civic Coalition to 178, Confederation to 68, and Left to 28. No organization would have obtained an independent majority, but the PiS and the Confederacy would have had a full of 254 mandates, allowing them to form a government. The majority of the Sejm's seats are 231, so specified a coalition would be arithmetically possible, although its political sustainability would stay open.
In theory, another coalition systems could besides be imagined, although any of them stay purely hypothetical. For example, the KO and Confederacy alliance would give 246 mandates, but this is simply a politically improbable script due to the fundamental programme differences. The strongest arithmetic arrangement would form a coalition of PiS and KOs, which together would have 364 mandates, but this option is alternatively a political fantasy, given the deep divisions between these groups.
The full sum of KO and Left seats would be 206, which is not adequate to make a government. This state of affairs confirms that Polish politics are inactive oscillating around 2 main forces, and smaller parties are increasingly hard to find their place. Poland 2050 was peculiarly difficult. Its consequence would not only not let entry into the Sejm, but would even undermine the sense of the continuation of this group in its current form.
The survey besides shows that political dynamics in Poland is inactive very lively. Even after a series of declines of support, the Civic Coalition was able to rebuild its position. The PiS remains the leader, but its advantage is minimal and everything indicates that the election run will be highly fierce. An increase in the number of indecisive voters may prove crucial in the final outcome. It is those who do not know who to vote for present that can find who will take power after the next election. In practice this means that parties must not only compete against each another for loyal voters, but besides fight for those who have not yet made their decision. In the current political situation in Poland, this task may prove to be as crucial as the clashes between the leaders of groups.
