Although the operating axiom with a tiny strategical depth of the Baltic republics has a clear geostrategic justification, let us remember that maps do not prevail. The defence of Kurland during the last months of planet War II proved this. The evacuation operation of soldiers and civilians from Kurland, east Prussia and the “Polish Corridor” (Unternehmen Hannibal) covered German transports (in Estonia lived for 7 100 years), departing to the Hel Peninsula and Western Pomerania.
The defenders of the Kurland Peninsula resisted the attacks until May 10, 1945, due to the fact that they were not informed of the surrender of the 3rd Reich. 33 divisions of the Wehrmacht and Waffen SS originally defended the front extended from Riga to Lipawa. As of September 1944, they faced six massive attacks against 52 russian divisions from the 1st and 2nd Baltic Front. 180,000 German, Latvian soldiers marched distant (in the fratricidal conflict of the 43rd Latvian firearm Division faced the Latvian 19th Division of Grenadiers SS) and Estonian.
Is the Baltics' hard defence script possible today? Yes, if we shake off the caravan spirit and begin the communicative of the winners. You can see the news.
Gen. Christopher Donahue, commander of the U.S. land forces in Europe and Africa (USAREUR-AF), stated that NATO could "require" at an express pace (interesting to whom it would belong after the victory?). In this 1 sentence, he invalidated thousands of reports, analyses and dissertations consolidating the civilian audience in fear of the Russian attack on the slide. Nope. If we destruct land, sea and air forces in the Russian exclave, the summertime period on the Augustov Canal will be saved.
In a akin speech he announced his joining the game General Alexus Grynkewich, fresh US and NATO forces commander in Europe (SACEUR/EUCOM). He trailed the U.S. legislature hearings, announcing that “Ukraine can win the war with Russia” due to the fact that “Ukrainians are doing great.” It's a Copernican change of narrative. Or just a narrative?
Nope. After all, the number of ships active in the exercises increases year by year ‘Baltops’ and "Neptune Strike". Who carefully watched allied maneuvers ‘Steadfast Defender 2024’, the largest of the “ReForGer ” exercises in 1988, should not feel surprised. More than 50 ships, 80 aircraft and 90 1000 infantry took part. What did they say? A clear advantage of the Allied at sea and in the air. Deficits are inactive identified in the ground troops.
In the north of the US European Command (EUCOM) work area, for the first time in history, USS "Harry S. Truman" and USS "Gerald R. Ford" aircraft carriers began to operate on a regular basis. British air carriers HMS "Prince of Wales" and HMS "Queen Elizabeth" were already entering the Baltic. And inactive recently, in operational analyses, the belief that any aircraft carrier would be shot by Bastion-P systems with P-800 Oniks missiles from the Rabbit, immediately after crossing Sundu. A projection of the forces of American and British sailors must mean that Russian anti-access systems A2/AD have ceased to be feared.
Exercises ‘Baltops '25It’s okay. ”
Russia's weakness was already observed in 2022. On the 1 hand, there was annihilation of the selective landing and armored units that were to take Kiev from the march, and on the another hand, the Kremlin's hard consequence to the request for NATO accession by Sweden and Finland was lacking. In 2008, Moscow took 5 days to wipe out the Georgians' dreams of joining the Western Covenant, and the punishment was the failure of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Today, of course, we are not talking about the retaliatory bombings of Helsinki and Stockholm, but at least the diversions in Latvia or the provoked riots in Narva. Nothing like that happened. It ended with regular threats.
In distant countries, Ukrainian war can be considered a large deal. NATO with adjacentities does not pay for soldiers' blood, but war materials. The Armed Forces of Ukraine, many times stronger than the troops of each EU country, give Europe time to step up preparations for defence. As a result, it is improbable that the Kremlin will take a direct attack on the NATO border, as it does not have the strength to fight on 2 fronts.
Let's go beyond the clichés. The awareness that we are participants in Europe's defence by the best and largest army on the continent, which militarily binds Russia and inflicts severe losses, stimulates another conclusions for the world, and somewhat different ones for the European north. erstwhile democracies cheering Ukrainians repeat a defensive lullaby about helping a defending country as long as it is needed, the Nordic-Baltic 8th (NB8) recognizes Kiev as the most crucial offensive link guaranteeing their safety; not only now but besides in the future. Since the safety of Europe is determined by Kiev's attitude, Ukraine should so be an equal partner for NATO associate States, including membership.
Yet the revival of the fighting spirit in the Allies is besides the consequence of a cool analysis of the doctrine of the Baltic and Scandinavian states. Let us take the hypothesis that the Russians are attacking Latvia, Estonia and Finland or 1 of these countries if they truly measure their offensive capabilities. They push the Baltics towards the coast, although the Bay of Newska is already isolated by a mine bulkhead, and in Klaipeda and Riga it is taking place the landing of dense equipment of the US Army, which landing ships brought from American magazines in Norway.
Characterizing the attitude of the NB8 to Ukraine as a strong ally, not a country fighting for survival, let us look again at the map, but where the Ukrainian-Belarusian border was drawn. After all, this is the second front, hanging over Russian-Belarusian offensive activity like a Damocles bomb. Each attack in the northwest (executed all 4 years during the “Zapad” maneuvers) will meet with an immediate reaction of Ukraine, along the operational axis of Pinsk-Ivacewicze-Bialystok. This is simply a critical threat to the confederate flank of Russian and Belarusian forces active in the attack on the Baltic states. It would force Moscow to disperse resources.
This is the combat pattern that the Russians practiced twice during the last planet War. First in the destructive model in 1941 (in the operational plan), erstwhile the blades of the propeller Panzerwaffe crushed the russian army in the boilers 1 by one. And for the second time (in an offensive strategical context) – in the summertime of 1944, erstwhile the landing organization in Normandy opened the Western Front and forced the Wehrmacht to share melting resources. Against the background of specified an arrangement, the Baltics and the Scandinavians treat Ukraine as a cardinal component of their defence strategy, deterring the Kremlin from attacking them.
Let us repeat: the democratic planet supporting Kiev sees the Ukrainians' conflict as a convenient fact of binding the imperial pretensions of Moscow. profoundly hidden makiawelism means agreeing to effective defence without affirmation for victory. Why? The expected Ukrainian Victoria would mean decomposition of the Russian Federation, and with it sorrow, or chaos connected with the management of mass demolition weapons. And on her side, the West is prone to hysteria. With the threat of the abolition of authoritarian rule, the planet saw after the hanging of Saddam Hussein. Moral dilemma (to tolerate the despot of murdering subjects or to save people at the expense of the stableness of the mediate East) after the Iraqi as well as the Afghan experimentation has already been settled. The chapter of the “humanitarian Wars” with the “homicidal states” making up the “axle of evil” has become history. Barack Obama proved this onegda in Syria.
For the Baltics and Fennoscandia, the underlying conclusions so make a crucial difference. Ukraine is simply a valuable ally not only today, erstwhile it binds Russian forces and inflicts painful losses on them, but besides tomorrow, erstwhile it becomes a strategical chess partner from the south, a possible war theatre in Belarus. The European North East has adopted planning in long strategical cycles, as the Russians have been doing for centuries.
Although the author's work is to make prophecies for the Academy of War Art and MON, this work should be considered his private deliberalization.
