In fresh months, we have become accustomed to grim news from Ukraine. Meanwhile, the Putinian war device on land was short of breath. The Russians stood, Ukrainians locally counterattack, frequently successfully; this does not mean taking the initiative across the full front, but the views are. Without a doubt, the Ukrainian maritime run can already be regarded as a large success, as this has led to the abolition of the Russian blockade in the Black Sea. Equally promising is the air offensive, aimed at Russia's critical infrastructure, primarily in refineries.
In January, Ukrainian drones hit Russian betting 7 times. The Tatarstan refineries (11 January), the Saratov Oblast (14 January), the Riyazansk Oblast (24 and 26 January) were targeted (January 29, 2 processing plants were attacked) and the Volgograd region (January 31). 5 raids have already been reported this month, the last 11 February in Saratov, a city located in the south-eastern part of Russia, in a region bordering Kazakhstan (so hundreds of kilometres from Ukraine). "Sarat oil refinery is 1 of the key facilities... Its capacity reaches 7 million tonnes of oil per year. The plant plays an crucial function in supplying Russia's army with fuel," wrote the Head of the Ukrainian Centre for Combating Disinformation Andrij Kujeenko.
I quote this entry due to the fact that it illustrates Ukrainian intentions well. The Russians are besides attacking Ukraine's critical infrastructure, with the difference that their mark is energy facilities and the direct victim of the civilian population, deprived of regular water, electricity and heating supplies. Meanwhile, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (ZSU) are seeking to "dry" the Russian army and to reduce the export gross of minerals and derivatives which Moscow uses to finance the war. Of course, the Russian military will be the last subject to a possible crisis and the request to ration fuels and lubricants – first the average Russians will face it. This is simply a nuisance, but far little than the humanitarian crisis that the aggressors brought to the Ukrainians in winter.
Rafinerie is the narrow throat of the Russian economy – over the last 2 decades many investments have been made based on Western technologies. With serious failures and damage, in the realities of the sanctioning regime, restoring their full efficiency is rather a challenge. What the Ukrainians are perfectly aware of, hence their consequences.
Illustration photograph - Refinery in Lisiciansk burns, April 202.
This determination is simply a fresh – or actually a fresh – attitude. In the spring of last year, ZSU attacked 11 of more than 30 Russian refineries, liable for producing 126 million tons of fuels and lubricants. Theoretically, the Russians can produce 300 million tonnes of these products annually, but it is actually a fewer tens of million tonnes less, due to the fact that it is impossible to keep all companies moving continuously. Attacked by Ukrainians, the bets continued, albeit to a very limited extent. The problem proved to be serious adequate that Russia suspended fuel sales abroad for six months. And then Washington came to aid Moscow. The administration of erstwhile U.S. president Joe Biden, fearing the emergence in gas prices in the planet markets (which would drain American wallets and just had a year of election...), asked the Kiev to halt the attacks. What truly happened – between April and December 2024 Ukrainian drones struck only a fewer times, in not many raids. The surge of attacks coincided with a change of power in the US – and I don't think it was an accident.
Why this volt of the United States? It seems that Donald Trump (or alternatively 1 of his advisors) saw the benefits of Ukrainian “drone” refinery. Russian problems did not origin global increases in processed oil prices. Instead, they forced Moscow to change the volume of exported goods – to replace petrol with crude oil. Losses in export profits "fast" were compensated, but what next? Trump's announcement – that he would get along with arabian oil tycoons, which would consequence in lower oil prices – caused a understandable rage in the Kremlin. As well as the fact that Kiev got a "green light" from Washington to attack targets in the depths of the Federation utilizing a "made in USA" weapon. If the U.S. aircraft launch in the Ukrainian arsenal, for which the platform is F-16 aircraft, the velocity and precision of the strikes in the refineries will increase significantly, putting Russia before the spectrum of inefficiency of the key sector of the economy. Today, half of the refineries (two thirds of the facilities located in the European part of the Federation) are working to a limited extent.
So, too. ‘invite“ Moscow to the negotiating table.
