Russian attacks on black sea ports cut off a large part of exports of grain from Ukraine, and Kiev looks back towards Gdańsk. On the Paris-based MATIF stock exchange, wheat went through EUR 241–243 per tonne, but land routes through Poland will not replace the sea. For Polish farmers, the return of the transit subject sounds like an echo of the crisis from 2023 to 2024.
The Black Sea again under fire
Intensified Russian strikes into civilian ships and port infrastructure cut off grain from Ukraine from its cheapest road to the world. The sea remained the main export channel for years, which Kiev sent at least 3.5 million tonnes of grain per month. erstwhile the Black Sea way shrinks, the marketplace reaction is immediate. On the Paris Stock Exchange, MATIF wheat pierced EUR 241–243 per tonne, maize reached EUR 254–257 and rape rose to EUR 546.
Gdansk alternatively of Odessa? The bill doesn't match
The alternate would be land routes through the European Union, and yet Polish ports. Problem is, their capacity is no match for the sea. The transit through Gdańsk and another European terminals present serves around 1.6 million tonnes, much little than sea exports. In addition, there are low water conditions in the Danube, which limit another of the emergency trails. Leonid Kozachenko, the head of the Ukrainian Confederation of Agrarna, talked to the UNIAN agency cooled his hopes. As he estimated, shifting all exports to EU land routes through Poland will not solve the problem, due to the fact that there is simply no processing capacity.
Kiev knocks, Warsaw is silent
The issue to the political level was the head of Ukrainian diplomacy. Andrij Sybiha wrote on page X about Russian attacks on civilians in the Black Sea and their effects on food security, and the subject was raised in a conversation with Polish minister Radosław Sikorski. The answer from the Vistula River is silence for now. The Polish authorities did not take a position on beginning transit through Gdańsk, although earlier Warsaw referred to this thought clearly reluctantly. This silence is not random.
Shadow of the 2023 crisis
For the Polish village, the subject of grain from Ukraine is inactive a wound. erstwhile Brussels abolished its duties in 2022 and opened the ‘solidarity corridors’, inexpensive grain alternatively of moving further, it settled on the home marketplace and broke the buying-in prices. The consequence was farmers' protests, border crossings and unilateral embargoes introduced by Poland in the autumn of 2023, contrary to the European Commission's position. This memory weighs on all conversation about a fresh transit. Farmers ask who will warrant that the grain sent to Gdańsk will actually leave Poland and will not quietly go to national elevations.
Transit is, but on Polish conditions
Formally, the gate is narrow and enclosed. The transport of agricultural products from Ukraine through the territory of Poland is permitted only erstwhile it ends in ports in Gdańsk, Gdynia, Świnoujście, Szczecin or Kołobrzeg, or abroad. The embargo on bringing Ukrainian goods into the interior marketplace is inactive valid. Ukraine itself maintains for 2026 the licensing strategy for exports of wheat, maize, rape and sunflower to Poland and respective another neighbours. The question that comes back is not so much a logistics as a political one. Will Gdańsk become a gateway that will aid the ally and make money for the Polish port, or alternatively the back door for the crisis, which the Polish village knows besides well?
Source: Money.
