The case wanted to bring the election to bear on the 100th anniversary of the Republic . Like a 100 years ago, the Turks again face a choice that will affect the lives of future generations.
At 1 time, erstwhile he wrote the first version of the celebrated work on the collision of civilization, Samuel Huntington placed a large question mark over the territory of Turkey. The American theorist had no dilemma where to classify Turkey, according to this theoretical model it takes place in the muslim bloc, but wondered: How to do this, erstwhile the proposed framework remains coherent and convincing!?
Because in many respects the country was different from another Muslim countries. Finally, the differences are so crucial that Turkey could be classified as a new, separate civilization!
On the 1 hand, among the many neighbours, whether Iranian (Persian) or Arab, Turks combine many things (language, tradition, different interpretations of historical events, complex bilateral relations during the post-Saxon period, common conflict of aspirations, nevertheless, exists membership of NATO and the "European" or the "western" dimension of Turkish politics), resulting in "religious proximity" in certain situations meaning "second category".
On the another hand, due to its "historical depth", geographical location, political importance and increasing power, Turkey has remained an indispensable actor in the planet of Islam, around which many things have been “rounded”.
Impact on Europe and Eurasia
And not just in the muslim world. As there is simply a "European" or "Western" dimension of Turkish policy, there is besides a "Turkish" or "Neosmanian" vector of influence on the formation of political processes in Europe. More specifically, in Western Eurasia. It is so not by chance that Turkey is among the members of the G 20. Looking at the strength – economic, military and political potential, it belongs to her.
It is the nineteenth largest economy in the world, the seventeenth most populous country, the tenth best equipped army (although these comparisons are on "shaky legs", it should be emphasized and done regularly), the twelfth most crucial tourist destination, the intersection of roads and logistics nodes, now an increasingly crucial origin in energy security...
As a result, Turkey's (un)stability depends on a full scope of things, not only in its immediate surroundings, but besides erstwhile it comes to continental security. And whether Turkey will stay unchangeable or become unstable will mostly find the upcoming elections.
Interference in the electoral process
For Western politicians, elections are an chance to influence the direction of the country's abroad policy. Of course, through gross interference in the election process and the failure of Tayyip Recep Erdogan. Erdogan's Turkey not only did not accompany or support the anti-Russian actions and sanctions of the US and the EU, but managed to agree with Moscow on fresh forms of cooperation and mutually beneficial bilateral relations.
Hence the emergence of Turkey as an increasingly crucial origin on the "energy map". Erdogan has long been “disturbing” many in Washington and Brussels, and the events of last year have only strengthened them in this position. However, this list of problems for the current president is not over, and his concerns are not limited to fraudsters from external centres of power who “will give him a head” and will retire.
Turkey faces major challenges, possibly the largest of which is continuous inflation. The purchasing power of citizens falls from period to month. Last year the price increase in housing was about 80 percent, while food products increased by 75 percent.
Erdogan's opponent, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, began a run from his kitchen, holding the head of the onions in his hand. With the detonation of food prices, onions become besides costly for any citizens. 1 survey of “independent experts”, which should be treated with a large margin, states that the actual inflation rate in 2022 was 135.55 percent.
The higher square metre price is linked not only to real increases in building materials prices and inflation trends, but besides to force on the marketplace and increased demand. Namely, a immense number of foreigners, Arabs from mediate East countries, as well as citizens of Russia and Ukraine, invested in Turkish properties last year, making the acquisition of housing impossible for the local population. I think that's why the opposition may have heard in the pre-election run that the sale of property to foreigners must be restricted.
This trend was followed by the consequences of the devastating earthquake, which further deepened the crisis. However, even though these circumstances give the majority of the united opposition the best chance of winning elections in the last 20 years, it is not certain that this will happen.
How do we get out of the crisis?
Unless Erdoğan sees a exit from the crisis by intensifying strategical projects and fresh state investments that can boost the economy (indirectly – even the IMF does not foresee this strategy as bad, as it predicted that Turkey's contribution to the growth of the planet economy by 2028 would be 2.1%), his opponents are talking about agreements with global financial institutions (which is euphemism for the planet Bank and the IMF) and austerity measures. If individual knows what kind of image these global financial institutions have, which can inactive "sell bricks" only in parts of Serbia and Moldova, but besides the experience Turkey had with them not so long ago, it is clear that the proposal failed.
It can besides be shown how badly it went with the (exceptional) opponent, the president of the "Republicans" and de facto for a decade and a half the leader of the opposition, who is an experienced and serious politician, but who just doesn't seem charismatic in the presidential campaign, and in addition is older than Erdogan. Kilicdaroglu is 75 years old! Despite the apparent problems, it can be said that Erdogan inactive manages to impose a "campation pace" and present them as his advantage.
Jubilee and Elections
Anyway, looking at the election results and post-election events in Turkey, there is simply a large question mark. Not only due to the uncertain presidential elections, but besides due to the even more uncertain allocation of seats in the fresh parliamentary term, with complex coalition relations within the 2 largest blocks and the 3rd – left-wing list, which, among another things, "to jump" a reduced vote threshold of 7% and be represented in the parliament.
Turkey's (un)stability depends on a full scope of things related to regional issues in the mediate East, Central Asia and the Balkans, continental safety (European) and global relations. Therefore, much depends on the upcoming elections. So many that it is hard to guess where the process will go.
On Thursday, Kilicdaroglu tweeted a message in Russian, calling on Moscow not to interfere in the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections in Turkey on 14 May, while claiming that Russia is behind any previously revealed "editions, plots and recordings".
The current Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan responded to the comments of his rival in the upcoming election and told his colleague that he should be ashamed.
"Now Mr. Kemal started teasing Russia. He says Russia manages elections in Turkey. Shame on you, shame on you. What if we say that America, England and Germany manage elections in Turkey?” Erdogan said.
On the another hand, Turkish Home Minister Suleyman Soylu accused the U.S. of interfering in the elections in Turkey, following the decision of 1 of the presidential candidates, Muharrem Ince, to retreat from the election race.
"The United States interferes with our elections. Everyone in this country already knows it, and president Joseph Biden himself said it. It is clear where the attack on Muharrem Ince candidate came from, and where it was coordinated. Last day Mr. Biden activated his people in Turkey," said Soylu CNN Turk.
Jacek Mędrzycki
