Donald Trump's return to the White home was accepted with mixed feelings by Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Turkish ACP Islamists.
During the erstwhile word of the Yankee tycoon, Turkey carried out 3 military operations in Syria, an offensive in Tripolitania, and assisted in information Azerbaijan during the winning Second War of advanced Karabach for him.
Especially affirmative was the Turkish administration's memory of the withdrawal of Yankee troops from the Syrian-Turkish border in October 2019, allowing Ankara to grow its military east of Euphrates. The Kirkuk-Ceyhan oil pipeline task remains on the table, whose oil from northern Iraq would sail towards the Mediterranean Sea through confederate Anatolia.
More doubts are raised in Ankara by announced nominations of the president-elect of stars and lanes. Typical National safety Advisor Mike Waltz is the head of the Kurdish lobby in legislature and opposes the U.S. withdrawal from Syria, seeing the hypothetical future Kurdistan as "second Israel"—an anchor of Western laicism, nationalism and modernity among patriarchal arabian strains. Independent Kurdistan would besides strengthen Iran and Russia, with which Turkey traditionally competes for influence in the region. The Sultan fears that in the case of the Kurdish issue, pro-Russian Eurasians may return to Turkish politics Dog Perinçeka, against which the Anatolian leader warns the political head of the NATO "deep state" in Turkey Devlet Bahçeli – as the actual leader of the Grey Wolf, he invited Abdullah Öcalana, in exchange for releasing him from a life prison on Imrali Island, to give a speech before the Grand National Assembly, in which he would call on the Kurdistan Workers organization to resolve itself, which would trigger the process of regulating the Kurdish issue. However, so far, the leader of Kurdish nationalists feels safer in Turkish prison than he could be at large.
Reis besides has origin for concern about the nomination Marco Rubio Head of State Department. The likely future host at Foggy Bottom is the head of the Gülenowski lobby in the parliament of stars and lanes. His close friend is simply a erstwhile basketball player Ernest Kanter, who was remembered as a media spokesperson for the assassins of July 15, 2016 and is now working more than anyone else to make the political legacy of his spiritual mentor, a liberal muslim preacher Fethullah Gülen, survived the death of its author.
Rubio, the boy of Cuban economical migrants, in his student years attending gay "foam parties" in Florida, has already entered China, Russia, Iran and Venezuela on his blacklist. Not very audible but well known to the curious are the common sympathy of Erdogan and Venezuelan caudillo Nicolása Maduro. Ankara and Caracas have, therefore, joined in fresh years very close, although alternatively discreet, economical and diplomatic ties. The black list of erstwhile Glenvar Heights strippers can so besides be found, alongside another "authoritarian regimes", besides a "homophobic" administration in Ankara.
This raises Reis' concern, although Trump's decisions on an increasingly wide scope of conflicts in the mediate East will be crucial to him. The winner of the November U.S. presidential election had already supported Israel's attack on Iran's atomic installations, but it besides opened up to an agreement with the muslim Republic. Ankara may effort to slip into the gap formed between these conflicting tendencies. The agreement of 2022 allowing aircraft with Star David to fly over the sky of Anatolia was not cancelled. The embargo imposed by Turkey on Israel is not enforced by it. Should the Abrahamic Agreements be extended to Saudi Arabia, located in the northern flank of Turkey, which is most likely 1 of the brokers of an agreement to halt fighting in Ukraine, could rebuild relations with Tel Aviv in exchange for returning to the F-35 programme.
The road seems to be rubbing in this case Olaf Scholz, which lifted the embargo on 12 October to buy Eurofigter by Turkey. On 6 August, the Turkish Defence Executive Committee led by Erdogan approved the Steel Dome (Çelik Kubbe) task to integrate all state anti-aircraft defence systems. All but those purchased in 2019 from Russia and the never utilized S-400 – the most advanced, most effective and most expensive. possibly this means Ankara's preparation for the deactivation and stripping of the S-400, which would then be resold to whoever pays more. The acquisition of systems for US$2.5 billion and the ensuing crisis in relations with the US would be the price of a geostrategic bluff that Reis may have utilized to buy the approval of stars and lanes for operations in Syria's Kurdistan and the closure of eyes by a Russian bear on Turkey's activity in the Zakaukazi.
But the Turks want to go back to the mediate East.. They are afraid that the presently raging exchange of punches between Israel and Iran is in fact a controlled staging, preparing the ground under the Washington-Tehran agreement akin to that of 2015. The Persians would then receive a protectorate over Syria and participation in condominiums in Lebanon and Iraq. For Ankara, it is an alarming prospect, so Sultan can make another political turn to prevent its destruction. With Washington Ankara may clash in northeastern Syria where the Yankees are based on the Kurds in the fight against the muslim State, while working with the US in north-western Syria, where the Anatolian Tellurocracy has the most troops, becoming an ally of North American thalassocracy in force on Assad and Russia. Stars and belts besides welcomed Turkish intervention in Tripolitania, which prevented Wagner's Group from taking control of Libya.
In Ukraine, Turkish drones, the ineptness of the Kremlian leadership and the mud of Ukrainian steppes broke the Russian blitzkrieg in the spring of 2022. Ankara's policy was and remains pro-Ukrainian, but it is not anti-Russian. Turkey remained open to Russian investments without which Reis would lose the May presidential election. The suspicion of Rubio's reluctance to Ankara already present has led to a simplification in Turkey's volume of common trade with Russia and may consequence in Anatolia no longer being a platform for Moscow to circumvent Western sanctions. The Sultan may sacrifice relations with Putin to save Turkey's position in the mediate East and its access to Western military technologies.
To date, the Cremol Tsar did not like Ankara's support for Zelenski, but he appreciated that Turkey did not shut down the markets and airspace for Russia, which thwarted the western plan to strangle Moscow with sanctions. Washington, Moscow or Kiev are not full satisfied with Ankara's attitude towards the war in Ukraine, however, Erdogan is the only 1 who can simultaneously talk to Biden, Trump, Putin and Zelenski. This means that a possible agreement to halt fighting in chaotic Fields will be signed in Istanbul.
There is inactive the African issue – marginal to the US, but increasingly crucial to Turkey. Trump's return is likely to mean a simplification in humanitarian aid to stars and lanes for sub-Saharan Africa and to trust more heavy on private investment. Washington's engagement in the Black Land is likely to have an even clearer anti-Chinese blade. The White home will make the concept of an anchor, based on privileged relations with key countries, encouraging them to grow their influences but not straight engaged in the military.
During his first term, Trump built close relations with the Prime Minister of Ethiopia Abiy AhmedWhich his successor in the White home has marginalized for rapprochement with the president of Kenya William Ruto. Trump's return so means renewing his efforts to include Ethiopia, 1 of the poles of economical growth in Africa present alongside Nigeria, into the orbit of Yankee influences and drawing it distant from Zhongguó. Trump will most likely besides walk distant from equal-distance policy towards the parties to the conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo, explicitly supporting the president Félix Tshisekedi against Rwanda, hoping to transform Kinshasa's average skepticism towards Beijing into an open hostility to the Chinese dragon. The infrastructure is expected to invest stars and lanes in the Angolan Lobito Corridor, which would marginalise Europeans and exploit Starlink's potential. Trump's protective urges may lead to the abandonment of the so-far crucial instrument of the Washington African Growth and chance Act (AGOA) of 2000.
Ankara's activity on this background appears as a supplemental presence of Washington. Before Erdogan came, Turkey practically did not be in sub-Saharan Africa. She kept a twelve embassies in about forty countries. Reis led to the beginning of Turkish representations in virtually all capitals of the region. Turkish Airlines fly to almost all major cities, replacing Air France as the primary link between the Black Land and the remainder of the world. Turkey, like China, builds infrastructure in Africa, offers military aid, finances governments without requiring them to liberalize their strategy and civilization.
In the beginning of the second decade of the 21st century, Sultan made an ambitious effort to reconstruct the Ottoman Empire based on the Muslim Brotherhood. The 1 then owned by the Anatolian abroad Minister Ahmeta Davutoglu The task was a disaster. The brothers failed to gain power in Tunisia, Libya or Syria. They only got it for a while in Egypt. The Sudan ruled by them first lost its wealthiest confederate provinces and then they lost control of what was left of it. Recently, the Muslim Brotherhood in the Gaza Strip has besides been devastated during the war with Israel. As allies, Ankara remained only the governments of Tripolitania, Qatar and Iraqi Kurdistan.
In the wake of the disaster of the neo-Osmanian project, Reis resigned his intention to redefine the global identity of the Turkish Republic. The symbol of this surrender was his separation from Davutoglu, although the actual reasons for the departure of the abroad Minister (and later Prime Minister) were deeper. Another variable was the failure of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In February 2020 Erdogan stepped down to Putin in Syrian Idilb. 2 years later, it was decided that the Moscow Tsar would not win Kiev, and in Eurasia there would not be a Tellurocratic geopolitical constellation in which Anatolia would gotta find a place for itself. Turkey's projects to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and the BRICS+ Sultan began to treat likewise as buying S-400 – not as a real geopolitical alternate to Western structures, but as a bargaining chip in negotiations with the US over the level of Turkish autonomy within these structures.
Turkey remains in NATO, but it is no longer the same NATO as in the 20th century: there have been non-liberal governments specified as Turkish and Hungarian, ready to apply the veto law to realise their own state. There is no exclusion or suspension procedure in the rights of a associate of the Pact, so Washington must have the autonomy of non-liberal force centres. NATO is no longer the broadcast belt of liberal star and belt politics. Forced to abandon Neo-Osmanian dreams, Sultan revives Gaullism, saying to the Yankees, “Yes, we stand 2 feet in NATO and want to stay in NATO, but we will not do everything you want and we will not hesitate to exercise the right of veto.” This arrangement gives emergence to frustration both in Ankara and in Washington, D.C., but developments in the planet have condemned Trump and Erdogan to stay in a common geopolitical constellation. Even if they both look at each another under their heads.
Ronald Lasecki
photo of wikipedia
Think Poland, No. 51-52 (15-29.12.2024)
