Politologist Prof. Jarosław Flis estimated that late the candidate KO for president Rafał Trzaskowski "gives votes" to the left and Szymon Holownia (Poland 2050), and Sławomir Mentzen (Confederation) supported by the Law and Justice Office Karol Nawrock. The expert added that candidates receive a lesson in humility, and voters are not concreted.
Average in PAP analysis Results of the last 5 presidential polls, carried out by various investigation centres, indicate that:
candidate KO Rafał Trzaskowski achieves 31.6%,
supported by PiS Karol Nawrocki - 24.0%,
Confederate candidate Sławomir Mentzen - 13.62 percent,
Third Way candidate Simon Holovnia - 7.1 percent,
Total candidate Adrian Zandberg - 4.6 percent,
Left candidate Magdalena Biejat - 4.2 percent,
candidate of the Confederation of the Polish Crown Grzegorz Braun - 2.7 percent,
Krzysztof Stanowski - 2.4 percent,
Free Republican candidate Marek Jakubiak - 1,2 percent.
The average was calculated on the basis of the polls: IPSOS for TVP Info of April 16, Opinion24 for Pulse Opinion of April 16, IBRiS for Polsat of April 17, IBRiS for "Politics" of April 17, and United Surveys for Virtual Poland.
Prof. Jarosław Flis from the Jagiellonian University commenting for PAP fresh polls, highlighted the decline in support for Rafał Trzaskowski. Flis indicated that these losses are not incurred to Karol Nawrocki. "These are losses to another candidates of the ruling camp, or in any case the 2023 legislature Pact, including Zandberg," he said. In his opinion, we are dealing with the activation of Magdalena Biejat (Levice), Adrian Zandberg (Together) and Szymon Holownia (Poland 2050).
Flis besides noted that Slawomir Mentzen's ratings are decreasing (Confederation) which "returns votes" by Nawrock. "A Trzaskowski casts votes of the left and Holownia" - he said.
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Prof. Flis recalled that there was a minute erstwhile Trzaskowski had a large advantage, and that was erstwhile Mentzen began to approach Nawrocki in the polls. "It's hard to imagine now that Mentzen regained the dynamics he had at the beginning of the year, but things could happen," said Flis. Referring mostly to the polls, he emphasized that "not all trend is any kind of slanting equal".
Flis was asked if inactive Trzaskowski and Nawrocki were the main candidates to enter a possible II circular of elections and whether "duopol PO and PiS stick tight". "It appears that it holds on harder, but above all due to the fact that another forces make mistakes. It's clear Before fat loses weight, skinny dies of starvation. If a large organization makes a mistake, it falls a bit, but it's inactive a large party. And if a tiny organization makes a mistake, it is gone" - said the expert.
But - as he pointed out - it inactive does not change the fact that those who win the election in the 2nd circular will decide the voters of those another candidates who do not get to the 2nd round. "So it's a small bit that the PiS and the PO stack the tracks and the another parties rearrange the crossovers," said the professor.
He stressed that pay for mistakes in the campaign. "And this is very affirmative news that voters are looking at what is happening, change their mind, in a sense they are not concrete. And they find out and Trzaskowski, and Nawrocki, and Mentzen - all have their humility lessons" said Flis.
Source: PAP
