Trzaskowski at Chele: The poll reveals amazing support for Mentzen in the presidential race

Latest survey by Opinion24 for ZET radio It sheds fresh light on the Polish political scene before the 2025 presidential election. Test results, based on CATI method and carried out on a example 1000 Poles days 23-29 January 2025., show that Rafał Trzaskowski keeps the advantage, but among the counter-candidates it Sławomir Mentzen stands out as the top threat in a possible clash in the second round. Below is simply a detailed analysis of the results and their relevance to the upcoming electoral campaign.

Trzaskowski's dominance in the second round

In the script where Rafał Trzaskowski it's facing Karol NawrockiTrzaskowski wins 56% votes, and Nawrocki gets 44%. specified a consequence indicates a clear advantage for the first of these candidates. Interestingly, the support for Trzaskowski is peculiarly strong among women – until 63% women declare support for him, while among men the consequence is only 37%. On the another hand, Karol Nawrocki has greater assurance among men (52%), and only 48% women could vote for him.

Trzaskowski duel – Mentzen: Key demographic differences

The next part of the survey analyses the hypothetical clash between Rafał Trzaskowski a Sławomir Mentzen. In this configuration Trzaskowski gets 54% votes while Mentzen wins 46%. Although the percent difference is smaller, these results shed light on the changing preferences of voters:

• Mentzen gaining far greater support among men – 54% respondents to this sex declare a vote for him.
• Trzaskowski He dominates among the women who give him 62% Voices.
• In the age group 40-49 yearsMentzen achieves awesome 54% support, which may indicate strong relations with voters from this range.

This data suggests that despite the clear advantage of Trzaskovsky, Sławomir Mentzen has the possible to win the second round, especially erstwhile the run focuses on mobilising younger and male voters.

Nawrocka's Screenplay – Mentzen: Challenges for Both Candidates

The survey besides takes into account the anticipation of competing between Karol Nawrocki a Sławomir Mentzen. In this variant Nawrocki wins with the consequence 53% Votes and Mentzen wins 47%. There are interesting differences in sex preferences:

• Women They are more frequently in favour of Nawrocki, granting him 61% Voices.
• Male but they would mostly choose Mentzen – 54% respondents to this sex declare support for him.

It is besides worth noting that Mentzen has the top support among the youngest voters, making him an attractive candidate for the group, which is increasingly affecting the election outcome.

Trzaskowski – Hołownia: Another dimension of competition

The survey besides takes into account a hypothetical match between Rafał Trzaskowski a Simon Holovnia. In this script Trzaskowski wins awesome 65% votes, while the Holownia receives 35%. An analysis of the results by sex indicates that:

• Trzaskowski is supported 63% Male and 68% Women.
• It is worth noting that if there were a clash between Hołownia and Nawrocki, Hołownia would win, winning 56% Voices.

Such results stress that each script of the second circular brings unique challenges and opportunities for candidates. Trzaskovsky's strong support, especially among women, can be a key origin in the result of the elections. However, increasing importance Mentzena among men and younger voters is an crucial component that can influence the campaign.

The relevance of poll results to the election campaign

The experts have stressed that the results of the survey are highly crucial in preparation for the 2025 presidential election. Rafał Trzaskowski, which is presently a favorite, however, has to face expanding support for Sławomir Mentzenwho can play a decisive function in the second round. The differentiation of results depending on sex and age groups indicates that the election run should be precisely tailored to the needs and expectations of different segments of the electorate.

Campaign should focus on:

• Mobilising young voterswho show greater support for Mentzen.
• Building assurance among womenWhere Trzaskovsky's advantage is clear.
• Use of demographic differencesto better communicate electoral programmes and remittances tailored to circumstantial social groups.

Demographic data, specified as 56% vs 44% in the duel of Trzaskowski – Nawrocki or 65% in the clash of Trzaskowski – Hołownia, they show that each candidate has its strengths, but besides areas where he must make additional efforts. Future investigation and intensive analysis of electoral trends will be crucial to defining the final form of the campaign.

Conclusions and projections

Analysis of the latest poll clearly shows that Rafał Trzaskowski He has a solid position as a favourite in the presidential election. Nevertheless, expanding possible Sławomir Mentzen Among men and younger voters, he may surprise both his competitors and political phase observers. In the event of a possible clash in the second round, the differences in demographic preferences may find the final outcome.

In the face of this data, electoral campaigns should focus on:

• Adjustment of transmission to circumstantial electoral groups.
• Strengthening communication on key programming points that respond to electorate expectations.
• Monitoring current trends and respond rapidly to changing social sentiments.

It will be decisive not only to win votes, but besides to be able to unite different social groups around the imagination of the future of Poland. As the elections approach, the results of subsequent polls will be a key analytical tool for both candidates and their staff.

In summary, the latest survey provides many valuable information about the current political climate in Poland. Rafał Trzaskowski maintains a leading position, but Sławomir Mentzen It is gaining strength, which makes competition highly fierce. Political scene observers should follow developments closely, as all vote, all run strategy and any change in social sentiment can have a decisive impact on the result of the 2025 presidential election.