The situation in the mediate East has spent years sleeping with many politicians. According to publicist Constantine Gebert, the region has late undergone a "big change in the arrangement of forces", most of which Iran has lost. However, the expert expressed hope that the US would not attack the country. "There is no basis in global law that would let specified an attack," he stated in Polsat News.
- I'm sorry. There is simply a very large change in the power strategy in the mediate East. (...) The most crucial change is not the increase in the military power of Israel, but the spectacular defeat of Iran - said writer Constanty Gebert in the program "The Most crucial Questions".
"Iran remains a very powerful country"
According to him, "Iran based his military power on 2 sets of factors". "One was his own weaponry and atomic program, which never led to the construction of an atomic bomb, while he acted on the side of atomic intimidation psychology, and the another was organizations allied with Iran, or Hezbollah in Lebanon, the government of Assad and Hamas in Gaza," he stated.
- I'm sorry. In another words, Iran's strategy was based on the presumption that Israel might engage in any conflict with Iran, but the awareness that in the event of a full-scale war would be attacked by Hamas, Hezbollah and Syria, limited the anticipation of Israeli consequence to Iranian action - he explained.
- I'm sorry. Meanwhile, it turned out that all Iranian allies had failed. Hamas suffered a spectacular military defeat, Hezbollah suffered a spectacular defeat, the Assad government was overthrown, and Israelis liquidated the Iranian rocket defence program. Then it turned out that Iran was incapable to carry out its threats.
However, the expert warns against disregarding Iran. " Iran remains a very powerful country and we should hope that the Americans will not attack it due to the fact that there is no basis in global law that would let specified an attack," he stressed.
According to him, not even Israel's arguments are specified a basis for attack that Iran, erstwhile developing its atomic program, is an existential threat to them. "In the light of global law, this is not adequate reason to start action," he added.
"Despite and shameful". Expert on Trump's words
He recalled that last year, after another fire in the situation, the Israelis persuaded Americans not to strike just due to the fact that "the beginning of a fresh front with Iran would dramatically complicate and so complicated a situation."
The expert stated that Americans should not respond to protests in Iran either. He recalled that authoritative government sources talk of 3300 dead, while the opposition speaks of as many as 30,000 victims.
"The slaughter committed by the Ajatollah government on the streets of Iranian cities is disastrous and shameful. This deprived this government of legitimacy erstwhile and for all, but I would not like to live in a planet in which countries decide to attack another country, due to the fact that they do not like the interior policy of this country - he explained.
- I'm sorry. These words of Trump to the protesting Iranians, that endure, the rescue is on the way, are something shameful and reprehensible - he said.
He recalled the words of U.S. president George H.W. Bush during the First Gulf War, which caused the Kurds and Sunni Arabs to emergence against Saddam Hussein and both uprisings were bloodyly suppressed due to the fact that the Americans did not intervene.
- I'm sorry. You can't do that. American intervention could weaken the Ajatollah regime, but it is impossible to change the government from the air. And Iran is simply a immense country where 90 million people live," he stressed.
"Foreign military intervention won't help"
According to him, no substance what the Iranians think of their regime, it is highly doubtful that they would enthusiastically welcome a abroad invasion of another state.
- I'm sorry. It is besides unclear what the current government would replace. The thought of Rez Pahlaw's boy coming back to the throne was rather enthusiastic in Iran, due to the fact that it is the only individual who responds to the thought of what change might look like. But he is simply a completely unprovoked leader, it is not known whether he enjoys any real support," he said.
As he said, "the desperate situation in Iran will gotta solve someway the Iranians themselves". - Military intervention from outside will not aid - he said.
- I'm sorry. It is to be believed that this government is indeed catching up. Let us remember that the muslim Republic has existed longer than the PRL existed. The most likely is an interior change of power in which the Ayatollahs will replace the commander of the Revolutionary Guard," he said.
- I'm sorry. So I am more inclined to opt to change power from the hands of the Ayatollahs to a more technocratic government managed by the Revolutionary Guard, provided their economical interests stay intact - he concluded.
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