Trump present announces a “big trade agreement” with Britain

President Donald Trump announced that an crucial trade agreement would be announced on Thursday — a origin acquainted with the administration plans told CNN that the agreement would be concluded with the United Kingdom. This is another signal that it is possible to mitigate historically advanced tariffs, which have threatened serious harm to the US economy and the world.

"A large press conference this morning at 10:00 a.m., Oval Office, on THE large TRADE AGREEMENT WITH THE REPRESENTATIVES OF THE large AND VERY ESTIMATED COUNTRY. FIRST OF MANY!!!” Trump published on Wednesday evening On fact Social.

In his post, Trump did not specify which country it was, but his administration suggested that he lead active negotiations with India, large Britain, South Korea and Japan. Trump's Chief Trade Advisor, Peter Navarro, said on Tuesday CNN that he suspected that Britain might be the first country to sign a trade agreement with the United States.

“I don’t know if there will be Britain or India first, it is — we have a tiny twist of action in India’s history, so it may slow things down, but I can assure the Americans that there will be deals and they will be very beneficial to the Americans,” Navarro said. Financial Times reported on Tuesday that the trade agreement with Britain could be signed this week and could exempt the United States from any non-tariff trade barriers, including 2% of the digital service taxation charged by Britain on American technology companies. In return, the United States can alleviate the UK tariff burden, possibly reducing or releasing the country from 25% of tariffs on aluminum, steel and cars, gave FT.

For weeks now, Trump officials have been saying that they are talking to more than a twelve countries and are close to concluding a contract, but so far no have been announced. Trump has frequently said that he is not in a hurry to sign the agreement, claiming that countries have been "stealing" America for years, and that the advanced duties imposed by the United States will aid balance trade.

It is improbable that this is simply a real “offence”

Despite the rhetoric of the administration that it is in the process of advanced trade negotiations with more than a twelve countries, actual trade agreements require quite a few time, frequently years to negociate them. They usually include highly complex agreements, delving into the details of different goods and non-tariff barriers. They frequently include crucial political considerations due to the fact that different parties effort to defend voters with peculiar interests.

Instead, the “agreement” Trump announced is alternatively a memorandum of understanding. This may consequence in lower customs tariffs for goods from 1 peculiar country in the close future, but this will not bring crucial economical triumph for a long time.

And this is just 1 agreement. The ‘reciprocal’ tariffs, which entered into force on 7 April and were suspended for 90 days on 9 April, concern tens of countries. About a 100 others are subject to a 10% universal customs tariff. The administration can't do all this by July 8. "The 90-day tariff break, which has already exceeded about 25%, leaves small time for typical trade discussions which require months, if not years, to make a trade agreement," said Jacob Jensen, a trade policy analyst at the American Action Forum, a centre-right political institution. "There is simply a crucial difference between whether these contracts are official, written trade agreements or verbal commitments to buy more American products due to the fact that 1 has long-term economical implications and the another can be ignored in the long term," he added.

Trump said last period that it would not extend tariffs for the second time – and could even take faster action to reconstruct any tariffs to countries with which its administration could not agree, possibly within a fewer weeks. "It will be hard for the U.S. trade typical to negociate possibly 100 separate trade agreements within 90 days, which means that president Trump must shortly decide whether the duties will be reinstated or their introduction will be further delayed," said Jensen.

And even if agreements are yet concluded with all countries, there is no warrant that Trump will keep them. For example, Trump, in his first term, played a key function in the negotiations of the USMCA free trade agreement with Canada and Mexico, only to abandon it in his second term, imposing a 25% work on any Mexican and Canadian goods that were introduced once, once, no. And by imposing crucial duties on virtually all goods imported to the United States, Trump besides destroyed a number of existing trade deals with allies.

Deescalation marks

Trump's announcement of the trade agreement is the second crucial signal this week that the administration may be open to negotiations that will yet lead to a simplification in certain duties imposed on abroad countries.

On Tuesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reported that he and United States Trade typical Jamieson Greer go to Geneva, Switzerland where they meet their Chinese counterparts. Although Bessent told Fox News not to anticipate a serious trade agreement after meetings, he admitted that it was an crucial step in negotiations and possibly relieve tensions which led the United States to impose at least 145% of the work on most Chinese goods. China, on the another hand, imposed 125% of its duties on American goods.

Trump, however, said on Wednesday that it would not reduce the advanced duties imposed on China before the talks began, which Beijing had previously defined as a precondition for the talks. When asked in the Oval Office if it was open to withdrawing historically advanced duties to force China to negotiate, Trump simply replied, "No". Nevertheless, any thawing end of the trade war can be a good sign for businesses and consumers in both countries and worldwide. Customs penalties have already harmed economies around the planet — peculiarly American. The US economy has retreated in the first quarter, which was its first contraction in 3 years, as the companies collected goods pending Trump's work on the occasion of the "Day of Liberation" which entered into force in the second quarter.

Although the trade deadlock between China and the US is by far the most aggressive, Trump besides imposed advanced duties on most another countries worldwide: a 10% universal work on virtually all goods imported into the United States, as well as a 25% work on steel, aluminum, cars, car parts and any goods from Mexico and Canada. Therefore, the full planet will be eagerly watching Thursday's announcement and US-China talks this weekend.

Federal Reserve president Jerome Powell said on Wednesday at a press conference that customs could seriously harm the economy of America. However, he said that the trade talks the United States has with abroad countries could prevent the worst scenario.

Global economists from the global Monetary Fund, the OECD and the planet Bank predicted that Trump's trade war would have disastrous effects on the planet economy, drastically slowing down growth in any countries and at the same time sparking inflation. Many U.S. economists and large banks foretell that the United States can enter a recession this year.