Trump's fresh maneuver "Customs as a tool for political blackmail"

Subject substance for imposing duties on countries European Union returns in speeches Donald Trump Like a boomerang. Last call New US President However, it appears from journalists that there is not yet a circumstantial timetable to show what this process would look like in practice, but as the U.S. media said, Trump was expected to say that “it will surely happen rather quickly”.

Trump has an opinion on US trade relations with Europe. It fits into his broader position of perception United States as a country mistreated by its partners, as Trump – as announced – intends to change. Trump likes to say that “The United States has been deceived by virtually all country in the world“ This is where most of the problems his country has to deal with. This besides applies to European Union.

"The European Union treats us very badly. They don't take our cars, they don't take our agricultural products. They don't actually accept anything. We have a immense trade deficit with the European Union. We will so take very decisive action towards the European Union. We will bring trade to the level at which it should be – he said Donald Trumpasked about this issue.

– And if we are talking about the European Union, it is impossible not to mention NATO, they are mostly the same group of countries. Until I arrived, we covered almost 100 percent of NATO's costs, only to get bad trade deals. Now the situation has leveled out, but it is inactive very unfair – he added President of the United States.

Donald Trump's erstwhile customs decisions especially on Mexico and Canada indicate that newPresident of the United States treats them more as a political tool than a real desire for concrete economical impacts.

Import from Mexico and Canada to be subject to a work of 25% (except for 10% for energy natural materials from Canada), and imports from China – 10% of fresh duties are to be added to existing duties.

After the decision was announced Trump However, suspended the entry into force of fresh customs duties for Mexico and Canada for 30 days. As he explained, this was the consequence of talks and negotiations with the leaders of these countries, as well as forcing promises on them to seal borders. This is not only about the influx of illegal immigrants, but besides about the fight against the smuggling of fentanyl.

– Clearly, the goal Donald Trump was not just economical pressure. The fresh president treats customs as a tool for political blackmail, which aims to force policy change by China, Canada or Mexico. It is mainly about preventing the production and smuggling of drugs and stopping illegal immigration into the US – he comments with Interia Mateusz Piotrowski, United States analyst from the Polish Institute of global Affairs.

– I think the first nonsubjective Trump He was different. He wanted the duties to become effective and that was originally the point. possibly his surroundings were frightened by the real economical impact of specified a decision. Especially as PR Trump He got out of it very well. For interior use, he will convince that he has achieved his goals and that this was his plan from the beginning," he adds. American.

How, then, European Union should see the announcements Trump related to the imposition of duties and suspension of existing duties (up to March duties on steel and aluminium are suspended)?

– Canada and Mexico in negotiations with Trump First, they applied a retaliatory policy, threatening to impose their own customs duties on American goods, to go to the convenient compromise for Trump, which he can usage in interior policy. European Commission at the time of the imposition of duties on the Union, it will face a akin challenge and should be prepared, both for an economical and purely political consequence – points out Mateusz Piotrowski from PISM.

Donald Trump In the run and after the elections, he repeatedly referred to the issue of trade surplus in EU-US relations, so it should not be assumed that he would abruptly give up. The question is – which script will choose, more or little beneficial for the Union.

Let us remind, according to Eurostat data in 2023 EU surplus trade with the US was EUR 158 billion. This means that EU countries exported in 2023 to the United States goods worth EUR 502 billion while importing goods worth EUR 344 billion. United States is the largest exporter of goods from the EU (represents 19.7% of full exports outside the Union) and the second largest import partner to the Union (including 13.7 percent of imports outside the Union).

– Following the announcements of the imposition of duties on Canada and Mexico, the president of Canada and the Prime Minister of Mexico placed ready-made legislative solutions, namely specifics, on the table over the weekend. I think the European Commission should have ready arguments in the form of both analyses and calculations as well as legal solutions, which can be implemented rapidly – he points out in an interview with Interia economist Dr. Sławomir Dudek, president of the Institute of Public Finance.

While talking to the European Commission, Trump may besides want to play another crucial issues for American companies.

– Take, for example, the digital marketplace that the European Union wants to regulate, which the American BigTech do not peculiarly like. It cannot be excluded that specified cases will be part of the hard negotiations between the European Commission and Donald Trump – points out Mateusz Piotrowski from PISM.

Dr Sławomir Dudek In an interview with Interia, he explains that much will depend on the script Trump will apply to the Union and whether it will be a “light” or “full” version.

– The light version assumed that duties would be imposed on selected products alternatively than on everything. However, the example of Canada and Mexico shows that Trump is going into a full version, which has been faced with a strong exchange reaction. The question is whether this 30-day suspension of customs duties on Mexico and Canada was not related. On the 1 hand, we have an economical risk, on the another hand, the electoral promises that Trump made and that he must someway meet – he comments Dr Sławomir Dudek.

The economist besides points out that the specified fact of speaking about customs war destabilises the economy and can have a negative impact on investment.

– Business is about long-term planning, and how to plan a fresh investment, erstwhile it is not known if fresh duties will enter in a minute that will make it unprofitable. The same applies to loans and banks that can hold back backing due to precarious circumstances. This is all closely related – points out Dr. Sławomir Dudek.

"If the Americans impose duties on Europe and the Chinese effort to sale as much of their goods in Europe, the current European Union policy with the Green Deal will be the nail to the coffin of European competitiveness," he predicted. Former Prime Minister, without besides excluding the script that the imposition of advanced duties will yet not take place.

– I do not exclude that, through strong declarations and commitments to implement certain solutions towards the European Union, Brussels will change its attitude so that severe economical and commercial repercussions from the US will not be necessary. However, in all situation, the change on the EU side will should be very profound, he said Mateusz Morawiecki.

– As Poland takes over the Presidency in Council of the European Union, Europe seems to lose momentum, innovation and competitive advantage – he observed RadosławSikorski. He besides recalled that in 1992 the EU's share of global GDP was 29 percent, and present it is 17 percent. He added that pandemic increased economical problems, a War in Ukraine exposed shortcomings in European defence.

Kamila Baranowska