Donald Trump's decision of 2 April 2025 to impose draconian duties on Chinese goods, named by him “Liberation Day”, and the subsequent exclusion of China from the 90-day withdrawal period triggered an immediate crisis in commercial relations. Although the U.S. administration hoped to weaken Beijing's position, the analysis of data from the 1920s-2025s indicates that China is present better prepared for a confrontation, while the US is risking a repeat of costly mistakes from the erstwhile trade war.
When Donald Trump, returning to the White home on 2 April 2025, announced fresh duties on Chinese goods—up to 60% in the case of advanced technologies—the marketplace reaction was immediate. In just a week, the S&P 500 index lost 7% of its value, and Chinese factories began to halt the execution of orders, causing visible disruptions in global supply chains. Especially severe were the increases in customs duties (summaristic even before the “Liberation Day”) for semi-conductors (45%), batteries for electrical vehicles (50%) and pharmaceuticals (30%), which Beijing explicitly defined as Act of economical War.
China did not gotta wait long to respond. Within 48 hours of the announcement of the U.S. customs, Beijing introduced a full embargo on the import of soya and maize from the US, reaching for a previously proven retaliation mechanism. Data from the 1920s-2024 clearly show that China is presently far little dependent on US supplies than in the erstwhile trade war.
By 2023, as much as 85% of Chinese soybean imports came from Brazil, while in 2018 this share was 60%.
At the same time Beijing hit delicate points in the US economy, including giving up imports of American liquefied natural gas – a product crucial to Trump's political base.
This situation is simply a clear echo of the 2018 events, erstwhile the first tariff wave hit primarily American farmers. Then the value of soya exports to China fell from $12 billion in 2017 to just 3.1 billion in 2018. Despite government compensation of US$28 billion between 2018 and 2020, many farmers never regained their erstwhile position on the market. Even in 2024, soy prices in the US were 15% lower than before the outbreak of the erstwhile conflict, which clearly demonstrates the sustainability of the effects of Chinese controversies.
In parallel, Beijing strengthened economical cooperation with ASEAN countries (the 2024 agreement) and increased investment in Africa, diversifying the sources of natural materials and outlets.
The decisions taken by the Trump administration in April 2025 seem to ignore the key conclusions of the erstwhile trade war. While China is now better prepared to face – thanks to diversification of supplies, the improvement of its own technologies and fresh trade alliances – the US risks repeating costly mistakes. Data from 2023-2024 clearly show that the American economy is inactive experiencing the effects of erstwhile frictions, while Beijing consistently reduces its dependence on the West. In this situation, a fresh tariff wave can bring more losses than benefits, especially for key sectors of the American economy.
Source:
- Agricultural trade reports USDA (2023-2025)
- China Customs import statistic (2023-2024)
- Market analyses Bloomberg (April 2025)
- CSIS reports on US-China relations (2024)
- Stock data S&P 500 (April 2025)
- Official Communications of the Ministry of Trade of the People's Republic of China (2025)
Leszek B. Glass
Email: [email protected]
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