In east Europe, between Moldova and Ukraine, lies a small, unrecognized global community of Transnistria. For any it is simply a museum of the post-Soviet past, where time stopped in the early 1990s, for others – a real threat to the safety of the east flank of Europe. In the face of Russian aggression against Ukraine and the deepening geopolitical crisis, it is worth asking: is Transnistria just a forgotten enclave, or is it an inflammatory point that can detonate at any moment?
History of the region
Transnistria, declared independency in 1990, just before the breakup USSR. This was a consequence to the increasing nationalist sentiment in Moldova and plans to unite with Romania. This region was powerfully affected, industrialized and inhabited by the Russian- and Ukrainian-speaking population. It was an industrial base for the remainder of the republic, which remained mostly agricultural and Romanian-speaking. The people of east Moldova feared cultural and linguistic marginalisation. In 1992 there was a short but intense armed conflict between Moldovan forces and separatists supported by the 14th russian Army. The ceasefire has maintained the position quo that is inactive in force today.
Unrecognised State
Although Transnistria is not formally recognised by any associate State UN, functions as a separate republic – with its own government, parliament, armed forces, currency and national symbols. In Transnistria, symbols of the USSR are inactive used: a sickle and a hammer, red flags, as well as monuments of Lenin. The authorities have consistently maintained the prophetic narrative, both in school textbooks and in the media.
The existence of this pseudostate is possible thanks to the support of the Russian Federation – political, financial and military. In Transnistrian territory, a Russian military contingent is stationed, which allegedly protects immense ammunition warehouses in Kolbasna, inherited from the USSR. However, the presence of these troops raises serious global concerns.
The geopolitical importance of Transnistria
Strategic location of Transnistria on the border with Ukraine, close Odessa – a key port on the Black Sea – makes the region of large military importance. During the war between Russia and Ukraine there was speculation that the Kremlin might effort to open a second front just from Transnistrian territory. Although this script has not yet occurred, its anticipation is inactive not completely excluded.
At the same time, Moldova has been trying to join the European Union since 2022. This does not like Moscow, which has been utilizing Transnistria for years as a tool of force on Moldova. The authorities in Tiraspol in March 2024 formally asked Russia to “protect” against alleged force from Chisinau.
Sheriff – the company that rules the country
The regular life of the people of Transnistria is under political suspension. The region suffers from chronic economical problems, advanced emigration and limited access to abroad investment. The main livelihoods are aid from Russia, smuggling and respective large industrial plants. However, the most crucial economical entity is Sheriff – a company founded in 1993 by 2 erstwhile safety officers. It operates in almost all key sectors of the Transnistrian economy. It has its own supermarket network “Sheriff”, petrol stations, tv channels, media, and even a football club – Sheriff Tiraspol.
In addition to the economical monopoly, the company besides has strong links with power. Many politicians and officials have previously worked in Sheriff or working with the company, making it the actual board of Transnistria.
The future of Transnistria – is it possible to unite?
The anticipation of joining Transnistria in Moldova remains unexplained, but is crucial in the context of Moldova's candidacy for the European Union. Russia does not intend to quit its sphere of influence, and Transnistria itself shows no desire to negociate under Chisinau conditions. Moldova's neutrality or the peculiar position of autonomy for Transnistria could be an alternative, but no lasting agreements have been reached so far. This autonomous region is not only a tourist attraction for visitors to Moldova, but besides a real threat to its stability.
