- The later, if at all, there will be a decision on the introduction of border control with Germany, the worse for the ruling, says sociologist Marcin Palade. According to the expert, the issue of migration is "an component that can overthrow the current government coalition" and even origin early parliamentary elections. - It will affect our safety assessment," he said in "The Event Guest".
In the Sunday edition of the program "Guest of Events" sociologist of politics Marcin Palade was asked about the latest parliamentary poll. It implies that Civil Coalition noted a decrease in support by respective percent points, and the leader position was planned Law and Justice.
According to a survey of the IBRiS studio for Onetu, the PiS would vote 30.5 percent. respondents and on the KO, which took the second place - 25.8%. polled. This consequence means that the formation has passed a decrease compared to the last poll o 7.6 percent points
SEE: The latest parliamentary poll. 1 organization with a powerful fall in support
- I'm sorry. Current policies influence polls. For now, we're talking about a dispute about legalising elections. There are besides another factors, equally important, which, as it were, after being sworn in by the president Karol Nawrocki - he'll deny the election. This is simply a substance of security, what happens on Polish-German border - says politician sociologist Marcin Palade.
A dramatic decline in support for KO. "Regrouping of electorates"
According to the expert, the situation at the border is "big and developmental problem". - This is the beginning of a process that awaits us until we full enter into force migration pact. This is next year, he noted.
Palade estimated that "we are dealing with regrouping of electorates centreleft"
- I'm sorry. At the moment, what we are seeing is surely very beneficial to those political groups that have opposed the present European Union migration policyMore and more evidence of de facto deficiency of control over what is happening. It is not surprising, therefore, that they are increasing stronger and not only in Poland right-wing groups, but besides those with a more liberal approach - Palade assessed.
Asked by Grzegorz Kępka, whether this process will benefit the Law and Justice, the expert stated that "The PiS has this problem that in many cases it is unbelievablebecause of what he did in 2015-2023".
Border checks with Germany. "This could overturn the government coalition"
- I'm sorry. I think if the voter has a right-of-center view, he'll choose first. Confederation or Confederation of the Polish Crown Grzegorz Braunwhich were consistent with the opposition to EU migration policy. Law and Justice will not be the beneficiary," Palade noted.
- I'm sorry. It's in the polls. We are 19 months after the takeover by Donald Tusk's team, the centreleft and the main opposition organization of the PiS lost 5-6 percent points at that time. It is simply a failure of voters by 15-16 percent. The weakness of Tusk does not translate into the popularity of the largest opposition party, others gain - stressed the expert.
Palade was besides asked about the message Head of the Ministry of abroad Affairs Tomasz Siemoniak on the situation border with Germany and the possible introduction of controls.
- I'm sorry. It's a late move. In the case of this crew, we had many announcements, and then there were no materializing them. The later, if there's a move, the worse for the ruling coalition. This is the component - around migration - that could overturn the current government coalition and even trigger early parliamentary elections - Palade thinks.
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