“It will never be the same again. Poland must realize this.” Worldly valued political scientist predicts powerful changes in the world

On the 1 hand, he surely believes that he can gain more territory and, in principle, it is very crucial for him that all the territories he has incorporated into the Russian Federation stay his property. So freezing the conflict on this battlefield is not his dream scenario.

On the another hand, he wants to keep relations with American president Trump. It does not want to be seen as a major obstacle to peace, as it fundamentally believes that normalisation of relations between the United States and Russia is crucial for Trump and Ukraine is not so important.

So I will not be amazed if there is yet any kind of freeze. However, all parties are now trying to first take a stand towards their own public opinion. Secondly, against the global public, and thirdly, against the president of the United States.

What Putin does is weakness, tactical maneuver, or part of a broader plan?

There are different ways of reasoning on the Russian side. I cannot believe that the current front line is what the Russian side sees as the best scenario. On the another hand, the anticipation of abolishing sanctions and establishing completely different relations with the United States at the expense of Europe is something peculiarly attractive. It should be remembered that this is in line with 1 of Russia's strategical objectives. It is fundamentally about weakening the function of America in Europe. And surely Putin believes Trump is curious in the ceasefire and the peace process.

ALI HADER / PAP

Donald Trump

Donald Trump is simply a prisoner of his own voters, whom he promised the mountains, and now he has to fulfill these promises?

There's most likely more than 1 reason. Firstly, we should always be very fair, especially to those with whom we disagree. president Trump views the war in Ukraine differently than most European leaders. For most Europeans, this is simply a return to 1938. They see this as a minute erstwhile if Russia does not halt now, it can truly hazard much greater expansion of the Kremlin.

President Trump makes it very clear that although he is not a individual peculiarly curious in historical analogues, he sees this war as a situation akin to that of 1914. Basically, he sees the hazard of a sleeping planet entering a major atomic confrontation that will destruct everything. Therefore, deescalation is crucial for him.

Secondly, it is very crucial for him that he is very different from the erstwhile administration. The erstwhile administration was besides curious in changing the order of the economical and political world, but it was for her to do so together with allies. Therefore, the main instrument was sanctions. For Trump these are duties due to the fact that he believes alliances are more an obstacle to America's interests than an asset of American abroad policy.

A power concert?

When he went to Putin, he said: “Look, there are large states and tiny states. America is simply a large country. China is simply a large country. Russia is simply a large country. We are liable for managing the world." As a result, his position on Ukraine is very cynical. It's a smaller and weaker country. This is contrary to the heritage of American politics of the 20th century. Trump’s view can be summarised in respective sentences: “Look, there are so many tensions. The only way to deal with this is to agree between the large powers." It's a tough policy. In a planet like this, you don't want to be a tiny player, due to the fact that you're not the 1 to decide, you're the 1 to decide.

"Poland is an crucial country and has a very crucial geostrategic location"

You mentioned customs. Trump introduces them to at least partially retreat from them. He says "check"?

The thing is, you're starting a fewer games, and that's very important. He believes it. This is most likely due to his experience in the real property industry. You're considering the possibilities, and you're trying to see what works. Of course, customs have a different logic depending on your main expectations. What will be achieved? On the 1 hand, of course, he needs money to be able to lower taxes for Americans, which is very crucial from an economical point of view. On the another hand, he wants many companies to decision to the United States. This is where sectoral sanctions come in.

Is it just due to the fact that he promised people?

He promised, but does he believe it? I don't think he's doing any things due to the fact that he believes that they're most likely not going to deliver the expected results. This is besides very difficult. It could besides be dangerous. The most crucial thing for me, and it concerns Ukraine, but besides another specified initiatives, is that you can break a certain kind of situation, but then you should be patient. Later, details appear.

Should we ask if there will be a ceasefire? Who's gonna monitor it, what do you do? If individual breaks the ceasefire, what guarantees can the Ukrainians, for example, be able to convince them that it makes sense to stay in the country? I don't think he wants to be curious in this kind of thing. His main motive is that he wants to act rapidly and not waste time on details. But to be honest, politics depends on the details.

It all points to the fact that 1 of the advantages of Trump's administration is that it has put force on European countries to spend about 3, 4 or 5 percent of its GDP on defence. Europe can benefit from this. Do we see any another advantages?

There's 1 crucial thing about Trump. Now everyone should come up with a fresh policy, due to the fact that he surely broke the pattern. This is crucial due to the fact that Europe is abruptly beginning to take an interest in another parts of the world. For example, Europe would never be able to enter into a trade agreement with Latin America if it were not for Trump. Suddenly, Europeans have faced a kind of reality that we would otherwise effort not to measure.

It is besides about Europe's considerable technological dependence on the US.

So my point is that facing reality is always an advantage. So you can't blame Trump for quite a few things that happen. I can't believe his politics will stabilize the planet the way he imagines it. I believe that there will be serious weaknesses, both in relations with Russia and China, due to the fact that we should besides look at the planet through the eyes of individual like president Putin. He's looking at Trump, and of course he likes quite a few things. He likes that he's attacking Europe. He likes it that he fundamentally demeans the president of Ukraine.

But on the another hand, president Putin is not enthusiastic about chaotic changes?

Looking at Trump, I wonder how long this policy will last. That is why I think that the president of the United States is somewhat naive, believing that Russia will change its attitude towards China and will start working more actively with the United States, due to the fact that for Russian president Trump is only a temporary figure, while he will stay in office for a long time, as will the Communist organization of China.

In my opinion, 1 of the things that is very crucial to Europeans is to realise that the biggest change Trump has made is that everything is happening very quickly. He changed his pace. He moved the planet from average train to French TGV, where the velocity is fundamentally completely different.

How should Poland behave in these chaotic times?

Poland is an crucial country and has a very crucial geostrategic location. Poland should realize that relations with the United States will most likely never be the same as before. However, this does not mean that Poland can start playing on its own or that Europe can start playing on its own over time.

Europe now has 10 years to effort to accomplish much more autonomy in safety and the economy, but this is besides a period where we should have much more working and balanced relations with the United States. From this point of view, in my opinion, for Europe, but besides for Poland, it is most crucial not to panic, but besides not to make large gestures.

PAP/Jakub Kaczmarczyk

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