Our media is talking about alleged breach of the Russian main defence line under Robotino in the Oriechowo-Tokmak area. The “analysts” who sow prokija propaganda, even talk about the long-awaited turning point in the large spring-summer Ukrainian counteroffensive.
After careful analysis, made coolly, according to the rules of war art, the motion is one. There's no turning point. Why?
About 2 weeks ago, the Armed Forces of Ukraine reached the front line of the Russian defence east of Robotino and since then this large Ukrainian group has been trying to do 2 things:
– extend the bridgehead and
– defeat this front line.
From the attached map you can see why you can't throw all your energy forward. It creates a deep “kit” delicate to flank attacks and laps.
Even the current penetration of the Russian front, from this point of view is already a dangerous configuration. The Russian deductions that the Rate directed can “close” the silage by hitting the flanks at its seat. That's why Ukrainians are so desperate to storm Robotino. However, it is not much to gain this village without capturing the surrounding hills, and these so far hold the Russian infantry regiments, parachutists and marines from the 810 defender Marine Brigade. Obtaining these hills will only let Ukrainians to grow the front to the left, eliminating the flank threat from this side. So far, 99% of the village has been captured, but there are Russians in the hills.
At the same time, the Armed Forces of Ukraine, incapable to accomplish success under Robotino, began to approach the main line of Russian defence to the right, towards the village of Werboje. Apparently, General Deservator's plan is to force Russian troops north of Verbowoje to retreat, as a maneuver forced to not be cut off.
The goal is the same: to grow and grow the bridgehead (break) and destruct the flank threat.
Only then is it possible to throw all the forces, and these collected the Deserved a lot, down, south to overcome the line of hills along which the first main line of Russian defence runs. However, there are a fewer problems here. Firstly, the attack will proceed on a comparatively narrow section of the front, plus on the lowlands between the 2 dominant elevations, which exposes the attacking Ukrainian units to flank attacks which extend as the attackers advance. This could be full observed in the west, in the vicinity of Staromajorski and Urożajny, where in the same way the Armed Forces of Ukraine went where it was possible (along the lowlands), yet stuck and even withdrew as a consequence of the fiery influence of Russian forces.
Secondly, attempts to attack from a tiny cape close Oreichowo , in 3 directions (forward and sideways) require 3 times more forces and resources to be delivered to the front line under fire through fields and the only agrarian road. On this issue, judging by regular published shots of damaged equipment, problems arise in Ukrainians.
But the most crucial thing is slow pace. The concept of "crossing the front" is appropriate erstwhile the time account reaches hours, at most days. Then the enemy has no time to react, and you can decision on, breaking the defence and entering the operating space. It's like a pool where a skilled player, without missing, can finish the game in a fewer minutes, not even giving the opponent a chance to retaliate. It's not like that here.
The conflict of Robotino has been going on for almost 3 months, and since last period on the confederate front – almost exclusively under Robotino. At that time, Russian defenders could not only slow accumulate reserves, but also, if needed, strengthen defensive lines, build new, lay fresh minefields and equip shooting positions.
In a sense, Ukraine's Armed Forces are now in a worse position than 3 months ago: at the time they enjoyed the advantage of choosing the direction of impact, but now the end, with the “kolein” under Robotino there is no escape, and it is very likely that Ukrainians will proceed to approach there.
In order to succeed, the Armed Forces of Ukraine must multiply the forces of an attacking group. It is doubtful that the Ukrainian General Staff could not have done so before. Following the introduction of the 9th Corps, units of the 10th Corps entered the fight, yet the forces of the strategical Reserve headed by 82nd Bygad Desantowo Stormowa.
Can Ukrainians do it now, without weakening another sections of the front? There are 1 and 17 armored brigades somewhere. However, at the same time it appeared in the north front at Swatowo and Kupinsk, the Russian 1st Armoured defender Army, in case of success, the Russians will come out to the Ukrainian rear under Slavic and Kramatorsk. Who will halt them then?
Without multiple reinforcements of forces attacking in the breach at Robotino, even a local Ukrainian success that any analysts perceive under Wierbowoje will not lead to anything. I remind you that the intent of the Ukrainian offensive operation is not the village of Robotino, it is not the village of Werbowoje, or even defeating the first line of Russian defence, or capturing the town of Tokmak. The goal of General Deservator is to scope the Azov Sea, and it is as far distant as 3 months ago.
Ukraine's armed forces at the beginning of June had a chance to make a strong leap forward, but they did not realize it. Now you can't go unpunished into Russian operating space in Zaporozh. As it progresses, it will be filled with fresh defensive lines and fortified areas, fresh fortified areas that are impenetrable. The stakes were directed in the above-mentioned area of the fighting reconnaissance. General Romanczuk and his “East” group received 2 squadrons of paratroopers (7 and 76) and 3 regiments of mechanized gunmen.
Finally, what revealed the attack, the Ukrainians' advantage in the drones of the Russians reduced the effective action of many WRE forces and their own forces equipped with drones. The advantage in the artillery is compensated by Russian bombers equipped with glide bombs supplied by the industry. Visions of cavalry rallying of armored columns, not operating under the umbrella of their own OPL forces, effectively dispel the murderously effective Ka-52 "Alligator" helicopters, stopping armored vehicles, even those state-of-the-art ones supplied by NATO countries, with "Wichr" missiles.
And by the time of autumn, rain and cold, and the legendary muddy "razputica", which in 1941 stopped the Nazi hordes burning on Moscow, is little and less. Arrows can be painted on drawings and on Fb get excited, and the reality of the Ukrainian attack "screams".
KP
