The presidential election in America electrifies the western planet since it is considered the leader of the West, that is, since the end of planet War I. Since the end of planet War II, the results of the presidential elections have been viewed by the full world. Since the United States has had the position of planet superpower and hegemon, Washington is watching the full world, all corner of it. This interest so enjoys reciprocity. It is no wonder that our Poles, the most pro-American society in the European Union, and possibly throughout Europe, the political situation behind the large Water is not at all indifferent.
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The level of emotion does not necessarily translate into quality. The interest in elections in Poland, the alleged public debate, is more like a stream of media opinions than a calm reservoir of transparent analyses. The debate or discussion, as the definition says, is about "changing" views, "supported by arguments", i.e. facts embedded in sources. In the source, not in emotion. In order to encourage a meaningful assessment of the election situation in the United States, then, we must make certain that we have left the permanently inflated information bubbles.
I'm seeing 2 lost opinions about the election result. 1 says that Donald Trump, a Republican organization candidate, has actually already won the presidential election. It gained the character of a dogma somewhere around the presidential debate between Joe Biden and the mentioned Trump. Biden resigned and this Trump became the oldest candidate in American politics past for the most crucial office in the state. So recently, I'm going to get an opinion from an other apex, which has formed Trump's faults band, crowned with his performance in the presidential debate with Kamala Harris, who is presently leading ‘presidential ticket’ (the presidential ticket) on the Democratic side. Says the explanation that Harris is gonna win. ‘by a landscape’ – from the strength of the falling landslide, or with a crushing advantage.
Battle of Michigan and Wisconsin
The politician strategy is calculated to win key states Rusty Belt (‘Red Belt’), primarily Michigan and Pennsylvania. He has to put it up north. "The Blue Wall" ("blue wall"). Pennsylvania even wears the appropriate nickname – the Keystone State, referring to ‘key’ meaning in the past of America. Both states belong to the category Swing States, states of ‘shaking’, having a crucial number of electorate votes. In 2024 in Pennsylvania there are 19 of them, in Michigan 15, which gives a full not tiny sum, and the full sum needed to win – let us remind – is simply a minimum of 270 electorative votes.
The presidential election will settle in just 7 ‘Top Battleground States ‘the main conflict states’, that is, ‘waking’. Like a mantra, they repeat this opinion, all information segments, from right to left, possibly due to the fact that the passage of time made it get a structure of almost iron fact. With respect to the rust belt, Wisconsin is besides among them. Even the 10 electorate votes there can have a profound impact on the result of the November elections. Ohio, located on a “belt” somewhere between Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, in which there are as many as 17 electorate votes, will besides be outside the scope of the Democrats.
It is worth noting that in all the states mentioned above there is simply a immense Polish diaspora, of which the Democratic staff is best aware in these elections. This Polonia, or, in fact, the Americans of Polish origin, having a Polish grandpa or Polish great-grandmother in their family, is simply a model electorate of "waking". It represents voters of indecisive or average Democrats and Republicans. Kamala Harris, carefully preparing for the first and most likely last debate with Donald Trump, just voters from the group Polish American In Pennsylvania, she decided to remind how dangerous the abroad policy of her opponent might be for the region of Central and east Europe. Local stations in Pennsylvania, local net users: portals and social media, flooded a stream of electoral advertisements resembling the anti-communist heritage of Poles, American Polonia, Ronald Reagan and John Kennedy, in the face of the Russian attack on Ukraine, and the resulting threats to Central Europe.
Efforts of the Democratic staff, which include strong local run Grassroots and the permanent presence of Kamala Harris and Vice president candidate Tim Waltz, “in the field”: at rallies, meetings with trade unionists or volunteers, bear fruit. The average 11 polls for Pennsylvania give Harris a small, within the limits of statistical error, but nevertheless an advantage of about 1.5% (48.7% to 47.1%). In Michigan and Wisconsin Harris in the average right-wing media aggregate Real Clear Politics, averaging survey (RCP AverageHarris has a 1.8% and 1% advantage over Trump, respectively. The emergence in support of the Democrats has greatly upset the rivals. In Michigan, J. D. Vance, a Republican candidate for vice president, is stationed in Wisconsin by Trump himself.
Demographic change in the south
Historical Sun Belt The state of the U.S. South has been the bastion of the Republican organization for respective decades. There are, however, 4 another conflict states in it: Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia. 4 years ago, 2 of them, Arizona and Georgia, captured Joe Biden in a spectacular way. Without diminishing Biden's popularity among average voters and black voters, this is mainly due to demographic changes in confederate states. These are caused by migration. Not this illegal, increasing due, among others, to Trump's “co-winner” of his last election defeat (besides all those standing behind the “twisted elections”). interior migration.
Well, the suburbs of large cities swell up. There is simply a circumstantial desurbanisation of agglomeration centers, but more displacement waves are first flowing in the inhabitants of large cities of northern states, the southeast coast of America. A separate stream of population flows from the province. erstwhile the suburbs associated with factories, warehouses and office buildings become a mediate class bastion. They become increasingly associated with tiny businesses and housing estates, frequently closed. Between 2020 and 2020, according to census studies, the population of the suburbs grew by about 10.5%.
Interestingly, according to the RCP Average Harris has a slight advantage in Nevada's "red" – 47.2% to 46.8%. In contrast, in Georgia and Arizona Trump leads, according to the same data, 2.4% and 1.7% respectively. powerfully depressing for Harris' staff news brought a fresh poll New York Times/Siena. However, we must make it clear that all the above advantages, both Harris and Trump, are within the limits of statistical error. So to put it plainly – based on polling data, even focused on key states, we know that we know nothing.
The function and place of the Collective safety Agreement Organisation in the abroad policy of the Russian Federation
Who has the initiative?
Last week American media were live commenting on the latest, very optimistic for the tandem Kamala Harris – Tim Walz, a NBC poll saying Harris nationwide leads 49% to 44%. More importantly for Harris, the vice president importantly improved her score in the ranking of public acceptance. This consequence improved by as much as 21%, with 50% negative ratings and 32% affirmative in mid-July to 48% affirmative and 45% negative in mid-August. A peculiar leap of affirmative ratings occurred among black and Latin voters. Trump, meanwhile, consistently increases its negative electorate without gaining acceptance votes.
However, any national and alleged social trust polls miss the American elections with a goal. They can aid us to answer the question which candidate is on the rising wave has its possible ‘momentum’. Although it was accepted that the last "independent" voters were making their decisions after the July and August electoral conventions, inactive a fewer percent of the "independent" voters remained undecided.
Public opinion investigation centres have a constant problem with assessing who de facto is Likely Voter "(probable voter)" and whether it is already a voter yet "decided". Experts besides wonder whether the "probable voters" or "registered" voters are more important, and whether they are the same. There are polls that effort to measurement support among Likely Voters – before the elections themselves should only be like this – and these give a slight 2-percent advantage to Harris over Trump.
But if those voters are scattered, that's precisely what no 1 knows.
Women and men
So we're back to the beginning of the loop. I think that many of the real opportunities of candidates will say the most about support, constant, increasing or decreasing, among respective social groups. And I'm talking about the biggest social groups. Counting social groups by origin, profession, cultural groups, urban and provincial residents, etc. does not make much sense in trying to delete the overall but conservative forecast. We know more or little who the cops, farmers, officials, etc. vote for, and actually, detailed cognition won't tell us anything in particular.
We are curious in women and men and the mediate class, or residents of the suburbs. You don't request to get besides detailed to announcement that the voter advantage Harris over Trump is building the voices of American women. Yes, Harris leads importantly on the side of the female barricade, but Trump definitely wins among the men. September poll USA TODAY/Suffolk University He clearly portrayed these advantages. Among women, in the 18-34 age group, Harris enjoys as much as 63% of support, Trump supports 27%, while rail among men from the same bracket, Trump leads 45% to 37%. For example, in Pennsylvania, in a group of "probable voters", Harris has a 17-point lead over Trump among women, Trump a 12-point lead over Harris among men.
Women are naturally somewhat more in American society, but it is simply a question of mobilising both groups on election day that is actually important. And women are more likely to go to the urns now. Both electoral stations effort to reduce this Gender Gap ‘sex gap’). Sam Elliott, an actor known for many cult westerns in a Harris-promoting spot, urges: “It’s time tobe a man and vote for a woman’While Donald Trump personally convinces a female from the talker that she will be theirs ‘protector’...
In 2016, the "sex gap" looked more or little akin to the current one: Hillary Clinton won women's votes by 15 percent points (54% to 39%) but lost men's votes 11 (54% to 41%). While Trump reduced this last advantage to 11% in 2020, the men's voices spread almost equally – 50% to 48% for Trump.
Harris seems to have a better chance of narrowing the distance to his opponent due to the fact that he appears to be on a rising wave. survey The Bloomberg News/Morning Consult shows its lead in all the "battle states" – in Nevada even 7 percent points – and a tie in Georgia, as well as a growing, already 3-percent advantage among the "probable voters". 47% of them think – whether or not they support it – that she will win the election. 40% think Trump's gonna win.
To complete the election background, American bookmakers and online data aggregates, specified as polls, economics and demographics, even if famous, feel the same way. fivethirtyeight.com. Even celebrated for prognostic science, they offer a far better chance of winning Kamala Harris. The prof. presented his four-year forecast American University Allan Lichtman, nicknamed “The Prophet of Presidential Elections”.
The model of Lichtman, which the historian created together with Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981, is based on 13 "keys"; more specifically, thirteen problems relating to the global and internal, social and political situation, defining the background on which the candidates compete. These are, for example, the state of the economy, the possible global crisis absorbing the United States, or the degree of consolidation of both political camps around 1 denomination. Keys that amazingly accurately foretell election results since 1984, Lichtman published 10 years later in the book The 13 Keys to the White House. Several weeks ago, he announced his kind for the A. D. 2024 election – Kamala Harris will win.
Nebraska and its ‘blue dot district’
The election consequence will remain, by at least 5 November, a mystery. Then they will talk first. Exit PolleAnd the results of the states will show us the general trend. At the moment, both staffs are seriously considering a script in which virtually 1 electorate vote will settle the presidential rivalry. There is even a voice fighting in conservative Nebraska, in which, what is worth emphasis, there is simply a large, though already "old" Polonia. Maine, where the Democrats and Nebraska dominate, are the only states in which you can win in the second territory to win an electorate vote. Omaha, due to the fact that the center of the largest metropolis of the state is about, pregnant, like any large city, naturally towards democrats. Trump's supporters even fought an unsuccessful conflict to change the law and to establish a regulation "the winner [in a state] takes everything".
Why is it that 1 electorate voice that even quarreled Republicans in Omaha due to the fact that they were the ones who yet blocked the "reform"? If we postpone the results of the survey mentioned above NYTimes, giving the lead to Harris in Nebraska's second district, we have the following electorate score in the presidential election – Kamala Harris 270, Donald Trump 268. Trump, in order to overcome the 270-vote barrier, would gotta win in all states of the confederate "shaking": Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina, an elector in Maine's second district, which he won by his way in 2020, and Harris Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and that electorate voice in Nebraska.
And speaking of North Carolina, Republicans face it with the ghost of a catastrophic defeat in the governor's race. Trump-backed black deputy politician Mark Robinson posted on 1 of the websites “for adults” statements, somewhat controversial, as described in liberal media as “racist”. Currently, according to the poll CNN/SSRS, his rival, politician Josh Stein leads with Robinson with a score of 53% to 36%. Robinson's situation affects Trump's situation in the state, and this erstwhile president must win to keep the shortest and least complicated paths to electorate victory.
Election
Presidential elections, of course, affect the election consequence for Congress. It's not a discovery. Besides, the main reason for giving up the fight for Joe Biden's re-election was force from congressional and organization leaders. As he himself admitted, they convinced him that only the exchange of a candidate can save the Democratic chances of a majority in the legislature or the home of Representatives. And indeed, the campaigns of democrats fighting for a parliamentary mandate have taken on the wind. At the moment, polling aggregates are talking about a tie in the election that lists the full home of Representatives, and announces the Senate's capture by Republicans, albeit by a majority of 1 or 2 senators.
I wouldn't say this year's presidential election is more breathtaking than 4 or 8 years ago. I think each time the level of emotion reaches the same zenith. They'll undoubtedly be groundbreaking. due to the fact that that will be the choice of the first female to be president of the United States, which in itself does not constitute any more, in a intellectual sense, news, or re-election for this office of Donald Trump, the man he met twice, although he did not overthrow the "impeachement" and which possibly initiated – due to the fact that the investigation in advancement – the first in American history, though unsuccessful, coup.
The article was originally published in the quarterly “Think Sovereign. Review of Public Affairs’ No 1(11)/2023.
photo. pexels.com
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