Donald Tusk and Ursula von der Leyen // Lukas Kobus / European Union, 2023 / EC – Audiovisual Service/wikimedia commonsIn Poland, the first complete failure of the Law and Justice since 2014, amazingly advanced support for the Confederacy, attendance lower than 5 years ago and mediocre results of the 3rd Way and Left. In Europe, the triumph of the Group of the European People's Party, the crucial decline in liberals and greens, and the emergence of the far right. Presumable re-election of Ursula von der Leyen – a departure from strong green climate policy and a more conservative migration policy. This is all due to the fresh elections to the European Parliament.
The European Parliament elections were held between 6 and 9 June. Poland was the 5th in number of seats in the European Parliament, with 53 deputies. The support for the parties, which were over 5% of the electoral threshold in Poland, was as follows: 37.1% for the Civic Coalition (21 seats), Law and Justice – 36.1% (20 seats), Confederation – 12.1% (6 seats), 6.9% for the 3rd Way (3 seats) and 6.3% for the Left (3 seats). Turnout was 40.65%. This was the first triumph of the civilian Coalition in the election in 10 years, as well as a large success for the Confederacy, which managed to take a place on the podium, although in erstwhile Euro-elections it did not even exceed the electoral threshold. For Law and Justice, this consequence means the failure of six mandates, and for the 3rd Way and the Left, it is undoubtedly unsatisfactory. That's how the leaders of these parties commented on him at post-election rallies – We will have quite a few work and we will do it well – Simon Hołownia, – The consequence we take very seriously and with humility. We know what we gotta do and we know that work costs – Kosiniak-Kamish added and – the consequence could be better, there could be more to be done – concluded Robert Biedron. The only thing to do now is to wait for the conclusions of these elections to be drawn by you by the president and whether there will be any changes in the ruling coalition before the upcoming presidential elections.
A Pulsistic Tsunami
As far as pan-European results are concerned, it can no uncertainty be said that the right has won the biggest victory. Based on the structure of the outgoing parliament, the most, due to the fact that 186 mandates, will be awarded to the centre-right Chadetic Group of the European People's organization (EPP), which includes, among others, the Civic Coalition (Poland), the People's organization (Spain) or the Christian-Democratic Union (Germany). Second place came to the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats in the European Parliament (S&D) - 135 mandates, and 3rd Renew Europe (liberal pro-European group) - 79 seats, or about 20 seats little than in the erstwhile term. Predictions have failed, saying that the utmost right will take 3rd place in the European Parliament, but it has undoubtedly achieved a very good result. 73 mandates (e.g. Law and Justice, Italian Brothers, Vox), and the Identity and Democracy Group (ID) 58 mandates (e.g. National Unification, alternate to Germany, Freedom organization of Austria). The crucial question is whether these parties decide to cooperate. Although together they will not accomplish the alleged blocking majority, there is simply a anticipation that utmost right-wing groups will be even more reinforced. The fresh European Parliament included 55 fresh MEPs who had not previously belonged to any of the political groups of the outgoing parliament (including 6 Confederate Members) and 45 non-attached Members (including 11 Hungarian Fidesz-KDNP MPs). possibly they will decide to join or informally support 1 of the factions.
With the end of the word of office of the European Parliament, the word of office of president of the European Commission Ursuli von der Leyen, who is seeking re-election, besides ends. This 1 is very likely right now. This is indicated on the 1 hand by the triumph of the EPP and on the another hand by the success in Germany CDU/CSU (first place, with a consequence of about 30% of the vote), from which von der Leyen derives. Both of these factors strengthen her position before choosing the Head of the EC for that term. In order to be able to hold this office again, von der Leyen must first be nominated as a candidate by the Heads of State and then submit to a vote in the EP, in which he must win min. 361 out of 720 votes. In order to get the right number of votes, it is likely that an agreement will be reached between the EPP, S&D and Renew Europe. In specified a situation, it is likely that the EPP will be the strongest in this alliance to have the position of president of the European Commission. The Socialists will become liable for directing the European Council and the Liberals will be given the position of advanced typical of the Union for abroad Affairs and safety Policy. As Ursula von der Leyen said – together we will build a bastion against left and right extremists, we will halt them. However, there are voices that, in order to safe any support (the council of these 3 parties gives a adequate number of votes, but it is not known whether individual individuals will break out) von der Leyen will effort to search support from the Greens (who lost quite a few seats as a consequence of this year's elections but inactive have 53) or from the national-conservative group of Girorgia Meloni, who won 24 seats.
Marianna CZMOCHOWSKA
