The situation on the Polish political phase remains highly tense, and the latest survey of organization preferences, conducted by the renowned IPSOS institute, adds fuel to the fire. According to the study, the Law and Justice keep a leadership position, but the consequence obtained would not let the organization to form itself a government. This is simply a script that resembles the situation after the parliamentary elections in 2023 and clearly shows that the key to power in Poland is no longer triumph itself, but the ability to build lasting alliances. The results of the poll show a clear shuffle and increasing power of smaller groups, which could bring about an even more complex political puzzle in the position of the 2027 elections. organization analysts and strategists have a hard nut to crack, and for voters it is simply a signal that the final form of the future government will settle in behind-the-clock negotiations.
Who has the best chance of power? We know the results of the IPSOS poll
The latest survey of organization preferences was carried out by the Ipsos investigation Institute commissioned by TVP Info on 24-25 July 2024. The survey was conducted on a typical example of 1000 adults in Poland, which guarantees a advanced level of reliability. To guarantee that social sentiments are reflected as closely as possible, the method has been utilized mixed-mode, combining computer-aided telephone interviews (CATI) and net surveys (CAWI), in a proportion of 50/50.
If parliamentary elections were held today, the results would be as follows: Law and Justice with 28% support. This gives Jarosław Kaczyński's organization the first place, but with an advantage of only 4 percent points over the main rival. Just behind the PiS, she's in. Citizens' Coalition to vote 24% polled. The fight for the 3rd place, which with clear, 14 percent support, is highly interesting.
According to the poll, the electoral threshold would besides exceed another groups, which makes the political scene even more fragmented. The Sejm would include:
- Left - 6% of support
- Party Together – 6% of support
- Poland 2050 – 5% of support
- Confederation of the Polish Crown – 5% of support
Below the electoral threshold, with a consequence of only 4%, would be the Polish People's Party. It is besides worth noting that until 7% of respondents inactive do not know who they would vote for, which makes this group crucial for the final result of possible elections. The remaining 1% of respondents pointed to another smaller groups.
A triumph that does not give power. Comparison with elections in 2023
The results of the latest IPSOS poll represent an almost mirrored reflection of the situation that occurred after the parliamentary elections on October 15, 2023. At that time, the Law and Justice besides won a formal victory, winning 35.38% of the vote. However, this result, although the best in the country, proved insufficient to get the majority of parliament and self-create the government. It's a bitter lesson for the PiS that seems to repeat – being a poll leader does not warrant real power.
By comparison, in 2023, the Civic Coalition obtained 30.70% of the vote, the 3rd Road (the PSL and Poland 2050 coalition) – 14.40%, the fresh Left – 8.61%, and the Confederation – 7.16%. Although PiS won, it was the alliance of KO, 3rd Way and Left that managed to collect most of the tickets. After a failed effort by Mateusz Morawiecki to form a government that did not receive a vote of confidence, Donald Tusk took over the mission. His office was supported by most of the parliament, which clearly showed that Polish policy has become a key coalition capacity.
The current poll shows that this rule remains in force. The Law and Justice, with a score of 28%, and the Confederate with 14%, even in the alliance would not have a majority guarantee. On the another hand, the sum of the results of the parties forming the current governing coalition (KO, Left, Poland 2050, excluding PSL, which is under the threshold) besides does not give a certain advantage. It's a signal that the political scene is in a state of unstable balance, and all percent point matters.
Key to power in Poland. Why isn't percentages enough?
In order to full realize why being the leader of the polls does not automatically translate into governance, we should look at Polish electoral ordination. In the elections to the Sejm, there is simply a proportional strategy in which mandates are allocated among the election committees in proportion to the number of votes received. However, they play a key function electoral thresholds. For a single political party, this threshold is 5% per country, while for coalition committees it is much higher and 8%.
This strategy promotes groups with unchangeable nationwide support and hinders the entry of tiny niche parties into parliament. At the same time, as fresh elections have shown, it leads to a situation where no group is able to gain an absolute majority, or at least 231 seats in the 460-member Sejm. In this script It is essential to make government coalitions, and not only the percentages find success, but besides the political arithmetic and the ability to negotiate.
The latest IPSOS poll perfectly illustrates this mechanism. Law and Justice, despite their conduct, has very limited coalition potential. The only natural partner seems to be the Confederation, but their combined forces may not be enough. In turn, parties of the current government coalition, though individually weaker than the Law and Justice, inactive have a chance to keep power if they can reunite and convince undecided voters. It's a advanced stakes game where all ticket counts.
What next on the Polish political scene? These scripts are on the table.
Although there is inactive quite a few time left for the constitutional word of parliamentary elections in the autumn of 2027, the latest poll sets trends that will dominate Polish politics in the coming months. First of all, The Confederacy's position as a 3rd political force is established. With the consequence of 14%, this group becomes a possible "kingmaker", a organization that may depend on the creation of a future government. Both the Law and the current coalition will gotta make a strategy towards the increasing power of the right.
Secondly, there is simply a fragmentation on the liberal-left side. A separate start of the organization Together and Poland 2050, which balance at the border of the electoral threshold, poses a hazard of “lost” votes if 1 of these groups fails to cross it. This puts questionable the future of the format in which the current coalition could go to the next election. At the same time, the PSL was placed under the threshold, which is an alarming signal for the people and the full 3rd Way.
Finally, the key group remains 7% of undecided voters. Their voices will be the hardest fight. Their final decision may tip the scales of triumph to 1 of the parties. The IPSOS survey is so a valuable clue, but it is not an oracle. However, it clearly shows that the era of single-party governments in Poland could have ended for good, and the future belongs to those who can effectively build alliances and talk to political partners.
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The latest organization poll is already known. The PiS wins, but it's not adequate to rule
