Cooperation: Małgorzata Czarnik, Paweł Gawryluk
Analysis in Brief
– On the eve of the presidential election Kamala Harris and Donald Trump concentrated on their final narrative. closing argument) which contains key demands to mobilise electoral bases, which is more crucial at this phase than trying to convince the undecided
– Harris' communicative has become sharper and more expressive, and its central component is simply a informing against Trump's return to power
– in the center of Trump's communicative there is simply a call for change and return to declared Prosperity from 2017 to 2021 after 4 years of unpopular Joe Biden's rule; the tightening of Trump's rival rhetoric corresponds to even more severe attacks at Harris
– polls inactive do not indicate a clear favorite, though the increase in support for Trump in key states appears to have stopped, and the last 2 weeks have brought many studies beneficial to Harris
– in the elections to Congress, Republicans are favourites to gain a tiny majority in the Senate, while Democratic candidates have the advantage in the home of Representatives
Harris: Call to close the chapter
In the last 2 weeks of the election run Kamala Harris has sharpened rhetoric towards her Republican rival. Her main message on the eve of the election is to outline a very clear contrast between Harris and her imagination and Donald Trump and the possible of his presidency and to send a very clear informing to voters about Trump's possible return to power.
Harris calls for the period of about a decade to close, during which Trump mostly defined political division in the United States. He portrays Trump as a threat to democation, an unstable person, an unstable, overpowered desire for rematch, full of regret (for defeat 4 years ago) and of dictatorial tendencies seeking unlimited power.
The most crucial speech in the fresh period of the run was symbolic due to the fact that it was delivered by Harris in Washington, D.C., in precisely the same place where Trump stirred up the crowd on 6 January 2021 to attack Capitol [1]. Harris' goal of sharpening rhetoric is to recover moment lost at the turn of September and October.
At the programme level, Harris recalls in peculiar the following proposals: reducing the cost of surviving (e.g. through a national ban on alleged price gouging), control of insulin prices and another medicines, taxation reductions for working and mediate classes, covering the costs of care for older household members by younger household members, taxation relief for parents, assistance to young families in paying the housing payments, plans to build millions of fresh housing (in cooperation with the private sector and local authorities, inter alia through deregulation) and others. Concerning immigration, the Democratic candidate declares, among another things, to re-propose the Trump bill rejected by legislature in February amending immigration law and providing for additional measures to defend the Mexican border [2]. A peculiar place on the Harris agenda is to defend the right to abortion, which the Democratic candidate sacrificed to rally in Texas. This situation is of symbolic importance in the area of women's rights due to the crucial simplification of women's rights in fresh years [3]. Comparably quite a few space as Harris's program proposals devotes criticism to the main demands of his rival.
Trump: Call to greatness
In Donald Trump's final narrative, the primal place takes the question to voters whether they are presently in a better position than 4 years ago. The Republican candidate calls for the magnitude, restoration of the "American dream" and fast resolution of the major problems affecting the US, e.g. advanced cost of living, illegal immigration or crime in large cities. The period of government of Joe Biden and Kamali Harris recognizes as a series of failures caused by incompetence.
In his vision, the narrowly understood interest of the United States should be placed first (‘America First’) [4The tools include economical protectionism, reindustrialisation of the country, limiting the engagement in global affairs (isolationism), nationalism in approaches to immigration and instrumental cultural conservatism.
On the increasingly harsh rhetoric from Kamala, Harris responds to even sharper attacks utilizing offensive language (calls Harris a low-IQ person, “stupid as a shoe”, accuses her of notorious lying [5], as well as suggesting shooting Liz Cheney, a Republican who supported Harris in the campaign) [6It is likely to lead to deliberate misinformation (e.g. groundless allegations of mass election fraud in Pennsylvania) [7].
At the Trump programme level, among others, Trump declares: abolition of inflation, a large taxation simplification for tiny entrepreneurs and the working class, elimination of the taxation on tipping, overtime and social benefits for pensioners, taxation relief for family-careers (a proposal for women), taxation write-off for instalments per car (but only those that were produced in the US) mass deportation of illegal immigrants, closure of the border with Mexico and construction of a border wall or extremist increase in hydrocarbon extraction [8♪[9]. He besides considers eliminating national income tax, and losing his income to the national budget would like to offset the income from import duties [10]. The affirmative imagination drawn by Trump at the most crucial phase of the rally run in fresh York City is being overshadowed by the negative rhetoric of him and the people around him and the environment [11].
White home and Congress: State game
Based on public opinion polls, it is inactive impossible to identify a clear favourite of the presidential race. Between July and late September, the polls saw a sharp increase in support for Kamala Harris, then for about three-four weeks indicated the recovery of losses by Donald Trump, and in the last 2 weeks they have more favoured the Democratic candidate. While the key nonsubjective of the run is to attract average (or indecisive) voters, the mobilisation of electoral bases and attendance are even more crucial at the final stage. It is possible that 1 of the candidates is underestimated in the polls: if in 2016 and – clearly little in 2020 – the polls underestimated Trump's score, so much in the election midterms In 2022, support for Republicans was overrated, which may mean that this year's support for Harris is understated [12♪[13♪[14♪[15].
Given the anticipation of early voting (Early voting) so far over 75 million voters have already voted in the United States [16and a clear advantage among voters is the female electorate [17Which is most likely a good forecast for Harris. On the another hand, Trump and Republicans call for early vote, contrasting with their approach to this procedure in erstwhile years erstwhile they criticized Early voting as susceptible to election manipulation [18]. Republicans evidence a importantly higher number of registrations this year than in erstwhile years to vote among their voters [19].
With respect to the election run to Congress, there have been no crucial changes in the forecasts over the last 3 months. Republicans are likely to defend all their 11 seats in the Senate, which expire this year, and will additionally win 1 mandate in West Virginia and possibly 1 in Montana, now owned by Democrats. If this had happened, the Republican organization would have had a minimum majority in the home of 51 seats (per 100 seats in the Chamber) after the fresh legislature was scheduled to be sworn in on 3 January 2025, taking control of it from the Democrats [20]. On the another hand, in the home of Representatives, the majority can take over from 2025 the Democrats who have the advantage in the polls, but due to the large number of seats in the fluctuating districts, it is much harder to foretell the possible scale of the win and the possible size of the fresh majority in the lower chamber [21].
Bibliography:
[1] Remarks by Vice president Harris at a run Event, The White House, 29.10.2024, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2024/10/29/remarks-by-vice-president-harris-at-a-campaign-event-10/.
[2] Ibid.
[3] Eugene Daniels, Harris unleashes the star power of Beyoncé at raucous Houston rally, Politico, 26.10.2024, https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/26/harris-unleashes-the-star-power-of-beyonnce-at-raucous-houston-rally-00185673.
[4] Donald Trump holds run rally at Madison Square Garden, fresh York City, Sky News, Youtube, accessed: 3.11.2024, https://www.youtube.com/embed/5DdH_9-vIrs.
[5] Aaron Rupar, X, 1.11.2024, https://x.com/atrupar/status/1852208041980043737.
[6] Aaron Rupar, X, 1.11.2024, https://x.com/atrupar/status/1852209432878342308.
[7] Erin Doherty, Trump targets Pennsylvania in push to sow double about selection, Axios, 2.11.2024, https://www.axios.com/2024/11/02/trump-election-fraud-pennsylvania.
[8] Donald Trump holds run rally, op.cit.
[9] Liz Peek, 10 critical priorities for Trump’s first day back in the White House, The Hill, 27.09.2024, https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/4901314-trump-second-term-priorities/.
[10] Tami Luhby, Kate Sullivan, Trump floats ending the national income tax. Here’s what that would mean, CNN, 27.10.2024, https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/26/politics/trump-income-taxes-tariffs/index.html.
[11] Kristen Holmes, Steve Contorno, Trump’s offensive Madison Square Garden rally triggers hears of an overshadowed message and fallout with Puerto Rican voters, CNN, 28.10.2024, https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/28/politics/trump-offensive-rally-overshadowed-message/index.html.
[12] Jakub Graca, Campaign without a favourite 2 weeks before the election, Institute of fresh Europe, 20.10.2024, https://ine.org.pl/campania-without-favorite-on-two-weeks-before-elections/.
[13] Last Polls, FiveThirtyEight, accessed: 3.11.2024, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/.
[14] Tim Ross, Emilio Casalicchio, Politico, 3.11.2024, British ‘mega poll’ learns toward Harris victory, https://www.politico.com/news/2024/11/03/swing-state-mrp-mega-poll-00186941.
[15] New polls reset the presidential race to a dead heat, The Economist, 2.11.2024, https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/prediction-model/president.
[16] Alyssa Fowers, Hannah Recht, Where millions of Americans have cast balls during early voting, The Washington Post, 2.11.2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2024/10/24/early-voting-turnout/.
[17] Megan Messerly, Jessica Piper, Dems see signs for optimum in sex gap in early vote, Politico, 29.10.2024, https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/29/gender-gap-early-voting-00186155.
[18] Nicholas Riccardi, More Republicans are voting early, helping break records. Nearly 19 million balls cast so far, AP News, 22.10.2024, https://apnews.com/article/early-vote-records-trump-harris-1c219d0d27d56996388f2e2be5a58fac.
[19] Harry Enten, X, 30.10.2024, https://x.com/ForecasterEnten/status/18516219583176622558?t=gc0KGSYN7tNy_LKNrSZAPw&s=19.
[20] 2024 CPR legislature Race Ratings, The Cook Political Report, 21.10.2024, https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings.
[21] 2024 CPR home Race Ratings, The Cook Political Report, 1.11.2024, https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings.
