In the series “DOWN VOTES” we present our electoral recommendations for you. By summing up the current household policies and comparing the programmes of candidate political parties, we draw an electoral landscape, as you can see, very diverse. In the departments: demography, integrity and well-being of the family, protection of life, support of material for families, counter-revolution – i.e. how to prevent social experiments on the family, household autonomy – we analyse successively what has already happened and what can happen. What solutions have the electoral staff prepared for Polish families? We start with demography – that is, to make families even. I'm certain all the above areas have an impact on demographics, but here we focus on the most direct factors.
The demographic situation of Poland is inactive fatal. We're dying. With fertility rates below 1.3 we will not keep Poland's potential. We are facing a collapse in the labour market, in social insurance, in services, in defence or in the global arena. We just pay to have more kids. Lancet Magazine Forecasts, in a pessimistic variant predicted 13 million Poles in 2100. Is that the kind of Poland we want?
We are not talking about the demographic crisis anymore, but simply about the demographic disaster in our country. There were 38 million of us, but it's already 37 million. Many publicists emphasize that the demographic situation is the most serious problem in our country – with the most full and far-reaching effects. In precisely specified words "Demography is the most serious challenge facing Poland" warned the public Republic of Poland in October 2018 “ To proceed to develop, our country must focus on a wise migration policy, ” she said. But besides make the conditions for Poles to be more willing to have a second and 3rd children." In the background, a photograph of prominent Nobel laureates of the panel will look like Poland in 30 years – from ZUS, PAN, Ministry of Family, KGHM or the Association of Entrepreneurs and Employers. There have been proposals for solutions to the labour marketplace crisis: fresh technologies, better work balance, unused reserves of agrarian and older people, and "smart migration policy". It is actually besides late to fill the demographic hole, due to the fact that it is essential to "sow" at least 25 years in advance. Critics point out that the 500+ programme did not work, the government responds that pro-family policy is measured in decades alternatively than years.
What's changed since then, since 2018? What did this and erstwhile governments do to improve the disastrous demographic situation? Below we present our list of challenges, achievements and neglects.
A fewer statistic that illustrate why things are so bad
"In order to guarantee a unchangeable demographic improvement of the country, in a given year, for all 100 women aged 15 to 49, there should be an average of 210 to 215 born children, now there are about 126. This is mainly due to the postponement by young people of the decision to start a household (the process was started in the 1990s) and then to the possession of less children or even of a single life" – reads GUS study "Poland's demographic situation until 2022", (p.10). After a slight swing on the plus, the fertility rate drops again. In 2022, 305,000 children were born “Jest is the lowest birth rate recorded throughout the post-war period’. The fertility rate was 1,342 in the village and 1,208 in the cities. The average age of birth of the first kid was 29 in 2022. To evidence the natural substitutability of generations, this origin should be at least 2.1. The situation only somewhat improves the fact that "The number of births by mothers without Polish citizenship permanently surviving in Poland has increased nearly 10 times“ They are mostly Ukrainians who in 2022 bore 13,738 children of 16,711 children born by foreigners.
Figure 2.4. Women of childbearing possible and their fertility (TFR), GUS,2023 "Poland's demographic situation until 2022", p.12CHALLENGE:
Stopping a demographic disaster that can affect all areas of public life: from labour marketplace shortages, public service vacancyes, social safety collapse, failure of defence capacity and global position.
PROVISIONAL POLICY ACHIEVES:
1.Government Plenipotentiary for Demographic Policy
In December 2019, the position of Government Plenipotentiary for Demographic Policy was established, in the rank of Undersecretary of State in the Ministry of household and Social Policy, which corresponds to "for the preparation and implementation of the Demographic strategy and the promotion and dissemination of family-friendly culture” — as we read on page Ministry of the household of Labour and Social Policy. Barbara Socha, wife, parent of 3 sons and 2 daughters, presently serves as such. The appointment of the Plenipotentiary will surely aid in the integrity of prodemographic policy.
2.Strategic investigation and demographic conferences
It is crucial to approach the demographic problem with your head. This is where the investigation is needed.
GUS reports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The opinions and pro-family attitudes of Poles must be sampled. On Government Plenipotentiary for Demographic Policy website However, there is simply a full series of studies and analyses: “Determinants of decline in fertility in Poland – a synthesis attempt”, “Civilization, Population and Ageing of Populations”, “PRUS Family. The situation of Polish families and evaluation of household policy” and others. Prodemographic conferences, e.g. on 19-20-2022: "Detective conditions" as part of the 3rd Demographic legislature 2021–2022 "Poland 21st century – demographic challenges". Good thing a government study came out: Ministry of household and Social Policy (March 2021). investigation on conditions for improving the demographic condition of Poland with recommendations of changes in the area of reconciliation of professional and private life”, Warsaw, contractor: ASM – Centre for marketplace investigation and Analysis https://www.gov.pl/web/demography/diagnosis-demographical situation, which we have reported as part of the Affirmation.info portal (article "How many children do Poles want? See data from the government study (affirmation.info)). Will this find a real contribution to fertility rates?
3.Demographic strategy 2040
Poland is just catching up, in fact no coherent prodemographic policy has been conducted. Over the years there has been no specified burning need, and since the early 1990s at least this area has been neglected.
‘StDemographic rategia 2040 is the first comprehensive paper in Poland to face adverse trends in the area of demography. Its strategical nonsubjective is to get out of the trap of low fertility and to get closer to fertility levels that warrant the replacementability of generations. The draft strategy was developed on the basis of a careful analysis of factors that affect fertility in Poland based on data and cognition from over 650 sources from Poland and abroad including technological articles, reports and opinion research. As a result, 10 areas were identified most powerfully affecting the decision to have children. The authors propose 12 directions of intervention under the 3 circumstantial objectives” — we read on the page Proxy. These directions of prodemographic policy are illustrated below.
Elements of the Demographic strategy 2040 with government4.Establishment of the Government Institute of Generation
Continuing the thread, even good, in-depth demographic analyses, unless they are commissioned from Sasa to Las are not adequate either. There is simply a request for continuous monitoring of pro-demographic indicators, reading social sentiments and the implementation of public policies.
Order No 325 of the Prime Minister of 9 December 2021. created Institute of Generation M.P. 2021 item 1164. ‘We prepare research, opinions and expertise on broadly understood household demography in Polish and global terms. We take into account the socio-cultural conditions of the phenomena. We point out the directions of change and initiate actions to lead to affirmative change in society” — we read on the page Institutkolenia.pl. It is here that reports on home budgets, smartphones and the impact of fresh technologies, feelings of loneliness, Czech demographic success, and the situation of women in Poland at the turn of the 20th/XXth century are prepared. For example, the 6QFR model (1st material basis, 2nd health, recreation and sport, 3rd education and education, 4th culture, 5th bond durability, 6th identity was developed. The model to build happy families connected with identity, not only local ones (e.g. appropriate guide for municipal authorities "How the Land of Power Can Increase". possibly the initiative of establishing an Institute of Generation was a reaction to a somewhat earlier legislative initiative passed also in December 2021 The creation of the Polish Institute of household and Demography, which, in addition to conducting investigation on demography and developing appropriate recommendations, had broader competences, which, however, sparked controversy. The task was addressed to work in the Committee on Social Policy and the Family.
6QFR household policy model by Institute of GenerationIn addition to the Institute of Generation besides functions Government Population Council, which has existed since 1997 and which has taken over the functions of the Government People's Commission since 1974.
5.Procreative wellness task in MZ
You may not know this, but in Poland, within the Ministry of wellness operates: Government comprehensive wellness care programme in Poland in 2021-2023 – Ministry of wellness – portal Gov.pl (www.gov.pl). His goal is "to introduce a specialized comprehensive diagnosis of infertility and further treatment in couples applying for the Programme, including providing intellectual care. This intervention involves coordinated diagnostic and therapeutic actions aimed at the wellness and situation of the couple concerned, with the aim of identifying the causes of infertility and the anticipation to implement treatment’ (ibid., p.14). Treatment includes: conservative pharmacological treatment and surgical treatment. Here we will besides find a description of "Creation of Procreative wellness Centres" (p.19). The programme is implemented by mention infertility treatment centres, for the time being 16, whose list is in number from p.34.
6.Ours are returning from abroad. affirmative balance in migration of Poles.
In 2022 the balance of abroad migration amounted to +1.9 1000 people, i.e. more people came to Poland than they left it, 65% of them were Poles returning mainly from Britain and Germany. In 2021, the balance amounted to +3.4 1000 – we read, which is simply a reversal of negative trends that have continued since the 1980s (the study of the Central Statistical Office of Poland). ‘Population. State and structure and natural movement in territorial section in 2022 State on 31 December’, GUS, 2023, p.13 and "Poland's demographic situation until 2022", p.25).
Figure 1. Natural Movement and Migration from 1980 to 1922, GUS, 2023, "Population. State and structure and natural movement in territorial section in 2022. State on 31 December” p.127.Profamily and Procreative wellness Programme “Vectors of Life” for Schools
Life vectors (ore.edu.pl) These are psychoeducational classes for the youth of secondary schools, which were created under the direction of the Ministry of Education and Science, in cooperation with the Centre for Education improvement in Warsaw. It is based on educational games and a rich set of teaching aids, including web applications. The programme will now be implemented. Classes service "shaping wellness and family-friendly attitudes", they propose ‘and why take care of fertility and procreative health‘ or “how to prepare for parenting”. The programme was created as part of the implementation of the Government’s Life Behind Programme, precedence V. coordination, education, guidance and information, task 5.5. Conscious and liable parenting.
8.Help for east Repatriates
The Office of the Government Repatrian Plenipotentiary has yet to be established in 2001, aid strategy «Home“ announced the Government of the Civic Platform in October 2015 (to be implemented from 2016 to 2021). There is presently a wide variety of material aid provided – for a good start, for housing issues and even for professional activation – info Here.).
9.Facilities for multi-child families
A large help, not only of material significance, but besides a breakthrough with the advantages of creating a affirmative image of multi-children families was Big household Card. It allows for discounts on transport, the usage of cultural goods, recreation and various goods and services.
NEEDS AND AFFAIRS:
- PROODZINE CULTURE – inactive besides low awareness of the economic, identity and cultural importance of the family, and the prestige or benefits of parenting.
- LEVEL OF WORK ON PART OF THE ETATUwhich facilitate the reconciliation of work and motherhood, mediocre workbalance.
- NO relation OF DEMOGRAPHY AND individual INTEREST.
- FAMILY INSTITUTIONS AND PROVISIONAL PROGRAMMES IN POLICIES – inactive in trace quantities disproportionate to e.g. equality initiatives and LGBT+.
- PARENTS IN MEDIA – deficiency of cultural patterns with conscious engagement of not only public broadcasters, low supply of programmes or household films; low promotion of multi-children families.
- THE CHALLENGES RELATED TO MIGRANT, including, in particular, uncontrolled, migratory pressure, unwanted migration directions, deficiency of inculturation of immigrants.
- NO POLICIES FOR SINGLE, which would facilitate the establishment of relationships (although postgraduate programmes at universities).
- No Maturity in Young Men and Women to Found a household in General (a culture of consumption stimulated by fresh media and the Internet).
- ANTINATALISM – or hostility towards the birth of children, frequently for supposedly environmental reasons, which requires urgent counter-reaction.
A home in the suburbs, a dog, a good job, a marriage, and then two, a maximum of 3 children – it is not adequate to rise fertility rates in Poland. On the subject of demography, we regularly dedicate our place on our portal Confirmation.info.
Agnieszka Marianowicz-Swiss
