Poland is facing a financial crisis akin to the crisis that shook Greece 15 years ago," writes Klaus Bachmann in the weekend edition of "Berliner Zeitung". In his opinion, both crises have almost identical causes.
According to Bachman, social policy is the main origin of over-indebtedness. The author recalled that the PiS began its regulation in 2015 with a kid allowance of EUR 125 for families with at least 2 children. As he stressed, the benefit was independent of the amount of parental earnings.
Cash alternatively of public services
According to Bachmann, benefits had to be limited to families who truly needed support. "From the point of view of the full society, the decision was fatal – alternatively of providing more and better public benefits, which would let to fill the gap between the mediocre and the rich, the state separated the cash," says Berliner Zeitung.
The author admitted that Poles liked the 500+ decision. "PiS governments liquidated 1 by 1 the public service and distributed cash in return. Effect – private bidders filled the gap. Access to a doctor is more hard present than 10 years ago, but people are happy that thanks to the kid benefit they can take their recently purchased children to a private clinic in the nearest region town, to a private kindergarten or private school," Bachmann writes. In 2019, the PiS went even further – all kid received a benefit, without, of course, limiting the amount of earnings.
Expectation Spiral
The decisions of the Law and Justice Office "made the spiral of expectations move", which no 1 could defy – the publicist assessed. As he stressed, at the time Donald Tusk came to power, the state money was empty. To win the election, Tusk promised to rise the kid benefit to 200 euros.
While the media in Poland and abroad watched as Poland begins building Europe's strongest army, it increases spending on the military to 5 percent of GDP, buys Korean tanks, American helicopters and Patriot launchers, something else quietly grew even faster – social spending, budget deficit and state debt.
Bachmann cites here the opinion of taxation expert Sławomir Dudek – "We have expenses as if we were Scandinavia and we have taxes like Ireland".
Poland outside the euro area
The author noted that Poland does not belong to the euro area, which means that no 1 will save Poland, as was the case with Greece, due to the fact that another countries were afraid of the domino effect.
The problem of Poland is to stay outside the euro area. No 1 will save Poland to prevent the domino effect, as Angela Merkel did in the case of Greece. little than 13% of Polish debt is in abroad hands, so in the event of a crisis, banks will not be afraid to fall.
Debt management already consumes 9 -10% of budgetary revenue. In Germany it is 6-8 percent and in the US 13.6 percent, but the dollar is inactive the most crucial reserve currency.
Tusk is not the dragon slayer of populism
Bachmann accused the PiS governments of delaying structural reforms for 8 years. In order to stay in power, social gifts were distributed more and more generously, simultaneously erasing public services. The demographic crisis intensified and foreigners were kept distant from the country leading xenophobic campaigns.
Such a situation was inherited by Tusk erstwhile he took over in 2023. After 2 years and the election of Karol Nawrocki as president, the Prime Minister cannot democratically and legally annul or change the situation. "Tusk is not a dragon slayer of populism, but a victim of it," Bachmann concludes.
