It's done. The key component of president Trump's strategy to make America large again has just been implemented. Trump started a customs-trade war with the full world. The erstwhile customs wars with Canada and Mexico were only a tiny prelude. Now duties have been imposed on more than 170 countries in the world, after consideration.
The basic criterion was that imports from individual countries were crucial to the American economy. A alternatively complicated mathematical expression was presented, as if it were calculated. fresh duties have been added to the duties imposed so far, and cumulative duties, for example, for China will scope up to 54%. Similarly, the European Union is affected by cumulative duties (e.g. cars – 45%). The planet wasn't surprised. Trump spoke of the trade war in his first term. It has become a key component of his electoral strategy in terms of abroad policy. It was amazing to include it in the practice of the full planet (except Russia and Belarus), even the deserted and sparsely populated islands in the Pacific, and an unceremonious and abroad way of introducing it with charm the lumberjack waving an axe. The fresh unilateral duties Trump called ‘reciprocal’, but with no country in the planet he negotiated them. The rush to introduce them is due to the sense of mission that has been constantly accompanying Trump's charisma since his entry into politics. The passage of time is besides remarkable. Trump is elderly, and has formally only 1 word ahead of him, but his surroundings are trying to add another, following the maneuver utilized in Russia years ago by the Putin-Miedvedev duo. He besides hopes that the introduction of the most controversial moves at the beginning of his word of office will give him a chance to see their affirmative effects at the end of his term. If they always come. The stated goal is to lift the US out of slow degradation. The default – complete reconstruction of global order and improvement of position in confrontation with China.
The diagnosis of the causes of successive US weakening has been known for years. Its search is the favourite business of many American think tanks, these are the themes of failed political programs, and finally, the themes of home American talks, who in shops and on the streets see an increasingly decreasing number of American products and experience a comparatively deteriorating standard of living. Imports without restrictions gotta end sometime. Sam, erstwhile I was in the United States, I frequently heard harsh comments in conversations. The average Americans blame this state mainly on politicians. The US has since the 1980s, as a consequence of the relocation of production together with frequently advanced technologies mainly to China, lost nearly 100,000 production companies and 5 million jobs. Europe, Japan, and even Taiwan, did likewise. China has masterfully utilized this and has become an economical superpower over the US and the world. In the interior market, the main victim was the poorer mediate class and lower social strata. People rightly combined globalisation and deindustrialization with a deterioration in their life situation. Trump responded to these fears coming especially from the mediocre mediate class. It's his electorate, thanks to which he won. He promised they'd be rich, and he told me how he'd get there. He's doing it now. He warned that at the beginning “a small time” would be worse, but then “it would be wonderful.” America is inactive heavy polarized. Trump's electorate is almost half the population and it hasn't changed since the election. His administration's actions to date are mostly critical. At the time of his presidency on January 20 he enjoyed the support of 47 percent Americans (IPSOS). Currently, support fell to 43%. This is the lowest score since his return to power. More than half of respondents (52%) besides believe that, for example, expanding tariffs on cars and car parts will harm the economy. The decision is supported by 33% of Americans. So it is doubtful that he can increase his support by creating a customs-trade war with the full world. It can number on a possible change only after possible affirmative economical effects, and these can come after years and are uncertain if they come at all.
Trump mostly repeated the U.S. customs war against the planet launched on 13 June 1930 by the Tariff Act of 1930 (called the Smooth-Hawley Act). It was adopted 8 months after a crash on Wall Street of October 1929. The countries attacked responded by their duties. This led to a decrease in US exports by 67%. It is claimed to have been the main origin of the large Depression of the 1930s. The economical collapse that lasted for 4 years affected almost the full world. Today, too, we must anticipate customs repression of the countries attacked. The announcement of American reactions to these retortions signals the winding of the spirals of retaliation. China has already responded with 34 percent duties on all American goods. Even more serious is Beijing's command to retreat Chinese companies' investments from the US economy. China will surely be followed by the countries of the global South. Trump's step so seems to make no sense, and through the expected increase in inflation it will be paid by American society. For example, the imposition of 25-percent tariffs on steel and aluminium will rise consumer prices in the US for all products where there is steel or aluminium, i.e. all household appliances, cars, construction, etc.
According to The Wall Street Journal, Trump is leading to “the stupidest trade war in history”. If you respond with all your strength to American customs, the US will respond even more and yet it will lead to a full trade war that will last for years and will importantly reduce global economical growth, and there will be a recession in the US. Goldman Sachs analysts increased the likelihood of recession in the US to 35 percent and JP Morgan to 40 percent. Customs duties to defend the interior market, reduce the trade deficit (which is already over 980 billion dollars a year), reindustrialise and increase the gross of the budget in Trump's strategy is not everything. There will be a simplification in taxes to which gross from increased duties will go. Rather, fresh measures will mark fresh pro-development and military investments. There is already a departure from the common sense of climate constraints that Trump believes are unnecessary and harmful, due to the fact that climate change is "natural". Thus, the US has again left the Paris climate agreement, and restrictions on natural resources have been abolished in the US. Their exports are expected to make Americans rich again. The celebrated "drive baby drill" (child drill, drill) means restoring not only the acquisition of energy resources in areas that have been excluded for environmental reasons but besides their usage in conventional coal and oil-fired and gas-fired power plants, not counting greenhouse gas emissions. Electricity is expected to be cheaper, to be more costly and to be available quickly, due to the fact that the US is losing competition with China. atomic power plants are built for more than a decade and their cost is astronomical (which we are convinced of), and new, cheaper SMR technologies cannot break through in the West.
SMR-ery are already being created in China and Russia. Furthermore, in China, which is leading in renewable energy sources, at the same time it invests heavy in coal power plants (a fresh Chinese evidence in coal production is over 1 billion tons – for comparison in Poland in the best years of the Polish People's Republic of Poland it was over 100 million tons). Trump so behaves as if he read the EU Draghi study and rapidly drew conclusions. He joined the rivalry with China utilizing their methods (on the margins, the price of energy in the US is nearly twice as low as in the EU).
Another area where savings are sought is national government spending, especially on administration. The average American believes that bureaucracy is besides large and spends no sense. The Department of Government Efficiency has been established, which has already liquidated the first national agencies and laid off workers. But more about this propaganda than the actual effects. Out of over 2 million national officials are to be released 86,000. Illegal immigrants are besides guilty of slowing down. In the perception of most of his constituents they take jobs and burden the social assistance system. They are besides the origin of massive crime, which focuses on areas with a large number of immigrants. Contrary to the common ideas in Europe, the level of crime in another areas of the US does not deviate from European, or even smaller in the conventional American spiritual province. Tramp involves illegal immigration with another serious problem: drug crime. In his opinion, it is adequate to remove illegal immigrants who are a social base for drug cartels and the situation will get much better. Cooperation with Mexico and another Latin American countries is needed for this. There are problems with receiving deported migrants. Trump's determination is evidenced by Mexico's threat of military intervention in its territory to destruct cartels now recognised as terrorist organizations.
His electorate is dominated by conservative spiritual communities having views of the planet very far removed from the dominant liberalism of the Democrats, who see Trump's current moves as shocking. Trump's electorate supports the "revolution of common sense", i.e. the elimination of government-supported DEI (Diversity, Equity, Inclusion) policies – diversity, equality and Inclusion, which were intended to support in society various racial, cultural or sexual minorities in all areas. However, its implementation in practice has led to a frequent omission of the criterion of competence and qualifications for fulfilling statistical rigors. In drastic cases this has led to serious problems due to deficiency of competence (e.g. Boeing aircraft crashes). The revolution of Healthy Reason and another right-wing actions sparks the increasing opposition of liberal and left-wing environments, which is being attempted by the left-wing Democratic organization sect with Senator Bernie Sanders in the lead. So on both sides there are extremes. The Democratic organization has not yet recovered from the defeat, and the Republican Party's mainstream has so far given Trump the field of action. The negative effects of Trump's moves (e.g. expensiveness, reduced economical activity, disruption of supply chains, etc.) can radicalise people. Doesn't bode well.
The fresh Order of the World
Knowing these risks, the question arises as to what it is to serve. Trump's determination may indicate that he knows something dramatic for the US and the West that he does not reveal. It works rapidly and globally without playing with any negotiations that would last for years. Taking into account the experience of the customs government of the 1930s, the global economical crisis from which the fresh political and economical order of the planet will appear is so highly likely. The current state is increasingly unfavourable to the US. If the ideas and assumptions of the anti-American BRICS block (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa + 11 countries) were realised, which already covers almost 3 quarters of the world's population and has more than 25% of its global product, the function of the US in the planet would be completely degraded. This would in peculiar lead to the collapse of the US dollar as a global clearing and thesaurus currency. It is estimated that US GDP would fall by half and that the country would sink into a long-term crisis. The dollar would be replaced by a fresh currency of BRICS, which China and Russia are now finishing. The entry of this currency would be welcomed with joy by the states of the alleged global south, where Chinese influences are already dominant thanks, among others, to investments under the BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) – fresh Silk Road – according to the rule of "honor for loyalty". This besides includes:
– in amazingly pushy attempts at rapprochement with Russia at the expense of Ukraine, in a clear context of the desire to rip Russia out of China's clutches,
– in the omission of Russia and Belarus in duties imposed on practically the full world,
– in astounding attempts to absorb the territory of Canada and Greenland due to the safety of the US and the full West in the context of Arctic seaways and the recovery of the Panama Canal,
– in leaks about the imminent withdrawal of parts of the US troops from Europe (20%) and their referral to the Far East.
Additionally, the authoritative Secretary of State Marco Rubio (2 b. b. in the NATO Headquarters) demanded a extremist and fast increase in NATO defence spending to 5% in the face of the challenges for the West that are coming. This level of military spending is introduced in case of war. At the same time, the "Washington Post" publishes a controlled leak from the Pentagon with a secret message signed by defence secretary Pete Hegseth: "Temporary strategical framework for national defence". According to it, among others, erstwhile planning a possible serious armed conflict China is considered the main opponent. In the event of a threat on the part of Russia, the work for defence lies mainly with European allies. "China is the only major threat to the Department of defence (US) and preventing China from taking Taiwan over – at the same time as US defence – is the only script on which the department focuses". The paper provides for an extension of US military presence in the Indo-Pacific region.
The confirmed information shows plans to strengthen cooperation with Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, the Philippines, Australia and fresh Zealand. A fresh large U.S. military base is to be established in Japan and a seriously reinforced defence of the alleged Second Island Chain, stretched between Japan and the western edge of fresh Guinea. The key point is equipped with strong military bases of Guam Island. The U.S. plans, among others, to grow the airport and seaport on Yap Island (850 km southwest of Guam), port investments on Kosrae Island, construction of warehouses on Pohnpei Island (formerly Ponape), as well as expansion of the main port infrastructure on Chuuk Island (formerly Truk). This includes building elements of a rocket shield in the Marshall Islands and a long-range radar station on the island of Palau. The defence of the second chain of islands is intended to reduce the hazard to the first chain of islands (from Japan to Taiwan). In this way, the United States and their allies want to prevent China from dominating the Indo-Pacific. The full planned investments by the Department of defence in Micronesia are estimated at least at $2 billion, while the Pentagon plans major reductions in personnel and military budget in Europe and in the US. This means concentrating and redirecting funds to the Far East, where the US sees a major threat to itself and allies.
The chaos begins, not only the economies of the world, but besides the countries themselves. The U.S. is expected to be victorious. But it's not certain.
History reminds us that the global crisis and chaos preceded the outbreak of planet War II. The prelude was a war in Spain. Will the war in Ukraine be the same?
