centuries have passed since Poland was a large military power, but now the winged Husaria is returning. erstwhile Russia occupied Crimea in 2014, the Polish armed forces were the ninth largest in NATO. Today they take 3rd place after America and TurkeyAnd their numbers doubled to over 200,000 soldiers. The budget has tripled in real terms up to PLN 134 billion; in Europe only the UK, France and Germany spend more. As a percent of GDP, Poland is far ahead of them.
This period Poland has embraced half-year EU Council Presidency. Its theme, which is not surprising, is security. With Russia's advancement on the battlefield and Donald Trump's uncertain engagement in NATO, the east border of Europe looks unstable. Poland has a rapidly developing economy and a capable prime minister. Can it become a fresh anchor for the safety of east Europe?
Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, Minister of Defence and Deputy Prime Minister, believes so. — We are facing a large threat. If we hadn't taken this chance to build our security, it would have been a historic, tragic failure.
Tomasz Waszczuk / PAPPrime Minister Donald Tusk and Deputy Prime Minister, National Defence Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamish during a Christmas gathering with soldiers. Gołdap, 16 December 2024.
Poland buys from South Korea hundreds of fresh tanks, haubic and multi-guided rocket systems. However, the Minister granted precedence to purchases worth nearly $60 billion (about PLN 240 billion) from the U.S., including a $10 billion (PLN 40.2 billion) contract for 96 Apache assault helicopters and $2.5 billion (10 billion) for the Integrated Combat Command System, the Patriot digital air defence rocket center.
If Kosiniak-Kamish puts emphasis on American shopping, it is due to the fact that his real audience is the White House. Trump announced a defence spending mark of 5% of GDP for NATO members; Poland, as the Minister notes, is only associate who already plans to accomplish it. It estimates that in 2024 it spent 4.1%, and this year it will scope 4.7%. “We did what Trump expects,” says Kosiniak-Kamish. Poland may be “a bridge between the European Union and America”.
Despite all the recently discovered strength of Poland, its precedence is to keep America's commitment. Poland, 1 of the most pro-Atlantic EU members, has long rejected initiatives for European strategical autonomy, especially under the regulation of law and justice. In 2018, PiS unsuccessfully tried to get America to build a military base in Poland, promising to call it “Fort Trump”.
Tusk is more EU-oriented and Trump's indecisiveness convinced Poles that the continent must do more for itself. But they inactive see it as a way to halt the Yankees. “Without America NATO does not function,” says Kosiniak-Kamish.
The hesitations of Poland were most evident in the issue of NATO troops stationing in Ukraine if a ceasefire could be achieved. Emmanuel Macron, president of France, He proposed this idea and he gained momentum in December, erstwhile Trump promised to rapidly end the war. Britain and Germany neither supported nor rejected it. However, Donald Tusk was reluctant to say that Poland “does not plan” to send soldiers — This attitude seems to contradict the aspirations for greater security. Kosiniak-Kamish said that any decision would should be made by NATO as a whole.
Challenges for the Government of Tusk
The main reason for caution is political. The destiny of Donald Tusk's government depends on the result of the presidential election, the first circular of which will be held on 18 May. Prime Minister seeks to eradicate the autocratic heritage of the Law and Justice, which filled the courts, brought dudehood into the government and turned state media into propaganda. The current president comes from the PiS and vetoes Tusk's efforts.
If the election wins Rafał Trzaskowski, Liberal president of Warsaw and the candidate for the Center Citizens' Coalition, reforms can decision forward. If he wins Karol Nawrocki, conservative historian supported by the Law and Justice (which is skeptical of Ukraine's membership of the EU and NATO), the deadlock will continue. The polls give Trzaskowski small advantage.
The ruling coalition is fragile. Tusk failed to liberalize access to abortionwhich was 1 of his main electoral promises. This was disappointing for his allies leftist parties. The centre-right organization Poland 2050 has conservative views on abortion and slowed down reforms. The most far-reaching coalition is the Polish People's Party, headed by Kosiniak-Kamysz. This period he helped the Catholic Church reduce sexual education in schools.
The second reason for Poland's reluctance to engage in the hypothetical deployment of armed forces in Ukraine is bilateral tensions. Both countries have long argued over massacre in Volyn during planet War II, erstwhile Ukrainian guerrillas conducted a run of cultural cleansing, in which about 100,000 Poles were killed. Polish historians want approval to exhume the victims. However, many Ukrainians consider guerrillas to be heroes, and the officials angered Poles, downplaying their atrocities.
Ukraine agreed to let exhumations this month. On a deeper level, however, Polish ambivalence is due to a sense of ingratitude. Many Poles believe that Ukrainians did not thank them adequate for accepting more than 1 million refugees and acting as the main logistics centre for military aid. More crucial is the feeling that in contacts with allies Ukraine bypasses Poland. Volodymyr Zelenski, president of Ukraine, prefers to talk to America, the United Kingdom, France, Germany and the European Commission. His administration doesn't realize its western neighbour very well.
Zelenski illustrated this issue during his visit to Warsaw on 15 January, annoying the Law and Justice that if Nawrocki opposes Ukraine's membership of NATO, should start military training to prepare for war with Russia. Justyna Gotkowska, a defence expert at the Centre for east Studies in Warsaw, claims that Poland would be hard to deploy a brigade in Ukraine. fresh military capabilities will be full operational only from 2026 to 27.
Zelenski's visit was expected to find a way To convince Trump to stay in NATO. Poland's main offer is its increasing defence budget. Unlike another NATO members, it may not be essential to make cuts elsewhere: fresh defence spending is financed by GDP growth by almost 3% in the last year, says Michał Baranowski, Deputy Minister of improvement and Technology. Donald Tusk's government will search to welcome Ukraine to NATO and the EU, no substance how distant these prospects may be — even for the sake of self-interest.
— The strategy of the Polish army is to keep Russia as far distant as possible,” says Kosiniak-Kamish.
