The divorce of PSL and Poland 2050 became a fact. Although for a minute the 3rd Road seemed to be the 3rd force in Polish politics, experts have no illusions: it was a matrimony of reason which had an expiration date from the beginning. What caused the breakdown? And then what about the Holovnia and Kosiniak-Kamisha parties?
According to the political scientists at the University of Warsaw prof. Tomasz Słomka and Dr. Anna Materska-Sosnowska, the breakdown of the 3rd Road was inevitable and signals appeared for a long time. "Mariage of an old conservative organization with a fresh 1 who wants to change the strategy does not warrant a good result" - said Prof. Słomek.
The 3rd Road, the coalition of the Polish People's organization and Poland 2050 of Simon Holown was established before the parliamentary elections in 2023. After respective months of work of the joint programming squad PSL and Poland 2050 announced at the end of April 2023 the establishment of an electoral coalition, in May the name "Third Road" was presented. From the beginning, both parties assumed the establishment of 2 separate parliamentary clubs after the election.
Eventually, the coalition competed jointly in the 2023 parliamentary elections, in which it achieved a 3rd score (14.4%) which translated into 65 parliamentary and 11 senatorial seats. After that, PSL and Poland 2050 besides competed in the local elections in 2024, where they almost repeated their results from the parliamentary elections, with a full of 14.2 percent of the votes (which translated into 80 seats in the voivodship's Sejm, 716 seats in the territory councils and 94 functions of presidents, mayors or mayors).
In the elections to the European Parliament last year, the 3rd Road had already passed a large drop in support, with only 6.97% of the vote, which gave the coalition 3 seats of Euro MPs. The last joint start was this year's presidential election, in which PSL and Poland 2050 supported a joint candidate - the talker of the Sejm and leader of 1 of the coalition parties - Simon Holovnia. In the end, Holownia obtained the 5th consequence with the support of 4.99% of voters, giving way not only to Karol Nawrock and Rafał Trzaskowski, but besides to Sławomir Mentzen and Grzegorz Braun.
After announcing the results of the presidential election, Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced the reconstruction of the government to take place in July. Since then, Deputy Head of the Ministry of Agriculture Michał Kołodziejczak has resigned and the fresh Deputy Head of the Ministry of abroad Affairs is Marcin Bosacki. In the meantime, post-election settlements have begun in individual parties forming part of the ruling coalition.
On Tuesday late evening, Holovnia reported on platform X that the PSL ultimate Council had decided to complete the 3rd Way project. PSL politicians clarified in an interview with PAP that specified a resolution had not been adopted, but the organization leader, Deputy Prime Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz announced that the peoples in the following elections would run themselves. The hoarding in its Tuesday entry on X expressed knowing of this decision and added that both parties agreed to a joint start in a series of 4 elections.
According to Dr. Materska-Sosnowska, this breakdown "was inevitable" and the decay signals have already appeared for any time. In her opinion, this was demonstrated by the tiny engagement of the leader of PSL Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz in the Holownia presidential campaign. "Kosiniak-Kamysz seemingly became more active only after the first round, in the run (KO candidate) of Rafał Trzaskowski" - added the polytolologist.
According to prof. Tomasz Słomka of the University of Warsaw, the breakdown of the 3rd Way is natural due to the fact that "the expression of this task is exhausted". In his opinion, he pointed to this, among others, as a disappointment with the consequence that Holovnia gained in the fresh presidential election.
According to the expert, the consequence in the 2023 parliamentary elections showed the possible of the coalition, but the consequence in the Holowna presidential election was a disappointment to PSL.
A polytolist from the University of Warsaw Dr. Anna Materska-Sosnowska is of akin opinion. In her opinion, the alliance between PSL and Poland 2050 was a tactical alliance. In the view of Materska-Sosnowska The 3rd Way "it was a matrimony by reason and there was a political interest in it", and the main goal - entry into parliament - was achieved.
According to Prof. Słomka, another component that indicated that the task would not be extended as expected after the 4 elections to which groups were to go together were clear worldview frictions. "The PSL environment has a stabilizing, conservative character, while the Holownia environment advocates changes in the strategy and specified a matrimony of an old, somewhat conservative organization with a fresh organization that wanted to change something in the system, it is not entirely successful" - said the expert.
Dr. Materska-Sosnowska besides admitted that the differences in the programs of both groups were apparent. She recalled that although the parties went together to the parliamentary elections, however, both groups in the parliament had 2 separate parliamentary clubs and were not always in line with the votes. She besides stressed that the TD chapter should not have a clear impact on the work of the current government.
According to Prof. Słomka for the people, the separation with the Holowna group is simply a decision "pragmatic and surely decently analysed". According to the expert, the PSL is thus seeking to cut off media speculations about the end of independency and independency of this group or to let the organization to make "certain shuffle on the political stage".
It is possible according to Prof. Słomka - that there are different scenarios here, including even moving to opposition or winning a fresh position within the governing coalition. Prof. Słomka besides did not exclude the cooperation of PSL with PiS and the Confederation in the framework of a possible right-wing government in the future.
"PSL is so rotating and so universal in the Polish political strategy that it most likely has the most interesting possibilities to operate in it" - concluded Prof. Słomek.
The Politologist besides stated that the Holownia group was in a hard situation. In the opinion of Prof. Słomki Poland 2050 may turn out to be the alleged supernova, or "party of 1 season", which in erstwhile parliamentary elections achieved election success due to the improvement of the election niche. However, as the expert added, the next election may not be in parliament or become part of the Citizens' Coalition.
On the another hand, Dr Materska-Sosnowska stated that both groups were facing a very intense effort to "build themselves" before the next parliamentary elections. In her opinion, the results of the last polls are not optimistic for either of these 2 parties and if they neglect to make a unchangeable group of voters, then "it may turn out that the task of Poland 2050 will end". She stressed that the PSL is in a better position due to the fact that it has "stability and structures built for many years".
