author:Zbigniew Jacniacki
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The Catholic Church in III RP - at the latest in 6 years his hegemony will be history, and the future will belong to those who will better respond to the intellectual needs of contemporary Poles
The Catholic Church in Poland and Germany loses the faithful – the data is unambiguous and changes in society are clear. In Germany, the drain is formal and massive, in Poland little visible, as most residents inactive declare their membership of Rome. But the rate of decline in Poland announces that Catholics can become a number – when? Let's do this in a minute.
Who will take their place – conscious supporters of doctrine like Taoism, Muslims or LGBT community?
The answer lies in numbers, stories, and human needs. In my analysis, I focus on the last 10 years.
Germany: decrease in numbers
In Germany, the Catholic Church shrinks quickly. The German Episcopal Conference (DBK) states: in 2024 321 611 people formally left – little than 522 821 in 2022 but inactive over 300 thousand. Plus 212,000 deaths, which is simply a failure of 533,000 a year. fresh believers are almost gone – 1839 joined, 4743 returned. Of the 23.94 million in 2014, there was 19.77 million in 2024 – a drop of 4 million in a decade. This is simply a decline from 28.5% of the population (84 million) to 23.5%.
The Sacraments are weakening. Baptisms in 2024: 116 222, by 29.6% little than 164 997 in 2014. First communion: 152,280, minus 19.9% of 190,000. Confirmations: 105 041, down 30% from 150,000. Catholic Marriages: 22 504, by 48.9% little than 44,000 in 2014. Turnout at Mass is 6.6% (1.3 million out of 19.77 million), with extremes– 14.4% in the Diocese of Zgorzelec, 4% in Saar. The Kirchensteuer strategy (€8.5 billion in 2022) does not halt the faithful – for many it is unnecessary spending.
Poland: the faithful are, but the proportions are weakening
In Poland, the Church holds on stronger, although it loses its position. The National Census 2021: Catholics are 71.6% of the population (27.2 million out of 38 million), in 2011 there were 88.7% (33.7 million) – a decline of 6.5 million in the decade. Turnout at Mass: 28.3% in 2021 (7.7 million), in 2019 inactive 36.9% (10 million). CBOS 2022: only 42% of Catholics practice, among young (18-24 years) 23%, compared with 69% in 1992. Tarnów diocese: 66% attendance, Warsaw: 20%. Baptisms: from 374,000 in 2014 to 312,000 in 2021 (minus 16.6%). Church vows: from 75% couples in 2010 to 55% in 2021.
Comparison: different pace, akin meta
Germany lost 4 million faithful (16.7%), Poland 6.5 million (19.3%). Germany started with 28.5% of the population, Poland with 88.7%. There the apostasy is formal – Kirchensteuer grows akin statistics. In Poland, the deficiency of taxation maskes the real drain – many stay Catholics only on the certificate of baptism. Germany has been in secularization for decades, Poland has moved on later, but catching up.
At the present rate Catholics in Poland can halt being a majority – when?
From 2011 (33.7 million) to 2021 (27.2 million) it decreased 6.5 million in 10 years, or 650 000 per year. The Polish population is 38 million, the majority above 19 million. From 27.2 million in 2021, with a decline of 650 000 per year: 2026 – 23.95 million, 2030 – 20.7 million, 2031 – 18.05 million. By 2031 Catholics would fall below 50% (47.5%). In six years, by a steady trend, they will cease to dominate. This is assuming the unchanged trend and population. And this presumption is very optimistic.
Vatican: deficiency of political power
The Vatican erstwhile had power. In 800, Leon III crowned Charles the Great, in 1077 Gregory VII forced Henry IV to submit in Canoss. In Poland Bolesław Chrobry received a crown from John XIX in 1025, Jagieło support after the baptism of Lithuania in 1386. The Popes legitimized kings, called crusades, decided on politics and privileges. Without political background, the Church loses importance in social life.
Taoism, mindfulness and alternatives: what next?
People search meaning outside the Church. Modern man, raised on discipline and critical thinking, does not accept the imagination of the planet created about 6000 years ago, as in the conventional chronology of Judaism and Christianity – (based on the Book of Genesis and calculations, e.g. Archbishop James Ussher) sits the creation of the planet for about 4004 BC.
Cosmology (or possibly fiction) speaks of 13.8 billion years of the universe, paleontology of millions of years of evolution – this collision with the biblical narrativ repels many. Instead, they search systems that do not require religion in literal myths.
Taoism, with simplicity and deficiency of dogmas, gains supporters. In Poland, 1.2 million people practice yoga (SW investigation 2022), the mindfulness marketplace worth PLN 50 million (PMR 2023) offers MBSR courses (1500 PLN for 8 weeks), applications like Headspace (10 million users in Europe), retreats for PLN 3000 in the mountains or on the Baltic Sea, group sessions in companies reducing stress. In Germany, 3.5 million meditates (Statista 2023), “Tao Te Ching” goes to thousands. The conscious want doctrine – the harmony of Taoism, not rituals and hierarchy.
Muslims are also option. In Germany, 6.5 million (7.8% of the population, 2023), in Poland 30,000, but migrations can change that. LGBT community besides grows stronger – Equality Marches in Poland attract thousands, in Germany it is standard.
In 2031, erstwhile Catholics are a minority, who will dominate? Conscious followers of Taoism, Muslim diaspora, or progressive movements? Or possibly something else. That's an open question.
Political-act programmes will decide
Germany lost 4 million believers, Poland 6.5 million. There secularization is advanced, here most stick to Rome – but only until 2031, erstwhile Catholics may fall below 50%. The Vatican, without political force, will not halt this trend. People reject old narratives, choosing Taoism, mindfulness, Islam or equality – options that make sense without dogmas.
The Catholic Church in Poland - no later than 6 years from now, its hegemony will be history, and the future will belong to those who will better respond to the intellectual needs of the contemporaries.
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I envy the author of optimism
So, six years from now, these mediocre people are gonna get up off their knees or shrink their ranks?
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And are specified young fools, as below, born in the desert, or in a large background of household and community, where they are religiously indoctrinate?
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The fall in the number of baptisms, communions, confirmations and weddings is not to be suggested, it is primarily the consequence of a demographic collapse (wedding – unfortunately here, besides another factors origin regression). The simplification in attendance at Masses is mainly due to the return to "picture civilization" (a phenomenon highly negative for all culture and for human development) alternatively than to the failure of attractiveness of spiritual indoctrination. The more foolish the individual is, the easier it is to be treated religiously, and the overall level of education has fallen alarmingly.
“Without political background, the Church loses its meaning in social life.”
This short conviction (quote) contains quite a few content. Is the Church truly losing political facilities? It is not that the political “elites” of the West turn distant from the Church. They recognized and realized his influence on the mentality of the sheep, which the Church is able to propose appropriate attitudes (indoctrination) – hence the apparent conflict with the Church strengthening the movement of his defenders (for who will not be honest in defending the oppressed virtue -?) – and of course the Concordats, and thus the money for the Roman Curia. Therefore, it is not amazing that the Church is on the side of “elite” of planet Zionism, or politics of the West.
And since the socio-political situation will increasingly negatively affect Western societies, including Catholic sheep, a average reaction may be to return to the womb of the Church, which will sale the sheep its best commodity—the hope of surviving in the Divine Paradise, of course after death—and so far there is no complaint that the Church is trading unproven goods (?). Why is that possible? It is due to the fact that the public has been deprived of the ability to implement policies in the name of their own interests, policies guaranteeing interior and external security. And the Church has its mission perfectly mastered:
The President
