Borders of fact and emotion. On migration, numbers and propaganda
Although the figures on the readmission of migrants from Germany to Poland are hundreds, not tens of thousands – like the thunders of nationalist propaganda – and although the data are unambiguous and show a extremist decline in attempts to illegally cross the Polish-Belarusian border (from 12 1000 in 2023 to only 400 in the first half of 2025), the actual image of the situation inactive loses its narration.
Because in today's news world, it's not what happened, it's what you want to hear.
Let's start with facts – those cool, dry, uncomfortable for those who like emotions.
Two border procedures are involved:
1. References under the readmission or Dublin III Agreement
That is the formal transfer of migrants from Germany (or another EU country) to Poland. This applies to persons who:
– they entered the EU illegally through the Polish border (the alleged ‘Belarusian footprint’),
– or they had a valid visa or the right of residence only in Poland (not across the Schengen area) and only later went to Germany or beyond.
2. Turnover (Zurückweisung)
So called by the Germans, and by the Polish Border defender referred to as "not letting in". It is about situations where foreigners are returned from the German border before leaving Poland. This can be called ‘reflection from the German border’. They are not allowed in for the same reasons as sent back, but they have not formally left Poland yet.
It is hard to anticipate Polish statistic to be for this – these people were in Poland and inactive stayed there.
Official data on references from Germany to Poland:
• 2021 – 342 people
• 2022 – 630 people
• 2023 – 968 people
• 2024 – 688 people
• 2025 (until 22 June) – 314 people
They're not tens of thousands. This is not a "mass influx of migrants from Germany" that scares any media and politicians. This is simply a procedure that has been in place for years between the countries of the European Union.
Data from the Bundespolizei concerning the conversion of foreigners at the Polish-German border:
• 2021 – 20 people
• 2022 – 54 people
• 2023 – 1705 people
• 2024 – 9369 people
• 2025 (until the end of May) – 2765 people
The increase since 2023 is mainly due to the restoration of border control by Germany in October 2023.
Who are they turning around? Most of them are foreigners with a right of residence in Poland, e.g. citizens of Ukraine with a residence card, but with a expired passport. They cannot decision freely around the European Union as citizens of associate States. Their turning from the German border is not a sensation – it is simply a simple enforcement.
What about the migrants with the alleged "Belarusian image"? Since the beginning of 2025, they have been virtually gone. The migration flow to Germany was limited to almost zero.
Readmissions are agreed with the Polish Border Guard. Turn around, no. due to the fact that how can we agree if these people have never formally left Poland?
But despite these facts – despite available statistics, authoritative reports and clearly described procedures – emotions win at the border. Not numbers, not logic, not rational perspective. due to the fact that they're cold. due to the fact that they're not good for strong headlines, memes and gaudy electoral slogans.
The fact is boring, complicated and requires a minute of focus. Propaganda is simple and loud.
In the worldWhen less and less people can think coolly, the numbers don't stand a chance.
And 1 more thing.
Why does Tusk control the Polish-German border?
Do German migrants want to flee to Poland?
With Lithuania, it makes sense – specified as the German control makes sense.
But here? It's just a political theatre.
Why does Tusk control the Polish-German border?
Do German migrants want to flee to Poland?
With Lithuania, it makes sense – specified as the German control makes sense.
But here? It's just a political theatre.
