In 2025 the second word of office of president Andrzej Duda is coming to an end. The launch of the Tri-Sea Initiative will most likely be considered its top accomplishment in global policy. This comment assesses the situation in which this task is located. The content of the text was divided into 3 parts: the past, the present and the future.
Past
Main Polish geopolitical ideas of fresh decades These included left-wing concepts (breaking peripherality), liberal concepts (modernisation, joining the EU leadership) and right-wing concepts (regaining leadership in the region). The outline of the concept of the Trimorz, which was created in 2014-2016, combined all these directions of reflection, due to the fact that the general intent of Polish abroad policy is to build a comparative power of the state in Europe, and the essential components of this process are, for example, to have a modern economy, infrastructure, army and diplomacy.
Intellectual background for the Tri-Sea Initiative project were Atlantic Council reports (proposals for infrastructure expansion in Central and east Europe)[and] and the work of authors specified as Parag Khanna (contextivity and strategical flows concepts)[ii]. The reception of these concepts in Poland fell on susceptible ground. In the first decade of EU presence (2004-2014) Poland has importantly accelerated the expansion of road, rail and energy infrastructure[iii]. akin processes were besides observed in another countries of the region. After respective years, the possible for greater autonomy of Warsaw in European policy and the link between the interests of east EU countries around common infrastructure projects has emerged.
Infrastructural hold is due to the historical difference in the destiny of our region from Western Europe (invasions, wars, collapses of states, empires, communism) and for years has been described in the language of dependency theory[iv]. The east of the continent was poorer and referred to as the periphery of the West[v]. In the global division of labour, we offered natural materials and products of inferior quality, and our main competitive advantage was inexpensive work. After 1989, this allowed for fast expansion of western companies and gradual integration of the region into the western production network. European integration strengthened the political dimension of cooperation erstwhile the erstwhile outskirts of the USSR were given the chance to participate in the European Union task on equal terms with Western neighbours. In Poland, the debate on the position of the state and region in European policy has returned[vi]. From 2005 to 2015, quite a few publications and reports appeared on the subject, and fresh magazines and geopolitical societies were created.[vii].
At the end of the first decade of the 21st century, Poland and Sweden proposed in the EU, the alleged east Partnership project[viii]. It was an initiative referring to pre-war Polish geopolitical traditions and widely commented on in Europe. Later by a fewer years, the Tri-Sea Initiative (3SI) task proved to be a larger, broader and much more influential project. While the east Partnership was to support the pro-Western elites of respective russian countries, the Tri-Mortal Initiative included a full of respective countries, representing 28% of the EU's surface area and generating GDP of $3.3 trillion USD[ix].
EARTH
In May 2017, president Andrzej Duda said that decided to make the Trimorese Initiative 1 of the priorities of his presidency[x]. The fresh geopolitical task was to combine the past (delay), the present (cooperation in the EU) and the future (the strong position of the region in the global economy). Within little than a decade of the launch of the Tri-Sea Initiative, respective forums of cooperation were created, respective twelve infrastructure projects were launched, which we described in the December 2023 study of the ECI[xi].
The key themes of the 3 Seas have been made (1) the improvement of transport infrastructure, which is designed to increase mobility and transport efficiency in the region; (2) strengthening energy cooperation (energy transformation and independency from Russia); and (3) developing digitalisation and fresh technologies. In all these areas (the level of infrastructure, energy diversification and innovation) was below the European average. At the same time, the size and intent of the three-sea task has attracted interest from the US, the European Commission, China, Germany and late Japan. No country in the 3SI region alone could number on specified large players of the planet economy. Meanwhile, the economies of the region are growing, as the illustration below points out.
Figure 1. Growth in GDP of the 3 seas from 2016 to 2024 according to Atlantic Council.
Source: Atlantic Council, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-tepeh-research-reports/issue-brief/the-three-seas-initiative-stands-at-an-inflation-point/
Over the period 2014-2024, any of the highest GDP growths per capita in the world in Poland (44%), Lithuania (38%), Hungary, Latvia, Slovenia, Slovakia and the Czech Republic (OECD data)[xii]. According to Eurostat, quality of life in Europe is increasing the fastest in Croatia, Poland, Romania and Bulgaria[xiii]. The accumulated GDP of the Tri-Mediterranean states is already greater than France, and trade with Germany alone exceeds trade with China.
In a fresh survey at the Institute of fresh Europe Jędrzej Błaszczak described key 3SI initiatives specified as business forum, investment fund, and a list of 143 infrastructure projects[xiv]. The list is updated annually and includes projects of 13 countries participating in the 3SI, and since the Vilnius Summit besides by the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine. So far, Croatia (33), Hungary (17), Poland (11) and Latvia (10) have reported the most projects. 51% of the projects concern transport, 39% energy and 10% digitalisation. Estimated cost of implementation is EUR 111 billion[xv].
FUTURE
Over the last decade Poland has become a real ‘engine’ of the region Central and east Europe, as observed by The Economist[xvi]. In 2025 the global Monetary Fund reported that the Polish economy will shortly be among the world's top 20 economies[xvii]. In 2026 the value of the Polish economy will exceed $1 trillion / 4 trillion[xviii]. This is an historical achievement. In this way Poland will advance Switzerland and will come closer to Saudi Arabia and the Netherlands. The size of the Polish economy will be only twice as tiny as Russia, and already it is larger than most east European countries taken together (see graphics below). Russia's gradual economical collapse increases Poland's influence in east Europe.
Graphic 1. Visualization of the size of the Polish economy in 2024.
Source:
The Tri-Sea Initiative includes countries that have developed over the last 20 years as 1 of the fastest in the world, which allowed us to catch up on the distance to Western Europe, gain influence in the EU and build a network of regional cooperation that has never existed before. The forecast GDP growth of the 3 seas is expected to be around 35% over the next 5 years[xx]. Infrastructure investments will amount to over EUR 1.1 trillion. This means more infrastructure and energy projects[xxx]. The share of private investment is expected to double. After the completion of key projects in these areas, an increase in the number and value of fresh technology and innovation projects is expected.
Over the decade 3SI has become an effective platform for political cooperation for Poland with a scope importantly greater than the Visegrad Group. Almost all country in the region has a affirmative trade balance, although the countries of Trimorz have not become a bigger trading partner for Poland than Germany[xxi]. The 3SI region is increasing and becoming an crucial area of the planet economy, which seeks fresh industrial specialisation. The subsequent launch allowed the countries of the region to adopt technological innovations more rapidly and bypass the costly barriers to entry into high-tech markets. It remains an open substance whether the countries of the region will be able to make usage of the opportunities before their growth is halted by the risks of limping demography and hard energy transformation.
The advantage of the Tri-Sea Initiative from the point of view of improvement geography is investment in expanding mobility of factors of production, improving infrastructure, improving business location, supporting growth poles and another conditions for innovation and endogenous growth. As I have already mentioned, the sustainable filling of the infrastructure gap and ensuring energy safety will change regional priorities towards the improvement of smart cities, support for innovation and a knowledge-based economy. We should be prepared for this.
The 3 Sea Initiative inactive has its problems. These include depopulation of the countries of the region, local disparities, dominance of public private investment and free implementation of certain projects[xxii]. These deficits besides point to increasing needs in terms of innovation, automation or business support. As regards the geopolitical dimension of the 3SI, this format inactive does not have its own secretariat, making it hard to communicate on a permanent multilateral basis and weakening the regional lobbying among key countries and companies. Furthermore, the deficiency of a permanent communication platform undermines the prospects of intergovernmental cooperation. 3SI was created as a presidential format and "political parasol" for infrastructure improvement in Central and east Europe, but after a decade of improvement it is worth considering strengthening the intergovernmental dimension of cooperation. Now is besides the time to start a debate on 3SI improvement directions in the future, with a peculiar focus on fresh technologies. If Poland aspires to be the leader of the region, then we should either initiate or at least be present in all key debates about its future.
[and]Completing Europe – From the North-South Corridor to Energy, Transportation, and Telecommunications Union, Atlantic Council, 21.11.2014, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-tepeh-research-reports/report/completing-europe-from-the-north-south-corridor-to-energy-transportation-and-telecommunication-union/; The Road Ahead. CEE Transport and Infrastructure Dynamics, Atlantic Council & PwC, https://www.pwc.pl/en/pdf/the-road-ahead-report-pwc-atlantic-Council.pdf
[ii] Lt. P. KhannaConectography. Mapping the Future of Global Civilization, fresh Confederation Publishing, Warsaw 2022.
[iii]Polish 10 years in the Union. Report, Ministry of abroad Affairs, Warsaw 2014, https://journalist.msz.gov.pl/en/p/msz_en/foreign/foreign_policy_economic/balance_membership_polski_w_ue/index.html
[iv] M. Piatkowski, Poland’s fresh golden age : shifting from Europe’s periphery to its center, Policy investigation working paper, planet Bank Group, Washington 2013, http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/285611468107064618
[v] T. Pavluszko, Europe of many speeds and the question of east Europe. Center-peripheral take,
Yearbook of the Institute of Central and east Europe, 2021, (No 2), pp. 259-282.
[vi] See, for example, Mr Grudziński, The intelligent state. Poland in search of an global role, Adam Marshal Publishing House, Toruń 2008.
[vii] Mr Ukielski, Map of the 3 Seas. Review of common points and divergences in the policy of 12 countries of the region, study of the Jagiellonian Club Analysis Centre, no. 3/2016, Kraków 2016; K. Świder, Central Europe as a geopolitical plan area, European Studies, No. 2, 2018, pp. 11-32; A. Balcer, Poland and the Trump Trimor: a chance for a fresh opening?, Batory Foundation, February 2021.
[viii]Eastern Partnership, the European Council, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policy/eastern-partnership/
[ix] K. Popławski, J. Jakubowski, Trimor as a consequence from Central Europe to global and EU challenges,
International Affairs, 2020, pp. 73, no. 2, pp. 23-44; K. Popławski, J. Jakobowski, Towards closer links. Trimor as an economical area, Polish economical Institute, Warsaw, July 2020.
[x]April 28-29, The Tri-Sea Initiative Summit in Warsaw, https://www.president.pl/updates/international bureau-policy/updates/in-April-in-warszaw-jubilee-top-initiative-three,97278
[xi]Three-sea. Building the region. Report, T. Pavluszko, A. Borówka, M. Gebska, J. Wilczek, Institute of fresh Europe, Warsaw, December 2023. https://ine.org.pl/troimor-building-region/
[xii]Ranked: Real GDP Per Capita Growth by Country (2014-2024), Visual Capitalist, 7 April 2025, https://www.visualcapitalist.com/real-gdp-per-capita-growth-country-2014-2024/
[xiii]Ranked: Where surviving Standards Are Rising in Europe (2014-2024), Visual Capitalist, 8 April 2025, https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ranked-where-live-standards-are-rising-in-europe-2014-2024/
[xiv] J. Bliss, The Tri-Sea Initiative: the function of Poland in the heart of Central Europe, 11 March 2025, https://ine.org.pl/initiative-trojmorza-rola-polski-w-centre-europy-central/
[xv]3SI. Selected precedence projects, ISP PAN, https://trojmorze.isppan.waw.pl/news/chosen-priority projects/
[xvi]How Poland can keep its place at the heart of Europe, The Economist, May 22, 2025, https://www.economist.com/leaders/2025/05/22/how-poland-can-keep-its-place-at-the-heart-of-europe
[xvii]Republic of Poland: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and message by the Executive manager for the Republic of Poland, global Monetary Fund, January 21, 2025, https://www.imp.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2025/01/17/Republic-of-Poland-2024-Article-IV-Consultation-Press-Release-Staff-Report-and-Statement-by-560997
[xviii]Poland joins the largest economies in the world. Does he have a chance to advance to the G20?, Business Insider, July 28, 2025, https://businessinsider.com.pl/economy/polska-dolacza-do-grona-largest-economy-world-do-fare-na-wans-do-g20/bjhbj1g
[xx]Perspectives for infrastructure investments in Trimorz. peculiar Report, SpotData, https://reports.spotdata.pl/trimor
[xxx]The Decade of the Tri-Sea Initiative is simply a decade of strategical projects – Andrzej DudaAll that's important. https://allimportant.pl/pepites/decade-initiatives-trojmorza-to-decade-strategic-projects-andrzej-duda/
[xxi]The socio-economic situation of the country, abroad trade, Central Statistical Office of Poland, 23 July 2025, https://ssgk.stat.gov.pl/Trade_foreign.html
[xxii] Lt. M. Steć, Six years of the 3 Sea Initiative. Half success and inactive untapped potential, the Jagiellonian Club, 7 October 2021, https://klubjagillonski.pl/2021/10/07/shesc-year-initiative-trojmorza-polowic-success-and-still-unused-potential/
