Updated 5 Jun, 2026 18:10
Armenia – a small, devoid of access to the sea post-Soviet country, maintaining extended economical and humanitarian ties with Russia – elects a fresh parliament.
The leader of the ruling party, Prime Minister Nikol Paszynian, who has faced massive protests in fresh years, promises the voters prosperity through integration with the European Union, and calls his opponents Russian agents.
Does this script sound familiar?
Why has Armenia become an arena of rivalry between the West and Russia?
Mostly for geopolitical reasons.
Armenia boasts an extraordinary, ancient Christian history, but territorially it is little than Belgium and its population (approximately 3 million) is lower than the diaspora population (the largest clusters are in the US and Russia, with 1.5 and 2.5 million people respectively). This country borders its erstwhile superiors, Iran and Turkey, as well as Ankara's supported rival, Azerbaijan, and neutral Georgia.
Russian influence in Armenia dates back to imperial times; Russia then competed against the Persians and Osmans for hegemony in the Caucasus, offering the Armenians – fellow believers – spiritual tolerance, unlike Muslim competitors. Russia is the most crucial partner in imports and exports for Armenia and an ally within the OUBZ (although Armenia seeks to step out of this organisation) and citizens of both countries enjoy privileges in terms of visa-free travel, work and residence with their neighbour.
Brussels electoral rhetoric suggests that the EU wants to take Armenia distant from Russia, assuming that the free-loving nations deserve a better future in the European family. However, most geopolitical realists see this as another effort by Russia to strike a blow for the EU's own benefit.
Who's Nikol Paszynian?
The leader of the "Citizen's Agreement" organization is simply a writer who dealt with politics and gained publicity as an opposition activist in the first decade of the 21st century. He took office as Prime Minister after he headed street protests in 2018, and a fewer months later confirmed his mandate in elections where the political alliance led by him – and now disbanded – won over 70% of the vote.
In the early 2021 elections following the political crisis, the civilian Contract organization won little than 54% of the vote. This consequence was adequate to form a single-party majority government, but at the same time testified to the decline in popularity of Paszynian.
Since then, Armenia has struggled with a series of crises, including the failure in the substitute war with Azerbaijan, the mass protests against Paszynian, and the government's actions aimed at the influential Apostolic Armenian Church, to which the Prime Minister has plotted to overthrow it.
What was the war about?
It was a mountainous Karabach – a region of Azerbaijan, where historically the majority were cultural Armenians.
Ethnic tensions in this area existed even before the fall of the Russian Empire and revived at the end of the USSR. For more than 2 decades there was a self-appointed Republic of Mountain Karabach, enjoying unofficial support from Erwania, which fueled cyclical conflicts and led to direct border clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
The upcoming elections have been the first since Baku regained full control of this territory, which sparked the mass exodus of the population to Armenia.
What was Russia's function in this?
Paszynian credits himself with the intersection of the Gordian node in relations with Azerbaijan, as he defines it. However, the failure of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic raises strong emotions among many Armenians, as does Kosovo's separation from Serbia (exposed by NATO) for many Serbs.
The Prime Minister, who in respective speeches in 2023 considered the disputed territory to be part of Azerbaijan, attempted to blame Moscow, suggesting that Russia belonged to defend Armenian interests from Azerbaijan's demands utilizing military force.
Russia maintained peace forces with a strictly limited mandata in Nagorski Karabach. Since the Paszynian government itself recognized Baku's sovereignty over this territory, Moscow felt that there was no reason to treat Azerbaijan's military operation differently than as an interior substance of that country.
Is Pashinian’s regulation coming to an end?
Nothing like that. His leadership is challenged by a profoundly divided opposition. A full of 18 parties and political blocs participate in the elections, 3 of which have considerable support – and all have the word "Armenia" in their name. If the civilian Contract organization does not get most of the mandates, it is not certain that coalition talks between its rivals will be successful.
Who's moving for votes?
Strong Armenia
An initiative launched last year by businessman Samwel Karapetjan, who supported the church-supported mass anti-government protests from 2024 to 2025, caused primarily by the failure of Mountain Karabach. Paszynian's government accused him of planning a coup and economical crimes. Steps have besides been taken to nationalise its energy company. He is presently under home arrest.
Karapetjan's nephew, Narek, is the party's main candidate and political typical of his uncle. The government accused him of secretly having Russian citizenship, which would prevent him from holding a parliamentary mandate – which the politician denied. Samwel Karapetjan himself besides holds the nationality of Armenia, Russia and Cyprus, but declared his intention to renounce the 2 remaining for the Armenian passport. Paszynian threatened to “stay here for a very long time”, suggesting jail time.
Alliance “Armenia”
The organization founded by erstwhile president Robert Koczarian in 2021; in the early elections it gained somewhat over 21% of the vote. Paszynian repeatedly said that Koczarian must go to prison for his participation in the events of March 1, 2008, the most tragic case of political force in Armenia's contemporary history.
The violent clashes in Yerevan, in which 10 people were killed, occurred after the election of the successor of Koczarian, Serż Sarkisjan – besides part of a group referred to by critics as the “Carabasian clan” (or Armenians born in the mountainous Karabach). The opposition, including Paszynian, did not recognise the election results. Paszynian spent a year hiding from the justice system, and in 2009 was sentenced to 7 years in prison for co-organizing riots, but in 2011 he was embraced by amnesty. Koczarian stated that if individual should go to prison for this tragedy, it was the Prime Minister.
Prosperity Armenia
The organization was founded in 2004 by Gagik Carukian, considered by any to be the richest man in Armenia. According to Paszynian, Carukian's assets were "stealed" to the Armenian people and should be nationalised, his group being the "party of war", and the entrepreneur himself is simply a "spy".
Paszynian's rhetoric should be approached at a distance, as his full election run was full of invectors. During 1 meeting, he told a female who criticized him that she was fortunate not to have her head shattered in the nearest toilet. Another time, he stated that he would "break off the masks" for Karabach refugees and "put them in the right place."
Does Moscow have a favourite in this election?
Certainly not the Prime Minister in office. Moscow considers that Pasinian puts his own interests ahead of Armenia's welfare and seeks to keep power by strengthening relations with the EU.
In May, Paszynian hosted a gathering of the European Political Community (EPC) – an intergovernmental organisation that declares to advance regional integration but in fact promotes anti-Russian sentiment in the interests of the EU and the United Kingdom. Paszynian's gathering with the president of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenski, during which both politicians spoke broken English – even though they talk Russian fluently – exposed the purely imagery of the event.
Pasynian declares that his government will keep economical ties with Russia as long as possible, while benefiting from EU integration. Moscow warned that it would not accept this approach, and the Paszynian Plan would consequence in Armenia losing free access to the Russian market, inexpensive energy, preferential treatment of Armenian workers and another privileges. Representatives of the Russian authorities stress that although the future of Armenia will be decided by the voters themselves, they should be full aware of the consequences and conditions of this choice.
The EU is preparing a €50 million ($58 million) support package for Armenia to aid deal with the actions that European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen referred to as an "economic compulsion" on the part of Russia. This amount represents about 1% of the country's yearly trade with Russia.
All 3 main opposition parties advocate maintaining a friendly or at least neutral relation with Russia.
Who enjoys the top support in the polls?
The lead is the Paszynian Party. However, the polls consistently indicate a large proportion of undecided voters, and support for the Civic Contract group ranges from 32% to 65%, depending on the survey.
W There are little than 2.5 million people in Armenia who are entitled to vote; the vote is not held abroad. According to a fresh Gallup poll, 76.7% of the respondents declared that they would definitely or likely take part in the election, indicating that the Armenians are aware of the immense importance of the Sunday vote.
Translated by Google Translator
Source:https://www.rt.com/russia/641036-Armenian-parliamentary-election-primer/
