Prime Minister Donald Tusk reported on September 10 in Bratislava that he had received a "precise report" from CIA manager John Ratcliffe about the threats in the coming months. He warned against provocations at border crossing points and sabotage in Poland. For Poles this means real strengthening of borders, counterintelligence and protection of critical infrastructure.
Report not disclosed
Donald Tusk spoke about the threat after the gathering of the Heads of State Government of the Visegrad Group and Prime Minister of Ireland Micheál Martin in Bratislava. The Prime Minister stated that John Ratcliffe's study concerns possible events in the coming months. However, the public did not know its content, the degree of probability of individual scenarios or the recommendations of the American Intelligence Agency.
This reservation is important. We know the informing is state-ranked and comes from direct contact with the CIA. However, we do not know what circumstantial operations have been described. The authority has the right to defend operational data, but it cannot obscure the secret of questions about the readiness of Polish services, borders and infrastructure.
The study preceded Meeting of Tomasz Siemoniak with CIA Director. On Tuesday, the Minister of peculiar Services coordinator informed the Prime Minister that he had given the Prime Minister the most crucial findings regarding Poland's security. This shows that it is not about a loose political assessment, but about information analysed at the highest level.
Border crossings on the provocation target
Tusk said that thanks to the cooperation of Polish and Ukrainian services the immediate threat to 1 of the border crossings was avoided. He did not give his name or nature of danger. However, he announced that the state was preparing for provocations aimed at crossing the border with Ukraine and acts of sabotage within the country.
Border points are delicate for apparent reasons. People, goods and transports connected with assistance to the fighting Ukraine pass through them. Disturbing their work besides affects citizens' safety, trade and the state's ability to control its own territory. Russian force does not gotta take the form of an open military attack. Sabotaging, disinformation and actions carried out by intermediaries let Moscow to origin losses, fuel chaos and check the state's response.
The Prime Minister recalled a Russian attack on the Ukrainian part of the Tudora-Starokozacze crossing at the border with Moldova. Chisinau considered the hit to be deliberate and rejected Russian claims about alleged arms transport from Moldova to Ukraine. This case shows the mechanism: the blow to border infrastructure is linked to an information message to justify aggression.
Moscow investigates the resilience of NATO states
In late August Ratcliffe spoke in Moscow with the head of the Russian abroad Intelligence Service Sergei Naryszkin and manager of the national safety Service Alexander Bortnikov. CIA contact channel with Russian services is not proof of relaxation. In conditions of acute confrontation, it besides serves to admit the intentions of the opponent and reduce the hazard of uncontrolled escalation.
Poland cannot build safety on the very assurances of allies. Intelligence information is needed, but the state's resilience is determined by its own capabilities: counterintelligence, railway and energy security, border crossings security, fast communication with citizens and the smooth pursuit of abroad operations contractors. Any gap will be exploited.
NATO's credibility is besides at stake. Russia has been checking for years where declarations end, and it is starting to be real readiness to act. NATO Article 5 investigating Screenplay it doesn't gotta start with tank columns. It can start with a series of incidents that are hard to show rapidly and the political effect is immediate.
The state is to act, not manage fear
The Prime Minister's informing should be taken seriously, but equally seriously the government's actions must be assessed. The press conference won't safe the border and defend the strategical plant. Measurable decisions, work exercises, backup operating procedures and honest information for a society that does not uncover secrets but leaves no area for gossip.
Russian provocation usually has 2 objectives: to do harm and to disrupt the community that fell victim to it. The Polish answer must be tough, calm and sovereign. The alliance from the USA strengthens our security, but no 1 from Warsaw will take work for Polish borders. It is the state's primary work to its own people.
