Jaws: 50 years later

The oil embargo from half a century ago has suffered an unsurpassed stigma in today’s world. A change of power has begun between Western countries and natural materials exporters. Europe has paid dearly for both crises. It is instructive to compare with today's situation.

On October 6, 1973, the War of the Judicial Day (Yom Kippur) began with the Syrian and Egyptian attacks on Israel. For the 4th time, the arabian army had armedly attacked the State of Israel, created from nothing by the British a 4th of a century earlier in the “everlasting” arabian territory. On 7 October 2023, insurgents from the world's largest concentration camp after the open sky brutally attacked the atomic power.

Militaryly arabian states lost that war very quickly, Israel after the first disasters, was powered by American military aid and proved much more efficient than the arabian armies. The Ukraine attacked by Russia despite the aid of the full West cannot cope.

The 1973 war did not erupt due to oil, but Saudi Arabia was prepared to usage oil weapons as a tool of force on Israel and America. The Saudis repeatedly warned the White home before October 1973 of its usage of weapons. president Nixon didn't take that threat seriously.

The oil embargo lasted much longer than the fights until March of the following year. And advanced oil prices have already become a lasting accomplishment for its producers, ending the era of oil colonialism. The long-wave effect of advanced prices was a nightmare, especially Europe was painfully convinced that dependence on deliveries guaranteed by Washington could origin a long-term recession. Like today, the shock of advanced gas and energy prices puts the European manufacture on the shoulders.

The 1973 crisis reinforced European desire to buy oil and gas from the russian Union. It happened that gas from the east began to flow to Europe on 1 October 1973 at 13.15, a fewer days before the War of the Court Day. However, this long-standing affair was considered by America to be a husband and brutally interrupted last year. Europe besides pays dearly for this divorce.

Arab countries were politically dominated first by Britain and France, later by the US, their oil companies had a monopolistic position there, extracting and exporting oil, whose low price (then $2 per barrel – $20 at today's prices) was of extraordinary benefit to the industrially developed West. His prosperity – from America to Japan – was based on black gold from arabian deserts. Similarly, Europe, which has enjoyed inexpensive energy resources for decades (petroleum, natural gas, coal) from Russia, based on the competitiveness of its industry.

The 1973 crisis undermined Western's very strong position towards oil producers, mainly arabian countries, but besides Venezuela (then it produced half as much oil as the Saudis). The crisis of 2022 destroyed Europe's very strong position as the largest recipient of Russian natural materials, which it bought at low prices and on politically imposed conditions.

The arabian embargo lasted only 5 months. Today's western ban on imports of Russian oil and the informal embargo on natural gas has been going on much longer and is not expected to be lifted due to the fact that they are effectively supervised from Washington.

Except last year was precisely the other of 1973. It was the recipients who utilized the embargo. erstwhile the producers cut off the supply in 1973 (with this image of the twisted Russian cock we were frightened for many years), in 2022 the western customers utilized energy weapons. It was the United States and Europe who boycotted the acquisition of Russian natural materials, trying to force another countries to do so. Energy turned out to be the weapon of the audience. Is it effective? More like a shot at your own European knee.

As in 1973, and now in Ukraine or in the uprising of Palestinians in Gaza, arms supply and financing of the parties to the conflict play a key role. A week after the start of the Yom Kippur War, Israel received its first arms supply as part of Operation Nickel Grass. likewise today, both in Israel, where the West supports the judaic state and in Ukraine, which without western money or weapons would not last even a week of devastating war with Russia.

Andrzej Szczęsniak

Think Poland, No. 43-44 (22-29.10.2023)