Jęczniak: Energy distribution

Donald Trump is simply a very grateful subject for an analyst, due to the fact that he teaches “coffee on the bench”.

Most crucial things happen in the crucuary, circular words go public, so to figure out what it truly is, you gotta carefully analyse facts, draw conclusions that are not publically welcome... And this is Donald hitting consecutive to the point. He openly writes: “I told the European Union that they should usage their powerful deficit against the United States for the large purchases of our oil and gas. Otherwise, there will be customs and all of it!!”

Donald Trump has experience in handling Europe with customs tariffs. In 2018, he imposed duties on EU steel and aluminium. But possibly he would have worn and much bigger if he hadn't forced the purchases of American LNG from Europe, fiercely opposing the construction of Nord Stream. And he achieved his goals – Jean-Claude Juncker in the Rose Garden of the White home declared: "The EU will build more LNG terminals from the US", and president Trump triumphantly added: "Europe wants to import more LNG from the States and will be a big, very large recipient. We will make it easier for them, and they will be a powerful LNG merchant.”

Trump knows business and knows very well that LNG is not competitive for Europe. He said himself: “We will sale LNG and we will compete successfully with pipelines, although they have a local advantage.” How did he do that? Following the spectacular humiliation of the EU leaders at the Brussels summit, he explained: “We have long discussed and Germany has promised to improve”.

At the time Brussels had a narrow space of autonomy. Today, on the 1 hand, it is being blackmailed by duties, on the another hand, being punished with sanctions for being besides slow to cut off from Russia. Whether it's sanctions on LNG, on payments for gas or atom, or on request from a tiny Serbia to break its energy ties with Russia under threat of sanctions... All of this is akin to being pushed by a policeman with his knee to the ground lying in the economical revolutions of Europe.

The Brussels elites have been through this torture. Therefore, the very thought of the repetition lies on their backs and wave all their legs as a sign of surrender. And although it is to keep the image among voters (and I am sorry, I have forgotten that the Brussels elites do not come from the elections) that there are declarations about any "more sovereign Europe", but no 1 takes it seriously anymore. After the full disaster of the concept of “strategic autonomy” it can only be a laughter erstwhile repeating specified slogans.

Therefore, in order to avoid repeated torture and prejudging Donald Trump's anger, Ursula von der Leyen proposed to completely abandon Russian gas and buy more allied LNG. She even said that he was cheaper. Of course, that's not true. Both Draghi's study stands like a bull that American allied deliveries were half as costly as pipeline deliveries in 2022. Germany besides states that in their effort to replace Russian oil for Schwedt refinery, they paid for American oil by a 3rd more expensive.

But they must be forgiven for these insignificant inaccuracies. Ronald Reagan in 1982 described European leaders as “feared chickens”, fearing his own shadow. And today, EU politicians are the shadow of the leaders of the class at the time, like Margaret Thatcher and Helmut Kohl.

Is this fear justified? Donald Trump imposed a akin economical contribution on the Chinese 5 years ago. Unceremoniously and publicly, he demanded that they buy $200 billion extra goods from the States. This was a powerful amount, as it had previously not exceeded 150 billion. circumstantial products were identified and the Chinese were ordered to sign the undertaking. Then the applicable institutes examined the implementation on an ongoing basis. That's how we know that the Chinese have completely ignored their commitment. Imports from the US did not increase, remaining at 150 billion. Nothing happened to them.

That is why I utilized the word "contribution" in the title. Its meaning present may not be clear, is not very frequently used. This concept, since the Roman Empire, has meant a tribute, which the state has given to a victorious state defeated. It besides means a charge for withdrawing from the siege or for failing to engage in territorial aggression, which fits very well with the blackmail that the American President-elect used.

And although the losers in the last planet war were the Axis States, America will whip Europe with contributions. possibly it's like Viktor Orbán warns that NATO members are not allies, but "constituents"?

Andrzej Szczęsniak

photo of wikipedia

Think Poland, No. 1-2 (5-12.01.2025)