Syrian tyrant returns to the salons

Ruins of Aleppo
Source: Screenshot, YouTube

On May 7, a diplomatic breakthrough occurred in the mediate East. The arabian League decided to reconstruct full membership of Syria, suspended in associate rights after the outbreak of the 2011 civilian War. The dictator of Syria, Bashar Al-Assad, met on 19 May, during the League Summit, with supporters of opposition to his rule. How did his government last the war of more than a decade? What led to a change in the course of arabian states towards Syria? Is the civilian war there at an end?

For 12 years the civilian war has turned Syria into a sea of rubble. Hundreds of thousands of people died and respective million were forced to flee the country. During the fight against numerous, frequently rival rebel groups, Bashar Al-Assad's government committed many crimes, including massacres, housing bombings, and the usage of chemical weapons. The chaos in Syria and neighbouring Iraq led to the establishment and dramatic expansion of the muslim State, the most powerful and cruel jihadist terrorist organization in history.

At that time, the Assad government was isolated internationally. Western states under the leadership of the US imposed severe sanctions on Syria, and most arabian states financially supported the armed troops of the Syrian opposition. In 2014, many experts thought the opposition was able to win the civilian War. The Russian intervention started a year later in conjunction with material and armed support for the government from Iran and Hezbollah, a powerful Shiite militia, exerting a powerful influence on the interior policy of neighbouring Lebanon. It has not only led to the rescue of the government of Assad, but even to the reversal of the destiny of the war and the demolition of most rebel fortresses, including Aleppo, the largest city of Syria.

However, the regime's military triumph did not end the civilian war. Syria's northwest border with Turkey is supervised by rebels, now mostly controlled and supported by Turkey. In the north-east, the crucial areas of the country are controlled by Kurdish forces who deserved to have fought an global coalition against the muslim State. afraid by the strong Kurdish influence on its border, Turkey has already conducted respective military campaigns against the Syrian Kurds during the Syrian civilian War. The desert areas of east Syria are now mostly governed by the regime. Only a fewer years ago, however, they were a bastion of the muslim State, and many countries, including the US, fear that this terrorist organization could usage Syria and Iraq as a base for its actions in the future.

Syria is simply a strategically placed victim of the government and a large policy
Source: pixabay.com

Bashar Al-Assad remained in power thanks to the support of Russian and Iranian allies, but his country is ruined economically, and the fact that millions of Syrians are outside the state's borders and that sanctions have been maintained further limits his economical potential. For this reason, mass production of captagon, a drug akin to amphetamine, has developed in Syria controlled by the regime. Many countries, including the United Kingdom, the United States of America and Jordan, fishy the Syrian government to be actively active in the production and trafficking of this drug in order to finance repression and armed action.

The global situation of the Syrian dictatorship deteriorated importantly the erstwhile year. Russia, the regime's erstwhile protector, began an invasion of Ukraine and active most of its armed forces there. Iran was shaken by protests after the death of Mahsa Amini, and in a crisis-stricken Lebanon began openly questioning the position of Hezbollah as a state-specific state in the state. However, Al-Assad besides managed to last these difficulties. The Iranian government suppressed protests and restored diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia in March, which was recognised by experts as a revolution in the mediate East diplomacy.

The consequence of normalising relations with Iran was the drive of Saudi Arabia and another arabian countries to reconstruct diplomatic relations with Syria. Exceptions are Kuwait, Morocco and Qatar, but their leaders, under force from another arabian countries, agreed not to veto the arabian League's decision to reinstate Syria's full membership. The arabian States are counting on them to reduce their dependence on Iran by bringing Syria back to their midst, to fight captagon trade and to bring Syrian refugees back to their homeland. These issues were raised in the Kuluaras of the League Summit in the town of Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.

However, there are many problems that the good will of arabian League members cannot solve. The first is the reluctance of the government in Damascus to compromise with its partners. The reluctance to accept its own citizens, primarily from Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey, whose government recognises as traitors, is peculiarly cumbersome. Al-Assad is besides not willing to end the civilian war. Any peace initiatives to date have failed due to the persistence of the regime. The situation in Syria complicates Recep Erdoğan's election triumph in Turkey, which may mean the continuation of Turkish military policy to combat the national aspirations of Syrian Kurds. Erdoğan's plan to settle Syrian refugees in the Kurdish border of Syria and Turkey so far can besides be implemented in order to change the cultural makeup of the population of the area. Israel's raids on Iran's and Hezbollah's military installations in areas controlled by the government do not halt either. Everything indicates that the way to peace and reconstruction in Syria is inactive far away.

Oskar KMAK