Ahmad asz-Shara, the fresh Syrian leader and erstwhile al-Qaeda supporter, wants to teardrop his war-torn country out of isolation. Source: Wikimedia Commons. licence – Open Government licence – Oman 1.0. Written by – abroad Ministry of OmanAfter 53 years of regulation of the Asad family, Syria freed itself from dictatorship. A government created by Hafiz Al-Assad in 1970 and continued by his boy Bashar after 2000 was overthrown by the rebels. The country has been in a violent civilian war over the last 13 years, in which hundreds of thousands of people have died, and millions of Syrians have been forced to flee their homeland. present Syria stands at the threshold of a fresh era – full of challenges, but besides hope for freedom and peace that generations have fought for.
The collapse of the Assad government has importantly affected the already unstable geopolitics of the mediate East. On the 1 hand, this may weaken the influence of Iran and Russia in the region that supported Assad for many years. On the another hand, destabilisation in Syria can make a vacuum that they will want to fill spiritual and national groups with different visions of the fresh Syria. Their cooperation in building a fresh government can be decisive for the future of the country. The collapse of Assad may besides affect the common relations of the countries of the mediate East, which are presently facing many interior and external crises.
The revolution in Syria raises a fundamental question about the future of any spiritual minorities, which for decades have been under the protection of the Assad regime, peculiarly the alawites, from which the ruling household originated. In the face of change, any cultural and spiritual minorities may feel threatened in a new, possibly Sunni dominated political system. Dr. Marcin Styszyński, experienced expert on the mediate East, who served as 2nd Secretary at the Polish Embassy in Egypt from 2009 to 2018, Deputy Consul in Algeria, Mali and Burkina Faso, and 1st Secretary and Consul of the Republic of Poland in Saudi Arabia, Yemen and Oman in its analysis points to key aspects of tensions arising from belonging to different social groups. "National and spiritual issues in the mediate East region are highly complex. Among the minorities that play a crucial function in shaping Syrian politics are Druzes, Allavites, Sunni, Shiite, and Christians surviving in the settlement of Maaloula, in which Assyrian language, known as the language of Christ, is used. All groups prosecute their political plans, but relations between spiritual and cultural minorities are inextricably linked to the situation in the region," the expert emphasises. If the process of democratisation does not take their interests into account, there is simply a hazard of escalation of tensions between spiritual communities.
The dawn of freedom?
The fall of Assad gives Syria an chance to change course completely – building a state based on equality, human rights and democratic values. However, much depends on the ability of the fresh authorities to supply justice for the victims of war and to make a fair settlement with the past. past shows that attempts to introduce political change in the mediate East countries have not always been successful, and the collapse of the existing regimes has not led to lasting stableness or implementation of the demands of an agitated society. It is crucial that Syria, 1 of the oldest centres of civilization, was already a gathering place of different cultures and religions in ancient times, which emphasizes the importance of developing cooperation between cultural and spiritual groups besides today. "The image of arabian diplomacy required reforms, which can be compared to the alleged zero option utilized in Cambodia – which implies a complete exchange of diplomatic staff and engagement to build fresh structures of the state of young people, free from the influences of the old system," explains Dr. Styszyński, referring to events from the arabian Spring, which was to bring the desired changes in the region. Revolutionary enthusiasm gave way to political realities and external influences. If basic foundations can be created for a diverse society, Syria can become an example of transformation for the full region.
Country of the militias at the crossroads
The overthrow of Bashar Al-Assad's government affected the balance of forces in the mediate East. Iran, who was Assad's main ally, has lost its strategical hubs in Syria, weakening its influence in the region. In turn Turkey assembled its military forces along the border with Syria in order to possibly invade territories controlled by the Kurds. – Procurdian groups, including Syrian Democratic Forces, played a key function in the 2016–2017 fight against ISIS. Despite their successes, their actions were against Turkish policy, leading to conflicts, especially in border areas, in the area of the city of Al-Hasaka. Kurdish groups search autonomy and autonomy, which is part of the broader context of the erosion of institutions in arabian countries after the collapse of regimes," explains Dr. Styszyński. stableness in Syria can reduce the threat from armed groups specified as Hezbollah, but political uncertainty and possible information chaos can make fresh safety threats in the region. "In Syria, the fresh power faced problems arising from the activities of various terrorist groups, specified as Nusra, having connections with Al-Qaeda. The fresh Syrian leader, Ahmad asz-Szar, hoped to remove any organizations from the list of terrorist groups, which was the subject of an increased discussion, adds the expert.
No substance how Syria's future unfolds, 1 thing is certain: the reconstruction process will not be easy or rapid. According to the planet Bank, Syria's GDP, which amounted to US$60 billion in 2010, fell to US$39,5 billion in 2023, and forecasts indicate that in 2024 it would only scope US$29.3 billion, which represents more than half of what was before the war broke out. Humanitarian aid and abroad investment will besides be crucial, but these alone may not be adequate to reconstruct the State's economical stability. Syria will gotta face the challenges of state governance and the pressures of political, cultural and spiritual groups. The future is uncertain, with possible further struggles for influence, especially between Turkey, Iran, Russia and the US, and the hazard of escalation in the conflict zones of the mediate East states. "Israel is taking action to cross the buffer region at Golan Hills, which is simply a challenge for the fresh Syrian authorities, as any of these areas have already been occupied by Israel. The Israeli authorities explain their actions with the request to defend borders, but this further weakens Syria. The Israeli side is carrying out bombings of strategical Syrian facilities, arguing that they are aimed at preventing the entry of weapons into the incorrect hands, as Dr. Styszyński explains, the complex situation of the mediate East shows how hard it is to build fresh structures in places where state institutions were previously centralised and controlled by regimes," concludes the expert.
Syria, although yet able to accomplish any form of stabilisation, remains at a crossroads, and further political changes in this country may have far-reaching consequences for the mediate East and the world. As external observers, we can only hope that the Syrians will yet experience freedom and peace. It is now more crucial than always that we do not forget Syria.
Veronica STRAIN
