In the second part of the conversation with Maciej I had to analyse the global context of events in Georgia. Despite continuous, over 300-day protests, Georgia seems to vanish from the global news scene and is ignored by the planet media.
The expert will explain whether this is simply a geopolitical marginalization, which has consequences for NATO, east flank and Poland, and why Georgian Dreams cooled relations with the West. We will besides examine how the government uses disinformation tools in line with Kremlin propaganda – threatening the “global war party” and defending “conservative values” – to strengthen power.
Finally, Maciej Must present his forecast: what Georgia is waiting for next – whether it drifts towards authoritarianism like Azerbaijan and whether there is inactive a chance to return to accession talks with the European Union.
Veronica Barankevy: Protests in Georgia have been going on for over 300 days, yet Georgia seems to be disappearing from the global news and media scene. Can we talk about the deliberate geopolitical marginalisation of this country? What factors contribute to the decline of Georgia's global interest, and what, apart from the opposition itself, could counteract this?
Maciej had to: Yes, you're right, it's a large observation. Georgia's marginalization is, I would say, two-track.
On the 1 hand, marginalisation in the world, for example from a political point of view, is carried out through the Georgian Dream Government. I do not know if this government has any long-term thought of how it will want to make abroad policy. In the present form, which Georgian Dreams represent and how they conduct dialog with Western partners, including Brussels, we can see that there is no climate to open up any talks or proceed any hope of Georgia becoming a associate of the European Union in the close future. Therefore, Georgian Dreams have led to a very strong cooling of relations with Western countries, including the members of the European Union and Brussels itself. He has a truly affirmative relation only with Hungary and Slovakia, and he may besides be looking for allies in the Czech Republic, congratulating the triumph on the fresh forces in Czech politics. For the present moment, Bratislava and Budapest are the main allies of Georgia in the European Union.
The second point: as far as the West is concerned, relations with the United States are completely marginalised. A strategical partnership between the 2 countries has been suspended. Letters sent by Georgian officials to president Donald Trump's administration are simply ignored. The American administration doesn't truly care what happens in Georgia. Interestingly, the administration is much more focused on the Armenian-Azerbian war, and the Georgian case simply does not interest them. There are American Senators, specified as Joe Wilson, who pushes the thesis that Georgian Dreams are pro-Russian, pro-Chinese and pro-Iran governments. This is an effort to play those notes that are expected to hit American politics, indicating that they are forces against Washington. But Georgia doesn't care much about America.
This political isolation with Western countries shows that Georgia must search its place in the world. Russia cannot reconstruct diplomatic relations, as Russia formally occupies 20% of Georgia's territory, recognising quasi-separatist republics: Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
At the present moment, there is besides no question of Georgia joining, for example, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, or of beginning up to a political partnership with China due to the fact that this cooperation between Beijing and Tbilisi is more dependent on financial investment. At present, they are not realized in a diametric way. any projects, specified as the port in Anaklia, which is crucial for planet trade under the alleged Central Corridor, are frozen for the present moment.
So, yes, the political isolation of Georgian Dream is simply a fact. It is hard to see that Georgian Dreams have very strong cooperation with certain countries, due to the fact that it is quarreled with the West, with Russia it cannot reconstruct diplomatic relations due to the geopolitical situation in the region, and China is not a dream partner for Georgia.
The second point you raised is whether the situation in Georgia is ignored by the planet media or European media, including Polish media? I think so.
If we wanted to find anything in Polish media about local elections, there was virtually no specified information. erstwhile I followed the Polish media during the protest on October 4 and checked whether any portal wrote about the beginning of protests, practically nobody mentioned it in the evening. The Polish public focused more attention on elections in the Czech Republic or the demolition of the monument of John Paul II in Rome. This was of more interest to Polish press and media agencies. It was only this morning that you could read anything about it. They dominated the lids on protests and clashes with the police.
Unfortunately, the South Caucasus is not the most crucial region in the planet for an average observer, but besides for major global players. I am of course curious in this region, but I am aware that the South Caucasus is only curious in the media erstwhile there are to be any groundbreaking elections or riots. For example, a year ago, erstwhile the elections were held, everyone wanted to know something about them – in the end everyone claimed they were groundbreaking! But now practically no 1 is curious in exposing these locals. The decline in Georgia's interest became huge.
However, in my opinion, a greater concentration of media towards the Caucasus has recognised the issue of Armenia and Azerbaijan, and the hypothetical standardisation of these relations.
For Georgian Dream, this situation, erstwhile the media are little focused on Georgia, is comfortable. An disproportionately smaller critic falls to the ruling camp. However, this is problematic for the opposition. That is why she advertised the protests with the slogan “all eyes on Georgia”.
Indeed, even my Georgian friends, who do not usage social networks all day, abruptly activated that day. There was a very large mobilization, both among localities and emigration.
In fact, the issue that affected this was that the Georgian authorities did not let unfavorable journalists, mainly from Western countries. any of them could only enter the country after paying a ticket fee, even for blocking Rustabel's main avenue. These people reported protests, so for the authorities they were uncomfortable, and being among the demonstrators they formally blocked the road. The amount of specified a mandate is presently 5000 lari (about PLN 6700). Helpful in establishing their identities were Chinese cameras, massed in downtown Tbilisi. These are able to identify individual in their face, and on this basis the authorities are punishing them financially.
In conclusion, Georgia is isolated internationally. Although the Georgian authorities participate in individual initiatives, specified as the European Political Community summit, Prime Minister Kobachiga was not the object of most leaders' interest. On the another hand, the opposition is marginalized in a sense. The Russian-Ukrainian war has concentrated more observers, and the South Caucasus has late been interested, but in the context of the Armenian-Azerbyjan peace agreement concluded in Washington.
VB: Let me put the thesis that with specified a tiny presence in the media, it is harder for average readers to separate between fact and misinformation. If there are fewer articles, it is impossible to compare them and find where the fact lies. In my opinion, there is simply a greater threat of Russian misinformation. Do you agree with this thesis, and could you delight tell our readers what Russian misinformation in Georgia looks like? What narratives are being used, and did you feel that erstwhile you were in Georgia?
MM: Yes, Russian misinformation and propaganda implemented in Georgia is simply a very long subject, but I will effort to present the most crucial points.
It should be stressed that there has been an analogy in how the Georgian government of Dream and Russian propaganda operates after Russian aggression against Ukraine. Since February 2022, Georgian Dreams have been openly restricting opposition parties, 3rd sector organizations, or independent media. Interestingly, at the same time Georgia took any affirmative steps towards Russia.
For example, the Georgian authorities welcomed the resuming of flights between Georgia and Russia, recognising this as a affirmative step, primarily for financial and interior reasons. The aim is to facilitate communication between Georgians working in Russia or having a household there, as well as the benefits of tourism. The authorities claimed that the money left by Russian tourists fueled the Georgian economy. The 3rd issue is that Georgia, alongside Armenia and Azerbaijan, helps to circumvent Western sanctions against Russia.
One can see a stronger openness of the authorities to Russia, while the problem is with what this results from. any people would say that this is due to fear of Russia and possible repression (e.g. embargo on individual products). We know that Russia in the past utilized an embargo on grain or did not want to buy Georgian wine, which is the largest importer (more than 2⁄3 wines are placed on the shelves of Russian stores). 1 might say that on the 1 hand it is fear, and on the another hand, it is conformism: “If we as a government are able to gain on the current situation, we have problems.” No substance what, it cooled down the relation between Kiev and Tbilisi. Georgia has in the past treated these relations in partnership, but this changed the attitude towards erstwhile president Mikhail Saakashvili or the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Kiev even imposed individual sanctions on representatives of Georgian authorities.
As far as propaganda is concerned, I would combine it with the tactics the government takes.
Firstly, the government is constantly talking about the alleged global war party. It is simply a construction created by Georgian Dreams. According to this narrative, the global war organization seeks to open a second front aimed at Russia and wants Georgia to join the war, as did Ukraine. Georgian Dreams, especially in last year's elections, manifested this explanation through posters on which you could see a message saying more or less: "If you, Georgians, choose the opposition option, then you support the global war organization and you will have images like in Ukraine." For example, the destroyed Theatre in Mariupol was presented. Across the street was the Tbilisi Main Theatre. In the first photo, the numbers of the electoral lists of the main opposition forces were glued, and in the second 1 assigned to Georgian Dream.
Figure 1: Dychotomia “War vs. Peace” on Georgian Dream posters
Source: Facebook, OC Media
The government said directly: “If you choose the opposition supported by the West, you choose war.” “ Do you remember what happened in 2008 erstwhile the Russian Army entered? If you do not want to repeat this scenario, choose Georgian Dreams, due to the fact that it is simply a government that guarantees stableness and well-being.” Threatening war and promising stableness was the most crucial aspect of this propaganda. This coincides with the position of Russian propaganda, saying that Western politicians only want to drag individual countries into war with Russia.
The second point is, of course, the communicative in which Russia appears as a defender of conservative values. Russia fights homosexuality, the adoption of children by single-sex couples, is simply a front wall before deviating. Orthodox church in Russia protects conventional household values.
The Georgian government of Dreams does the same. It says that Western governments want to introduce degeneration, to destruct identity, church and household values. Georgian Dream says: “We want to enter the European Union, but we will enter as a arrogant nation that will not let us to sale our values. We're not gonna get blackmailed. We will not have a globalist agenda, LGBT movements, single-sex marriages or their adoption of children."
This coincides with pro-Russian propaganda in another EU countries, according to which Russia is simply a defender of conservative values, fighting against the "Western ideology" – that is how we specify movements promoting LGBT+ rights.
The 3rd propaganda dimension, which is not entirely Russian, but draws from Trump's narrative, is simply a deep state theme. Georgian Dream speaks very frequently of the "Georgian Deep State" which wants to destruct their governments from the inside, as well as the "EU Deep State" in Brussels, who hates Georgia and Georgian Dream. The authorities say that bad relations with the Union consequence from any Brussels deep state lying about Georgian Dream and wanting to destruct them. Even erstwhile Trump ignored letters from the Georgian authorities, they stated that the "ugliest deep state" in the Trump administration does not let cooperation with Georgian Dream.
It is evident that this Russian propaganda and communicative of Georgian Dreams are converging in the following issues: 1st wars (globalists want to draw Georgia into war, bring it down) and 2nd conservative values (the request to defend against Western deviations).
Georgian Dream has been moving laws for years to limit the activities of organizations representing the rights of non-heteronormatives. This is very perfidious, due to the fact that in government aimed at these people very frequently equales homosexuality with, for example, incest. The bill states that LGBT ideology and incest cannot be promoted, which aims to detest these people and align the attitude that is unacceptable in society, with the fact that 2 adults want to live in a formalized relationship.
The 3rd issue, which is this Deep State, is besides frequently manifested in Georgian propaganda. It is supported from Western countries and seeks to overthrow the government. It is worth noting that Prime Minister Kobachiga said explicitly that Brussels did not condemn aggressive speeches during the protests of 4/5 October, but defended them and even inspired them. Kobachiga was “disgusted” and considered it a scandal. The number-one enemy on the abroad phase is the Ambassador of the European Union to Georgia, Mr Paweł Herczyński, who is constantly being said to be moving protests and would like to overthrow the government through the street.
Three propaganda issues are therefore: the second front, conservative values and the deep state.
As for Russian propaganda – she always enjoys what Georgian Dream does. For example, erstwhile the protests on the night of October 4 and 5 were pacified, the Russian propaganda group congratulated Georgian Dream, claiming that it was possible to avoid Majdan, that the government cared for the citizens and thwarted the coup organized by the European Union. Alexander Dugin besides congratulated Georgian Dream on winning last year's elections, saying that conventional values prevailed and the globalists lost.
Russian propaganda enjoys the attitude of Georgian Dream. I would not make a calculus that this is simply a totally Russian government that has no free will – it would be besides simplistic. Of course, Georgia is kindly neutral towards Russia due to the fact that it earns by circumventing sanctions and economical cooperation. On the another hand, these actions are in the hands of the Kremlin, and Russian propaganda strengthens and helps Georgian Dream. A akin communicative – about defending against globalists and defeating the coup – is besides repeated by Eurosceptic politicians from the European Parliament.
It is simply a terrible conformism on the part of power, especially erstwhile Russia invades a country with which Georgia has so many kind emotions (in Tbilisi there are murals everywhere and flags solidarity with Ukraine). For a large number of civilian society, this attitude of power towards Russia is incomprehensible.
Is this due to fear, or due to conformism, and due to the fact that cooperation with Russia is good for them? I think it's more conformism than actual fear. But in society, this fear is present and specified propaganda can have susceptible ground, due to the fact that Georgians fear war. All these propaganda aspects are alive, but the most escalated is the question of war and fear.
VB: How do you measure the geopolitical and strategical importance of the Georgian Dream triumph for NATO countries, the east flank of the Alliance and for Poland?
MM: Let me put it this way – that hypothetically Georgia would proceed to advancement in neutral political doctrine, not advocating straight behind the West and not being a NATO member, this does not mean a full disaster for the North Atlantic Pact. Let us not hide: has the absence of these countries in NATO posed an existential threat to Poland or the Alliance over fresh years? Nope. The South Caucasus is not the most crucial theatre for Western countries.
The current situation is powerfully affected by the deficiency of a long-term and consistent strategy for the region. Why do I think that? Western authorities concentrated on the South Caucasus again only after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. abruptly it turned out that Georgia did not full adhere to democratic standards and began to favour Russia. The West abruptly besides remembered the Armenian-Azerbian War. Looking at the actions of the past, the issue of the Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict was practically put under Russian arbitration. Russia stopped the second installment of the war in 2020, established the ceasefire and consistently maintained the conflict – and thus remained an arbitrator – due to the fact that the West washed its hands.
In this case, the South Caucasus is not the most crucial theatre for the North Atlantic Pact itself.
However, if Europe and the United States, and EU countries, are trying to grow their influences in this region and limit Russian influence, I, as a citizen of the Republic of Poland, welcome this. In my opinion, however, it will not make sense if this drift and this policy does not proceed even after the hypothetical ending of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
If we want to extend NATO influence and safety architecture to the South Caucasus, the policy must be long-term and consistent. At the moment, I can say clearly that there is no specified thing as the east Partnership within the European Union. I have reservations about creating western politics in this region, due to the fact that in creating the east Partnership, we have pushed Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova and the full region of the South Caucasus into 1 bag, treating these countries, erstwhile post-missile countries, equally. This policy must be individualised and more nuanced into circumstantial areas, in this case the South Caucasus.
The hypothetical failure of the South Caucasus does not mean a disaster for NATO safety architecture. Although this region is fascinating to me, I can objectively presume that it is not the most crucial theatre of action for the Western world.
It is surely crucial for us to act in the field of the South Caucasus, due to the fact that we can find aspects that will let us to reduce Russian influence and grow the influence of the Natovian, securing individual regional areas.
For example, it is very crucial that the West, by engaging in the peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan, is able to bring about the signing of the peace treaty. Even if the West loses Georgia, due to the fact that Georgia goes further in the Pro-Russian drift, there is an alternative. This is what Georgia is very afraid of: that erstwhile Armenia and Azerbaijan normalize their relations, and Armenia renews diplomatic relations with Turkey, all infrastructure and energy projects (gas, oil, commercial transport under the Central Corridor) could run through Azerbaijan, Armenia and Turkey.
Therefore, we, as the West, would not gotta trust solely on the acquisition of hydrocarbons from the Azerbaijani side of Georgia. We could safe our economical interests through alternate infrastructure. Then we would not be dependent on Georgia as a hub for these products.
As I have said, this is not a primary theatre for the European Union, but by activating our activities, we are able to limit the Russian sphere of influence. If the South Caucasus were in the western zone, we could devote little resources to stabilisation or peacekeeping missions in the region.
Georgia is very worried that if the relation between Armenia and Azerbaijan supported by the West is normalized, it will be completely isolated from an infrastructure perspective.
Hypothetically, if Georgia had joined NATO, the Black Sea would have been a more “natological pool”. This is the case with the Baltic Sea, where most countries are in NATO, which is simply a immense challenge for Russia. Meanwhile, Russia is expanding its military naval base in unrecognized Abkhazia.
However, limiting Russia's influence in the Black Sea basin does not gotta affect only that Georgia will formally enter NATO. It can be implemented by hypothetically expanding the influence of the Turkish Republic in the South Caucasus. Turkey is very curious in the region due to its strategical partnership with Azerbaijan. If Armenia normalises relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan, Russia will lose leverage: Armenia will not request safety guarantees from Russia or the Russian military base in Giumri.
Georgia will not full enter the Russian sphere of influence or renew diplomatic relations with Russia. Turkey is very keen to safe critical energy infrastructure in Georgia, as hydrocarbons go through Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey.
What the West could do if Georgia had not joined Western structures is to support Georgia based on its safety architecture for partnership with Turkey. This is simply a very crucial thing. Turkish safety guarantees would be the closest alternate to Georgia, which is in conflict with the EU and has 20% of the territory occupied by Russia.
Even if Georgia was lost in a confrontation with Russia, there is inactive a large window on the issues of Armenian-Aserbian relations.
If the West wants to engage in the South Caucasus, it must make a consistent political strategy. In Armenia, there is simply a political awareness and a willingness to engage in the Western world. This must be followed by a long-term, individualised and long-term policy strategy for the region. This cannot be an ad hoc action, but a fight against Russian misinformation, which will end after the end of the war in Ukraine.
Second question: how can the West safe its influence? In my opinion, primarily through capital in this region. The hunger for investment affects all countries of the South Caucasus. In particular, Armenia and Georgia will be happy to make sectors specified as energy, safety and digitalisation.
In conclusion, the South Caucasus is not the most crucial region for NATO, but the West should be active in it. In the case of Armenia, a large deal of opportunities has opened up, so in the context of Georgia we are dealing with a dynamic situation. However, any action must not be short-lived. A long-term strategy is needed. In the past, Armenia was seen as a nearly satellite country for Russia, and Georgia as a western primate. Now Georgia is marked and Armenia is praised. The question is whether this will last forever and whether a consistent EU policy will take into account these shortcomings and be able to counteract them erstwhile they hit their interests.
VB: What are the most likely scenarios for Georgia in the coming months? In part, you said that there is no strong opposition, so it is improbable that power will be overthrown. I would like to ask if you see a script in which the power will put a frost on the conflict, and the protests will simply run out due to the fact that – as you said – they do not have a leader?
MM: I do not like to be a fairy, but for the moment, having the information I have, and seeing what is happening, I believe that the most likely script will be that Georgian Dream will proceed to keep power and will increasingly restrict opposition activities, 3rd sector and independent media.
If this continues, it is likely that these protests may, at any long term, simply vanish or be so completely marginalized that they will have virtually no meaning. This will depend on the moods and mobilization in Georgian society. The attitude of Western countries will besides be important. I'm not hiding – I was skeptical about how long these protests will last, and I'm amazed that people want to go out all day for 300 days.
Figure 2: Learn More: Continuity of Protests in Georgia (Day 317)
Source: Own improvement
At the present moment, however, this will lead towards the authoritarian state, where any independent thought will be strangled. Individual organisations, media or think tanks are increasingly shutting down their own business, as government sanctions prevent them from operating or are incapable to rise funds for further activity, as a large number of these people have lived from funds provided by Western countries.
There is besides a question of what Western countries will have in view of Georgia. The most popular option is to suspend visa-free travel, but this would hit the Georgians themselves, not the authorities. Georgians themselves very much hope that the European Union and Western countries will impose sanctions on those associated with Georgian Dream authorities, but besides on their families. They believe that this should hit the assets of Georgian Dream leaders and their families in order to force the country back on the democratic path.
At the moment, it is not seen that these measures are strong adequate to distract Georgian Dreams from their actions. In my view, the most likely script is that the cooking of the frog will proceed and reduce the work of opposition forces.
I do not see the anticipation of a script in which there will be specified a mass of critical protesters, so immense speeches and paralysis that Georgian Dreams are forced to retreat from unpopular decisions or, moreover, to set out fresh parliamentary elections, conducted with all democratic standards and with the cooperation of global observers. The chance for any political change is very small. This is due to the fact that the opposition has no leader, it is not popular, and the actions of the protesters are chaotic and uncoordinated.
If I'm going to go along with any scenario, I think Georgia will proceed to decision towards the authoritarian state. Georgian Dreams will hold elections involving the licensed opposition, which will legitimise their mandate.
As far as global issues are concerned, I do not see Georgia returning to the accession talks with the European Union as it stands. Georgia's isolation will be deepened. 1 might say that Georgia awaits the Azerbaijan road – a formally neutral country, unrelated to any political bloc, cooperating with regional players. Georgia will be closer to its region.
Georgian Dream's power is unchangeable and I don't see anything on the horizon that could make a difference. The ruling camp is highly consolidated. The opposition can't force anything on him. Peaceful protests will continue, but will not produce any results in the short term.
