Georgia has been in a state of social tension for over 300 days, and the fresh local elections of October 4 have sparked another violent wave of protests across the country. The rulers, Georgian Dreams, managed to keep power while consistently limiting opposition activities and independent media.
What is behind this ruthless power of the apparatus of power, which, as our guest states, "makes a frog" of civilian society? And why does the opposition, despite social mobilization, stay shattered, uncoordinated and incapable to enforce any change?
This is the subject of the first part of the sixth interview in the series "World under voltage". Our guest is Maciej Musi – an analyst at the Russian State investigation Centre dealing with the Caucasus. His investigation focuses mainly on the Armenian-Azerbian conflict and the Caucasus's relations with the Russian Federation. By his education, he is besides co-author of the monograph "The Fall of the Kingdom of Armenia between 363 and 428. Armenia between the Roman Empire and the Sasanid Empire".
Veronica Barankevy: You have late returned from Georgia. In the context of fresh local elections and mass protests, how do you measure the current political temperature and prevailing social sentiments from the position of your visit? What shows that Georgian Dreams maintained full mobilization of the force apparatus and the opposition does not have a coherent action plan?
Maciej had to: Local elections were held in Georgia on October 4. It is worth noting that the 2 strongest opposition forces connected with the post-Sakaashwilovski environment (The Coalition for Change and Unity-Save Georgia) did not join these elections. Moreover, these formations called for a boycott of elections. And part of the opposition, among others. the opposition block Strong Georgia-Lelo and the organization of erstwhile Prime Minister Giorgi Gachari took part. The opposition not only shared on this issue, it has demobilized its own choices. As a result, the ruling Georgian Dreams won without a problem local elections, reaching over 80% of the country's support, which was no surprise.
Why was there even a protest on election day? This was organized by the most crucial opposition forces, which, as I mentioned, boycotted local elections, and which most leaders are in custody for the present moment. Many civilian society organisations have besides joined them. The protest was scheduled to take place at 4:00.
Most of the mass protests to date were peaceful. The October protest after the local election, the opposition advertised with the slogan, "All Eyes on Georgia", and talked about something to be breakthrough. The protest had 2 main messages: a return to the way of European integration and a fresh parliamentary election. This protest was to be even greater than those that have continued continuously for over 300 days. Show that this part of society opposed to Georgian Dream politics is inactive active.
However, I am not amazed at the effect this protest has had. Many people predicted that it would not be a breakthrough. Interestingly, no 1 practically knew what the opposition plan would be for October 4. Many of her representatives opposed the usage of specified violence, but any leaders active in the protest called for the takeover of government buildings. A tiny part of the protesters moved to the presidential palace, even entered its courtyard, but was rapidly rejected by uniformed services.
Georgia's governing Georgian Dreams showed that he is determined not to quit power. There was a full mobilization in the force apparatus, where there was no split. This is evidenced by the aforementioned fast pacification of protesters under the Presidential Palace. Neither did any representatives of the order force go to the opposition side. Furthermore, the majority of the demonstrators went to Parliament on Rustatel Avenue, which showed that the opposition to the present minute has no plan, and its leaders are incapable to manage this annoyance or annoy civilian society. Although a peaceful form of protest finds greater, social approval.
If I were to describe the current political temperature, what happened in general and what the moods are, I would say that after the protests 1 could feel emotions specified as confusion and a low sense of causality. Yes, the opposition is able to carry out peaceful demonstrations and protests regular due to the fact that they have been going on for over 300 days. However, the greater merit, including civilian society representatives, is that Georgia should return to the full democratic track and be able to prosecute pro-Western aspirations.
The protest besides showed large confusion among the opposition and even momentary doubt. Interestingly, the events of October 4 did not lead the opposition to any deeper reflection. Protests continue, but do not bring any crucial changes.
One of the accompanying opposition emotions was surely fear. Her representatives and erstwhile president Salome Zurabishvili said that no 1 was pursuing the confrontation script that day, and the peaceful nature of the protests is the dominant one. Meanwhile, trespassing on the territory of the Presidential Palace gave another pretext for the ruling to increase repression of opposition, 3rd sector organizations and independent media. The rulers could say: “Look, we said that they wanted to overthrow us, that they were aiming for escalation and violence, and that they were carrying out a conspiracy from abroad. We've been talking about this for months or even years, so we were right due to the fact that they just want to overthrow us.”
In conclusion, the opposition is divided, unreflective and lacking a further action plan. However, this situation did not lead to a deficiency of religion in the sense of further protests. Protests continued yesterday and present [day of interview – 07.10.2025] on Rustabel Avenue and most likely next day besides people will go out on the street. People inactive request this catalyst to show that they do not agree with the way in which the Georgian Dreams present themselves.
VB: How do you measure 2 issues: firstly, the consequence and consequence of Georgian Dream to the effort to storm the Presidential Palace and the usage of water cannons? And secondly, how do you view the information that the government accuses the West of interference and that he's the 1 holding the protests? Is that truly the case, or is that just misinformation?
MM: In answering your question, we must make it clear: Georgian Dream's actions are not a fresh reaction to the protests of October 4. The government has been successively implementing a plan to reduce the activities of individual opposition parties, 3rd sector organisations or national media around the beginning of 2023. Of course, these actions have besides taken place in the past, and the spell of bitterness, which was expected to hit the environment unfriendly to the government, was the bill on alleged abroad agents.
I would compare that to the fact that Georgian Dreams have been cooking this proverbial frog all the time. It put this frog in the pot, cooks it, and turns the temperature up all minute – this frog is getting hotter.
You can see that Georgian Dreams drew a very strong lesson in March 2023. At the time, the authorities did not anticipate specified a large escalation of force erstwhile police cars were set on fire. It was a social consequence to the aforementioned abroad Agents Act. The government was scared, due to the fact that not only did the situation in the capital escalate, it was a powerful criticism from the US and the European Union that fell on Georgian Dream, and it was a critical minute erstwhile Georgia had not yet received the position of candidate for European structures. At the time, the repression apparatus was not as prepared for speeches as during Gawrilov Night in 2019.
Figure 1: Get Closer to Gawrilova Night (Tbilisi, June 2019)
Source: Own development
Georgian Dreams have drawn conclusions. Now, if it was to meet the aggressive actions of the protesters – storming government buildings or attacking police – the authorities will surely respond with gas, water cannons and sticks. What I most remember is the message from the Ministry of the Interior of Georgia a fewer days before the October 2024 parliamentary elections, erstwhile the Ministry of Interior said that it had purchased fresh equipment for the order services and that it would not hesitate to usage it if the opposition did not recognise the results of the election.
Potential aggression by protestors gives the rulings an excuse to increase the level of repression against society, opposition and media. To date, the frog has been mainly cooked, but now, with aggression at protests as a pretext, this temperature can be turned “up to the max”.
However, this is not the only argument for the demolition of civilian society. Prime Minister Kobachiga continues to say that by the end of 2025 they will destruct the forces of "liberal fascism". Aggression seems to the ruling only a pretext; Georgian Dreams would inactive search to discredit and limit activities that are not conducive to its environment.
Georgian Dreams can afford all this, because, as I have said many times, the opposition in Georgia is very weak. Georgian Dream's top strength is the weakness of the opposition. People who protest do this due to the fact that they are fighting for a democratic and pro-Western country, not due to the fact that the opposition is telling them to.
However, this creates a problem – protesters are not coordinated in any way. They don't know what to do. Even after pacifying the demonstrators at the Presidential Palace, people stood under Parliament and watched on the net what would happen next. They were looking for information on what was going on. This shows that opposition leaders deficiency strategical thinking. This is the consequence of this disorientation: there is no authorisation for specified large force to take over government buildings, and peaceful demonstrations, though they are daily, do not bring any result. The repressions will be, and this force that was at the protests will be utilized to “speak this proverbial frog faster”. Georgian Dreams will not go back to the way they were going, due to the fact that there is no 1 on the horizon who can halt him. The instruments implemented by the Western countries are besides weak to aid the Georgian opposition.
VB: And this weakness of your opposition, in your opinion, which is the main reason? due to the fact that surely not just due to fear of repression or legal risks. Is there 1 specified charismatic leader missing? What could they do to strengthen themselves?
MM: Oh, and that's the key word. Leader.
A year ago, erstwhile talking to part of the Georgians, they were pleased that parliamentary elections – deciding the future of Georgia in the opinion of the opposition – do not have the dimension of the Maczystowski duel, where there will be a clash, 2 strong men. In the opposition, there was no strong leader she needed to face the government so hard. specified a individual was trying to become the then president of Salome Zurabishvili – from Georgian emigration in France, a diplomat, was the MFA and then the president of Georgia, a note bene chosen with the support of Georgian Dream.. However, it distanced itself from him after the actions which the ruling camp took after Russian aggression against Ukraine, until it yet moved to the opposition camp.
Last year it attempted to consolidate opposition parties under the slogan of the alleged Georgian Charter. Was it an initiative? We are talking about a list of demands signed by all coalition organization leaders and this 1 non-block party, committed to carrying out appropriate administrative and systemic reforms to return Georgia to full democracy. It made her an informal leader.
However, this consolidation of the opposition was carried out only under 1 motto: to remove Georgian Dreams from power. The opposition practically did not focus on any social and economical demands. In fact, Georgians' main problems are social-economic issues: unemployment, wages and pensions, rising prices, it is. Yes, these political issues are slow becoming more important, but Georgia is inactive a mediocre country, and the opposition was acting as if it had not noticed.
Some of my interviewers last year explained this: “It doesn’t substance now. Let's get Georgian Dreams out of power first, and then we'll deal with another problems. In a year, systemic reforms will be carried out, which were presented in the Georgian Charter, and then we will set out fresh elections and improvement the country on another issues."
However, it turned out that this was not the case. The situation was not improved by 1 simple reason: the opposition was only formally united. Imagine that this full coalition, all opposition leaders, failed to agree on who would become Prime Minister in this method government! People were expected to vote for a widely understood opposition, but who was expected to run her government? That's what they were gonna find out after the election. It's a kuriozum! No 1 knows what a government of specified broad opposition looks like either.
Time clearly showed that Salome Zurabishvili proved besides weak to be a leader. The opposition seemed to unite, but only formally. Her speeches could not mobilize much of Georgian society. It does not have a very advanced level of charisma itself. Worse still, she promised to present a further plan of action after the parliamentary elections, but she did not. Finally, she left presidential wages declaring that she “takes power with her”.
On her part there were many symbolic gestures, but besides empty ones, which did not bring anything constructive. It ended with promises. The opposition as it was divided so continues and inactive has no leader. Meanwhile, Georgian Dream has specified a individual – he is the leader of this group Bidzin Ivanishvili. The ruling camp is full consolidated under its informal rudders.
Figure 2: Learn More: Georgian Charter
Source: Development
The breakdown and weakness of the opposition proceed to this day. This is besides due to its construction. The dominant forces are 2 blocks – “Unity-Save Georgia” and “A Coalition for Change”. Both are a collection of parties originating from the organization founded by Micheil Saakashvili – the United National Movement. This organization is now part of the first listed blocks.
The opposition centered last year around the Georgian Charter is not only the postsaakashvilist parties. The 3rd most crucial opposition block is Strong Georgia, which is headed by among othersMamuk Chazaradze. It is simply a character with a very strong negative electorate. By profession, the banker and 1 of the founders of TBC Bank. In the past, accused of participating in evictions and exploitation through their banking products. The 4th most crucial component of this opposition is the Gacharia organization for Georgia led by erstwhile Prime Minister Giorgi Gacharia. However, this 1 is covered with bad fame, even for its contribution to suppressing protests during Gawrilov Night.
And here's another point: people don't trust this opposition. The opposition focused on individual and individual conflicts that prevailed over the creation of any constructive plan. Yes, they did, due to the fact that in 2024 there was an existential problem, but conflicts were inactive alive, as evidenced by the problem with the Prime Minister's election. The opposition even 2 days after the parliamentary elections was incapable to agree whether and erstwhile they are making a demonstration under Parliament. The demonstration was not attended by the Gacharia party.
So we have an image of the opposition in which we have seen the same faces for many years, or they are characters that do not inspire public assurance among the majority of society. Either they have a patch glued to starting a career under the wing of erstwhile president Micheil Saakashvili, or they are associated with predatory exploitation, or they were liable for force against protesters. And this broken opposition has no leader. individual most people could trust. The 3rd road is missing. Armenian society is besides facing a akin problem of deficiency of alternatives. Nevertheless, opponents of the ruling organization vote for opposition due to the fact that they treat it in terms of little evil.
If individual asked me or the average Georgian what the opposition plan was, we said: I don't know. And that's the problem: you go to protest and you don't know strategy. There's no 1 to point out what to do. Georgian Dreams have an excellent situation. If the government maintains consolidation and Western states do not impose more sanctions, they will proceed to rule. At the moment, their power is very strong. With specified opposition there is nothing to fear. 1 can say that we have a real bingo here – a deficiency of unity, a deficiency of leadership and a deficiency of plan. 3 major deficiencies.
VB: If you remember what it looked like in Ukraine erstwhile it was Euromaidan, the protests were very strong. At the same time we saw that the Ukrainian minority, for example in Poland, went to the embassy or consulates. What about the Georgian minority?
MM: These people don't protest all day. I mean, diaspora and Georgian emigration don't go out on the streets of Prague, Frankfurt or Paris all day. However, in the case of large coordinated protest actions, they are besides organised in another cities around the world.
The available information and social media entries indicate that, for example, on October 4 organised events were recorded in many countries. We saw scheduled protests in 4 cities in Italy, in 3 in Australia, as well as speeches in Finland, Sweden, Germany, the United States, the Czech Republic, Austria, Belgium, France, Switzerland and Spain. Although there was no Poland in the first lists, we know that there were marches here too, although they were tiny and not very common.
Such speeches are intended to remind the Western public of the situation in Georgia. They stress that the Georgians are inactive protesting and not giving up. This activity is crucial here, due to the fact that it is the Georgians themselves who must, above all, fight for the future of their country.
Figure 3: List of Georgian Diaspora protests (4-5.10.2025)
Source: Development
VB: And why do you think these protests are smaller? What's the origin of this?
MM: Most of this immigration is of a commercial nature and does not engage heavy in politics. I know members of the Georgian diaspora who are curious in what is happening in the country, but most Georgians, for example in Poland, are behind bread. The visa-free government with the countries of the European Union allows them to do so.
On 4 October, however, I could see an increased activity among friends in social media, and even in protests in another EU countries. In this way, they wanted to express their solidarity with their fellow countrymen and remind another nations that their fight is ongoing. Clearly, this case is crucial to them.
The absolute power of the state apparatus is not the only tool of Georgian Dream to keep power. How does the government deal with global criticism, and how does it usage disinformation to keep society frightened and polarized? In the second part of our conversation, Maciej had to talk about Georgia's marginalization in the planet media and examines how Kremlin propaganda strengthens the communicative of the ruling and weakens Georgia's ties with the West, with peculiar emphasis on the importance of this process for NATO and Poland.
