Support for Rafał Trzaskowski falls. Expert points to “serious errors”

• “Trzaskowski can now lose in the polls, but it is not, I repeat, the direct effect of the debates. due to the fact that whether he goes or not, it doesn't matter," says prof. Chwedoruk
• — The last debate that truly changed something and influenced individual was this Lech Walesa with Alexander Kwasniewski, the 1 with the “legging” she adds.
• “Trzaskovsky’s staff must not be panicked now, and in no case should they start making any sudden, chaotic movements due to these polling declines,” says prof. Chwedoruk
• More specified stories can be found on the Onetu homepage

— If Trzaskowski wanted a debate with Nawrocki, he should not at the last minute agree to a debate with everyone. And the PO candidate's staff could have predicted the revolt of Holownia and Biejat," says prof. Rafał Chwedoruk, a political scientist. “In this debate, staff errors proved serious, decision makers passively reacted to the collapse of staff plans. And they should act: for example, propose in these Horses a 1 in 1 debate with Nawrock, and 2 hours later a debate of everyone. They could have done anything, anything – I stress – done alternatively of going on – indicated.

– However, the declines in support of Trzaskowski, seen in fresh polls, have no bearing on the debates," emphasises prof. Chwedoruk. “It’s just besides early for that,” he says.

In the last poll, conducted by SW investigation for Onetu, nearly 45% of people negatively assessed Trzaskovsky's decision not to go to 2 debates on tv Republic. This was positively assessed by 38 percent of respondents. In the Ipsos poll commissioned by TVP, support for the PO candidate fell by as much as 8%, just after being absent from 2 debates.

In another poll, besides for Onetu, according to 44 percent of the respondents, Trzaskowski did wrong, hiding a rainbow flag in the Konskis during the debate – which was a "present" from Karol Nawrocki – and then giving it to Magdalena Biejat.

— But what else would Trzaskowski do? “ He surely did not make the worst mistake, so he did not get into any serious confrontation with Magdalena Biejat over this flag. due to the fact that it would be terrible, after all, Trzaskowski in the 2nd circular will gotta number on its voters – he emphasizes.

Two problems of the PO candidate. “Mostly the government brings them to him”

“Trzaskowski can now lose in the polls, but it is not, I repeat, the direct effect of the debates. due to the fact that whether he goes to 1 of them or not, it doesn't matter," says prof. Chwedoruk. — He is the strong weakness of his rivals, due to the fact that Nawrocks are the kind of PiS candidate that's hard to defend. against the background of erstwhile presidential candidates of this party. However, the main problems of Trzaskowski are 2 – he points out.

“The first, independent of him, is the situation in which Holovnia and Biejat began their campaigns much later due to the fact that they have little money. And now they are taking part of the vote from Trzaskowski, their parties in the parliamentary elections competed with the PO about akin voters," explains the political scientist.

“The second problem of Trzaskowski, much more serious, is the government,” he points out. — Government reduced the wellness contribution for entrepreneurs And the large city electorate, wealthy, was delighted. But these are not the only PO voters, the support of a richer minority, the large cities themselves, the presidential elections will not be won. Key issue, the PO is next to the Law and Justice Office the strongest organization in the Emerytsk electorate, which this simplification in the contribution may not have been very popular as an impact on the public wellness service," says prof. Chwedoruk.

— Similarly, this case did not like those voters who are attached to the Platform as a stabilisation party, "warm water in the tap". And on them any manipulation at the contribution and, in general, in wellness care – which is simply a very hard subject in the run – may have made a bad impression. Tusk sensed that the social consequence could be just like this, hence his subsequent moves towards the left on economical issues, i.e. Repolonisation of the economy – explains the expert.

"Trzaskowski cannot panic now. Taking immediate, hysterical action would be the way of Komorowski"

— As for the effects of the debates, specified as the erstwhile ones, as for the future, I think they will not be decisive in this campaign. due to the fact that the last debate that truly changed something and affected individual was this Lech Wałęsa with Alexander Kwasniewski, the 1 with the “legging”, says prof. Chwedoruk.

“Trzaskovsky’s staff cannot now be panicked, and in no way should it start making any sudden, chaotic movements due to these polling declines,” she notes. “Because it would be the same mistakes Bronisław Komorowski made erstwhile support began to grow in 2015. Komorowski and his staff began, under the influence of panic in part of the media, to throw, performing ad hoc movements and a disaster just happened – the political scientist concludes.