Conversation with Prof. ANTONIM DUDKI, polytologist at the University of Cardinal Stefan Wyszynski
– The March of the Million Hearts on 1 October repeated the success of the anti-government protest of 4 June. How does that translate to election results? Does it mean that the failure will be borne by the Law and Justice?
– Not really. According to research, respective percent of voters have yet to decide who they will vote for. If the Citizens' Coalition has managed to convince themselves with a tiny part of this group, it will be the undoubted success of Tusk and the full opposition. However, it may turn out that this success will be primarily at the expense of the 3rd Way, which will fall below the electoral threshold – in the case of a coalition of 8 percent. Then Tusk's success will be the defeat of all anti-script opposition. Let us presume hypothetically that after the success of the march on 1 October KO will gain at the expense of the 3rd Way 2 percent, and let another 2 percent undecided. So the Citizens' Coalition with 30% of current support will jump to 34. But that won't win her yet, due to the fact that PiS can score 37 – 38 percent. In practice, this will mean that the opposition will lose, and it will not gain, because, as is known, the method of counting votes in Poland according to the D’Hondt method is predominately for the groups that won the most votes.
– The march was besides expected to show solidarity between KO and women, including Mrs Joanna from Krakow, who took an early-porn tablet and was treated in a certain way, but after a while it turned out that the issue was not so clear, and Mrs Joanna is simply a lost person.
– Even if Mrs. Joanna did not show up with Tusk and no of the organizers intended to advance her as victims of the “written regime”, there will inactive be many examples of women in Poland that can be exposed. That's a smart thought due to the fact that women vote little than men. This is an effort to make large emotions in spirit: we – unlike the ruling “taliban” – care for your rights. Of course, it's not about convincing the old ladies of Podkarpacia, due to the fact that they're going to vote for the Law and Justice, it's about the young ladies.
– I wonder why there are "activists" on the lists of KOs representing the Green Ostra, and Marty Lempart is missing, who has corrupted the Law and Justice in fresh years.
– There is no Lempart, but there is simply a associate of Gajewska, who has been bullied by the police and is now presented as a victim to the “regim”. I think it's an effective method. And for the majority of voters, Tusk, characters like the binary candidate mentioned by you are space and no 1 will exposure it.
“For the Platform, the subject of visas is simply a more bearable subject than women’s rights. And it doesn't substance if the alleged scandal concerns 250 bribes for speeding up visas or $250,000, due to the fact that the election run is governed by its rights. In this case, as in the well-known gag about 2 rabbis, there is simply a rule: the guilty 1 who explains himself.
– For the opposition it was a gift of the heavens, as it struck the very core of a written run that is dominated by the subject of migrants. 2 of the 4 mention questions concern these issues. And everything would have worked out perfectly for the PiS if it wasn't for this visa scandal.
