We request completely different instruments of action and a change in the way people think and prepare for the challenges ahead. I wonder if the elites of the III Republic will be able to meet this task. This question concerns the future of Poland in a new, demanding context.
Jacek Bartosiak
founder and owner of Strategy&Future
There was information, and fundamentally rumors that the United States government had completed the preparation of a strategical defence review. This is my free translation of the name of this interior Pentagon document. It depicts American military resources. As in any good strategy, the aim is to combine the resources available with the desires or objectives that are to be achieved. due to the fact that erstwhile resources are besides small, a farce comes out.
Why is this paper crucial for Poland? Rumor has it that he recommends that the U.S. retreat to the western hemisphery and focus on interior security. What if it were true? That would mean giving up the American primacy. Europe would then be left at least in the offshore balancing formula, i.e. point impact, but without constant, hard presence and safety guarantees. likewise in the Pacific, which would give Eurasia countries greater freedom. Imagine the panic over the Vistula. We were hoping the Americans would defend us, not that we'd gotta do it ourselves. That would be a fundamental change.
However, remember that the paper is inactive in the work phase. It may be redrafted or any recommendations may not get permission. Although it seems that American resources present only let for specified solutions. The full redevelopment of the planet that Trump has been talking about and has been implementing since April, imposing sanctions, penalties on another countries and threatening selective protection, is aimed at maintaining a dollar primacy – this incredible privilege that capital flows to the US and Americans can measure it as they want. In a very simplistic way, it is the only reason why the United States has not yet gone bankrupt and has immense capital surpluses for investments, specified as Silicon Valley. The Americans want to redefine the strategy while maintaining the primacy of the dollar. However, it is “holding the left hand by the right leg”. The square of the wheel, due to the fact that the dollar primate led the American economy to depend on money production at the expense of real production and at the expense of the mediate class – to the elite.
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The planet accepted this arrangement until the Americans strained it and utilized the dollar as a weapon. 1 of the reasons for the BRICS was that the US began to usage the dollar to force global relations. That's the problem. If Americans truly wanted to heal their economy, they would gotta quit dollar primacy. Meanwhile, it causes further social fragmentation and deindustrialisation of key sectors. I don't think they will. Incentives for industrial investments will not solve the structural problem – volumes are besides large. We can see Donald Trump's approach even in relations with India. If Europe has accepted the Trump concessions – as Ursula von der Leyen suggested – these are only temporary solutions. This model cannot be maintained. European societies will not accept this. So the Americans have a serious problem.
If the Pentagon paper is true, we will be certain that the US does not have military resources to warrant security. So there are “scissors” – very dangerous. The hazard of war is increasing. The alleged Kindleberger trap will be revealed: with the weakening of the American force projection, there is simply a safety vacuum – for example in Poland or the full region. The Russians might want to test it, just like the Chinese around Taiwan. At the same time, the credibility of the dollar primate decreases. It is simply a belief that the US will come to the aid of allies, supply weapons, resources, and the dollar will always be available. If more and more countries consider that Americans are manipulating currency, restricting access or prohibiting its usage – as Trump threatened – there will be a powerful safety dilemma and a hazard of breaking the system. It's another square of a circle. erstwhile the U.S. solves this problem, it's a $1 trillion question, and the answer will find the next 50 years of planet history.
What does this mean for Poland? In the negative scenario, it may turn out that the political class of the 3rd Republic of Poland – a country created in the American primacy era and in this functioning paradigm – will not see the consequences. The elite will defend the position quo and their own achievements, not tiny at all. It is simply a natural attitude to deny and pretend that nothing has changed. So we will be stuck in cognitive “freezing” as if the global strategy were inactive the same.
In the affirmative scenario, the elites will see the threat – despite Donald Trump's declaration – and will immediately make a fundamental revision of respective policies. Poland must then play a two-track game against the United States and Europe, maintaining very good contacts with Americans and highlighting the function of a loyal ally, while at the same time strengthening Poland's position in Europe through a declaration of subjectivity and willingness to cooperate. Even the tensions between the president and the government could in this context act crediblely towards allies. At the same time, despite common hostility, political leaders should meet in a closed ellipse and work out a 3rd way – based on close regional cooperation with Sweden, Finland, Ukraine, Romania and possibly Turkey in the future. Only specified a deal could build a power of deterrence and balance towards Russia, especially if NATO and Western allies proved insecure.
Such a situation would force fundamental changes in the policy of the Polish state. Deep military reform, different from the current one, as well as a large improvement of the collection and training strategy for the Polish Army with a change of approach to arms purchases would be necessary. Poland would gotta build its own situational awareness system, carry out a wide deregulation to trigger native capital and entrepreneurship, and make future private arms companies providing fresh technologies on the ground, especially dual applications, which prove decisive in the contemporary battlefield. This would mean little buying in the United States and Western Europe and more regional cooperation – especially with Sweden and Ukraine, which share risks with us. This is the future. We request to prepare for a script where Americans will retreat behind the Atlantic, even in part.
Then Germany will be happy to drop its "American caiden". Europe is likely to step back by giving up its ambition to deepen integration, and Germany will want to regain its sense of strength by limiting itself to 4 marketplace freedoms. In this way, Poland can be disciplined macroeconomicly and orphaned – first by America and later by the European Union. This will absolutely change the attitude of our political elites.
We should change the direction of action as shortly as possible. I mean full deregulation of manufacture and fresh technologies – something like the Wolf Act. Capital investments, not state but private, are key, aimed at a sector freed from bureaucracy, excessive regulation and the impact of services. At the same time, a deep improvement of the Polish Armed Forces is essential in order to transform them into a part of the fresh technology manufacture – in a civil-military merger model – and gradually become independent of the United States. This is where the future should be headed.
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We can besides talk about another aspects, but the key question is: are our elites, who present view themselves as co-creators of the success of the Republic, with its GDP growth, clean streets and renovated cities, able to realize that we are entering a fresh era? We request completely different instruments of action and a change in the way people think and prepare for the challenges ahead. I wonder if the elites of the III Republic will be able to meet this task. This question concerns the future of Poland in a new, demanding context.
