Due to the long-standing and late more frequent media coverage of Roman Giertych and Richard Petr's legislature elections, I feel obliged to callback any crucial facts and any principles that should be apparent and crucial to democrats. crucial facts are stubbornly ignored in public, which threatens another election defeat. Busy with individual emotions, we can't see her coming. On the another hand, we like not to remember what brings about calamity, possibly even worse.
Games and Petru have, of course, the right to run for election. It is 1 of the fundamental rights and must not be forgotten under any circumstances. Whatever to think about the political achievements of these politicians – he exists and brings supporters to each of theirs. Without elections, no of them can be denied a place in politics, including the legislature of the Republic of Poland, without affecting the most crucial content of what we are expected to be fighting for, standing for elections against the Law and Justice, which democracy destroys.
We all know, of course, that the reality of the clash with the Law and Justice is forcing an agreement on democratic environments, even if only tactically and the presentation of a joint candidate in each of the 100 constituency to the Senate. This request can be fulfilled, without prejudice to anyone's political rights – including either passive or active electoral law, and these rights and candidates and voters would be violated if neither Roman Gierty nor Richard Petru obtained “agreement” from the 4 parties and so did not compete.
It is not actual that the only way to agree is through secret negotiations between the leaders of the 4 opposition parties. These parties are besides said to be "main" and among them there are those whose real support is much lower than what, as it seems, would be able to be fought in their own districts by the 2 gentlemen. Public statements about the embarrassing situation caused by their ambitions consistently ignore solutions that should be known, due to the fact that they have been reported for years, and for democrats could and should be natural.
Let us get to know all the challengers from the democratic side in each of the 100 districts, let us have public debates between them, let us organize their public hearings – and on this basis let us show the best. We, or voters represented in any of the many already known and repeatedly proposed ways: from open primaries to which it is unfortunately besides late again; through randomly elected typical civic panels or self-government groups supplemented by representation of NGOs; to a predetermined cycle of polls conducted after debates and another elements of the pre-election run of pretenders. I am amazed that the apparent request of public hearings and at least the transparency of the process of candidate nominations – a minimum condition of specified democratic decency – does not find a delicate ear for media editors defending themselves present with democracy as well. Fingers crossed for opposition parties seemingly forgot what the game was about.
But they forgot more than that. They have besides forgotten the facts of the strategy.
In 2019, the then "Senack Pact" only in a number of districts led to a direct clash between 1 opposition candidate and a candidate of the Law and Justice. In these districts, opposition candidates reported results importantly – on average by nearly 7% – exceeding the amount of votes obtained in the same elections by the forming "Pact" parties in the parliamentary vote. The opposition candidates were much more eager than the PiS, including Confederate voters who did not issue their own candidates to the Senate. In the remainder of the districts, the "third parties" were moving at the time – and the votes were taken not by the Law and Justice, but by the opposition. The failure of parliamentary votes was 18% on average. As a result, in the 2019 election, the opposition lost mandates to the Law and Justice in 10 constituency in which it had an advantage, including 3, in which the advantage exceeded 50%, making it almost a warrant of victory. This year the situation will be highly difficult. We hear about Confederate candidates – this will completely change the bill. Confederates won't get legislature seats, but in many places they will guarantee the triumph of the PiS. The proximity of local elections will consequence in an increase in the number of another contenders who, under specified circumstances, do not number on triumph and a mandate in the Senate, but want to show themselves to strengthen their position in the race for local positions. Finally, the Law and Justice Committee draws conclusions and will surely guarantee that "third parties" are as advanced as possible this time. However, opposition parties have rejected proposals to conclude a legislature pact not in their own group in Warsaw, but in each of the 100 constituency in the group of all pretentious non-PiS environments.
So all the signs show present that the consequence of the legislature election will be despite the decline in the support of the Law and Justice organization much worse than it was in 2019, which means that the legislature will just lose. That's a threat we won't announcement consumed by emotions around Giertych and Petru.
I am, of course, writing this from my own position of the 2019 legislature candidate, who announced the start besides this year – just as I was then demanding a debate of challengers and a democratic indication of the right candidate. While Petru and Gierty are trying to negotiate, no of the negotiators of the "Pact" spoke to me despite many attempts. I didn't make the final decision to take off myself. I know, of course, that my own position clearly means incomparably little present than both of these gentlemen, and this is the consequence of this difference in treatment. However, it is not my situation that is important. The reason I ran that day and announced that present was the right to choose. Critically crucial both for the democratic rule and for the purely strategical success of the electoral clash with the Law and Justice. You can't win in the way we're offered today, a typical organization way.
Paweł Kasprzak
20 July 2023
