The endless war in Ukraine caused strong recognition of Polish political elites with the interests of this country. The more negative the effects of this dogmatized position are revealed, the more the verbalization of hostility and hatred towards Russia and its president grows.
This serves primarily to justify the policy of the so-far stubborn adherence to Ukrainian rations, erstwhile in fact due to the U.S. and respective smaller states, Western solidarity is breaking down in defence of the uniform front of support for Kiev. Public judging Vladimir Putin as a war criminal, it became a ritual of the speeches of the most crucial politicians in the state headed by president Nawrock. As war crimes besides take place in the mediate East, there is simply a bright dissonance between the stigmatisation of the Russian leader and a kind approach to the president of the United States and the Prime Minister of Israel, who besides deserve the name of war criminals. specified an attitude offends one-sided and relativism, not to mention hypocrisy.
Focusing anger exclusively on the Russian leader shows, on the 1 hand, the affective and emotional attitude of Polish politicians, and on the other, the deficiency of any thought of a forward-looking and realistic balance of relations with neighbours. Polish politicians with their principity in Russia's assessments, their fierceness and tenacity, are found in the 19th century doctrine of insurektionism and the inherited communist complex of satellite dependency. Meanwhile, the planet is in a different place!
Polish political reasoning about Russia...
determines the memory of russian dominance and forced “communisation” of the Polish People's Republic. Regardless of the ideological-political orientation, all the ruling crews in the 3rd Republic of Poland have made “memory policy” the main tool of their actions and omissions towards Russia, imposing in the public discourse a moralist language, recalling the “eternal threat” in the form of “imperium” and “barbaric tyranny”. Due to political pressures, the circles of professional Russian experts, experts from Russian history, culture, literature, theatre, movie have been silent. A field was opened for scouts and hounds, useful in fueling tensions and conflicts, declared rusophobes and instigators of war. Was it truly necessary, in order to justify the strategical reorientation towards the West, towards NATO and the European Union, to be credible by full denying the affirmative assessments of the not tiny achievements in relations between both countries and nations?
Poland and Poles have entered the general trends of alienating Russia from the European community. The period after the “cold war” was conducive to the isolation of the east Empire as an existential enemy. The 20th century past of Russia was viewed through the prism of 2 large geopolitical disasters, i.e. the Bolshevik Revolution of 1917 and the dissolution of the USSR in 1991. These events were included in the cycle of her historical interior disasters, leading to a complete break with the West. They were accompanied by the building of a “mural of ignorance” and disregard around Russia, which liberated even in tiny states – as among the Baltics – the hateful desire to play back for historical traumas and defeats.
Polish politicians respond to the explanation of Russia's past by the prism of the largest Russian disasters, due to the fact that thanks to the victorious war against Bolsheviks and the removal of russian curatela The Republic of Poland could regain – at least in imagination – the subject autonomy. Maintaining the image of “Barbarous Russia” nevertheless promotes the creation of empty space on the intellectual map of the east neighbourhood. Empathizing society with hostile propaganda and relying only on biased Ukrainian messages causes Poles to be deliberately unaware of Russia today. You can already see this lamented effects in the media, in political debates and pseudo-scientific studies. We became hostages of ignorance and stupidity on our own request. The rulers deficiency political insight and foresight. Political advice is biased and detached from reality. Polish politicians do not think in terms of their own interests and benefits, and the prevailing logic of harmful Russia has completely paralyzed independent diplomatic initiative.
However, the decomposition of the hegemonic order shows Russia's vital ability to participate in fresh geopolitical constellations that may weaken the collective West. It can make various tensions and co-decision on regional instability in different parts of the world. due to the fact that America, this idealized leader of the West, is compromising itself due to its fresh conquests of imperialistic character, Russia comes in a sukurs threatened by the nations, making it an crucial associate in the competition game. This can be seen, for example, in the finest aid to Israel and the U.S.-attacked Iran, or in the energy support of Cuba.
In the context of the negotiations on Ukraine, the Russians show a remarkable firmness. This provokes the irritation of Western politicians who sympathize with the authorities in Kiev. Russia has found, like Iran in fresh months before Israeli-American aggression, that readiness to compromise on any substance is constantly provoking fresh demands, and a advanced price is paid for naivety and confidence. Equal bargaining is always based on a minimum of common trust and a willingness to talk in good faith. Meanwhile, the U.S. and its Western partners let any makiavelic methods of achieving their goals, including deception, blackmail, and deception.
Especially perficial are targeted attacks on political leaders and military commanders who deny any war customs and global conventions. In the context of what happened in Iran erstwhile Ayatollah's death But Chamenei, members of his household and high-ranking military and power figures have shaken global opinion, all states that are in conflict with the West, including Russia, must be aware of the dangers to their own leaders. Cases of Venezuela and Iran show that protecting national leaders is becoming a task not only of peculiar services, but besides of the armed forces.
Due to the Western civilization crisis, Russia has many assets, according to many observers, to contribute to the cultural renewal of the Old World. beginning of administration Donald Trump for diplomatic dialog with Vladimir Putin, despite opposition from European allies of America, means a extremist revision of the axiological bases and a change in the criteria of belonging to the world's "extraclass". While the United States has one more time taken the initiative in changing the geopolitical map in history, Europe is losing its importance without having any civilizational advantage.
The advantages of Russia
Russia, China, or India, as well as the enraged Iran, are among separate first civilizations and do not submit to Western monoculture. Historical, cultural, spiritual or ideological factors play crucial roles in them in binders and interior consolidation. The paradox is that Europe is closest to Russia from among the mentioned "civilisation states". In spite of their own interests, which was clearly shown by the separate attitude of Hungary and Slovakia, Europeans refused to supply lucrative energy, suffering from anti-Russian sanctions no little than Russia itself. Today, erstwhile the planet is on the brink of a crisis that, due to Israel and the United States, can embrace the global economy, Western European politicians are losing ground. By refusing solidarity with the Trump administration, they exposure themselves to many risks, among which the request to revise relations with Russia may prove to be the least costly.
Europe has been trapped in Russia's restraint policy, which the United States has imposed over the years. This policy has failed. Putin was able to defend independence, and Russia has not given in to attempts to "civilize" it to the Western fashion, or "vasalize" it by the United States. European leaders, on the another hand, lost their same - control due to the fact that they blindly followed the Washington directives. Their ability to build a long-term imagination of European continent unity and a realistic sense of past has disappeared.
Russia failed to defeat or humiliate, despite the tremendous aid granted by the West Ukraine during the ongoing war. erstwhile again, erstwhile the vital interests of the power are at stake, the chances of defeating it are slim. The Americans first understood that the entry of Ukraine into NATO, treated by Moscow as an enemy alliance, would mean the end of Russia as a sovereign state. As American realists admit, their consequence would be identical to that of the Russians. It is not without reason that lessons are recalled here and there from the 1962 Cuban crisis, erstwhile the American establishment was clearly responding to existential threats from an enemy power.
Learned by these experiences, the Americans during Donald Trump's second word rejected the mistaken concept of global dominance, putting Europe before the fact made. It was an beginning for a dialog with Putin about ending a meaningless war in Ukraine. However, the European Union and its leaders are not curious in ending this war due to their intellectual inertia and interests. Although the Ukrainian President's calls for further instalments of aid have become little pushy, the endless consultation Volodymyr Zelenski with Emmanuel Macron, Keir Starmer and Friedrich Merz maintain the illusion that the old powers mean anything. He's besides compromising himself. Ursula von der Leyen, transforming the European Commission into a military staff supporting the soldates in Kiev.
A disgraceful assault on Iran
Meanwhile, the dynamics of global processes surprises with its perverseness in the usage of force in another places of the planet with the effects hard to predict. The disgraceful Israeli-American assault on Iran and the related retaliation can be seen as a turning point in crossing all barriers that previously served at least to search pretexts or to preserve appearances to justify large-scale military interventions. It turns out that the ambitions and obsessions of 2 active in the scandalous scandals of politicians, Netanyahu and Trump, utilizing bizarre ideological and pseudo-religious justifications for their missions, revealed not so much personality pathologies as the predatory face of the forces behind them, aimed at imposing their regional and global supremacy.
Aggressors strike Iran with powerful blows and exploit any military advantage, with the peculiar silence of the alleged global community against the apparent genocide and war crimes. However, they cannot suppress the determination of the arrogant Iranian people to defend their values and vital interests. Most importantly, Iran is incapable to win militarily against aggressors, but has the power of demolition – it can effectively destabilise global energy markets. This will excalate tensions in many places of the globe. Faced with a deficit of energy carriers, war restores Russia's importance as an crucial supplier and producer.
Agonia of Ukraine
In this context, much indicates that in the face of the geopolitical disaster in the mediate East, the solution to the Ukrainian conflict will take place on Russian conditions. Western European elites must revalue whether they care more about the destiny of the depopulated and destroyed Ukraine or whether they want to reconstruct continental stableness and energy security. The Russians realise that the regression against Ukraine's destiny will proceed for decades to come. The occasional mitigation of sanctions and restrictions will not radically change Russia's and the West's attitudes. It is simply a phenomenon related to the nature of globalised capitalism, whose immanent feature will stay permanent crises.
So far, the Western allies of Ukraine are making all effort to prolong her agony, alternatively of creating a plan to return to normal. From the statements of leading Polish politicians there is an infantile helplessness and an embarrassing deficiency of thought to defend their own sovereign interests. It is essential to go beyond the ossified clichés and manic spells about the integrity of their positions, as dynamic reality requires courage to make overestimation, to respond prudently to changes and to find a favorable place in fresh layouts.
Unfortunately, not always what is most rational takes on realistic shapes. Pessimistic scenarios of the situation, infected by irrationalism, take the top. Effective analytical tools are missing, and forecasting has virtually lost sense in the face of the unpredictable and erraticity of politicians. 1 of the British and South African theorists of global relations is coming true, Charles Manningthat the attempts to realize what is happening are like “stepping on a slippery mountain edge, in darkness, over a abyss.” This is simply a state of utmost uncertainty, where all step involves the hazard of error, and deficiency of visibility (information) exacerbates fear. Humanity came at a time erstwhile intellectual effort becomes a conflict for survival, and the courage of politicians in naming things by name is on the weight of gold.
Age lost – Europe
Based on their commitment to the Ukrainian conflict, the most crucial players of the European Union will most likely search to deploy long-range weapons in Ukraine and even send their military quotas. This is the logic of this war so far that in no case will the aggressor be rewarded and his triumph not recognized. This is the worst possible scenario, whose implementation will depend mostly on how the situation will take place after the Iranian fight. If the U.S. administration could turn back from the way of escalation, then in fact only it can halt the negative trend of Europe's collapse into a disaster of full shortcoming with Russia.
Such an presumption stems from the reflection that the United States, manipulating and threatening to leave NATO, is taking over at least for a time the function of an "external" policeman on the European stage, restoring the "iron curtain" between Russia and the remainder of Europe, while leaving Ukraine like a "bloody wound" in a cruel wedge for years. In this way, Trump may not only win in securing another European “playing” but besides in ensuring their permanent military and energy dependence on America. On the shoulders of the European Union, Ukraine will be defended, supplied with American weapons for Europeans' money. In fact, the U.S. will control the course of the conflict, due to the fact that they can halt the supply of weapons and weapons at any time.
In the process of seeking fresh spaces to reconstruct balance and systemic stability, American-Russian relations will stay an crucial mention axis. Both powers will depend on China to set a safe distance and prevent fresh hegemonism. Taiwan's destiny will stay a hostage to a direct arrangement between the mediate State and a weakened America. The US will besides not voluntarily leave the mediate East, as pro-Israeli lobbying is besides strong to change US strategical priorities towards Israel. The mystery is Iran, which paradoxically can accelerate its way to crossing the atomic threshold. In this way, a fresh multipolar constellation will be formed, guaranteeing a return to compliance with the basic rules of the game. This will be followed by a rebuilding of the organization order involving the fresh powers of the Global South. By the mediate of the century, erstwhile the European Union and the UN are no longer present, and after the power of the United States will stay memories, the global strategy will build on a fresh organization that will represent civilizational diversity alternatively than a primitive and Manichean division into autocracy and democracy.
Political realism clearly indicates that without the participation of the top powers, i.e. the US, China and Russia, it will not be possible to draw the global strategy out of the collapse, nor to limit the escalation of wars that have mostly erupted due to the arrogance of the neoliberal West. erstwhile Russia and China, supported by the forces of the Global South, argue the expansion of the divided West, there is simply a large chance and hope to reconstruct global balance and return to peaceful coexistence.
Prof. Stanisław Bielen
Think Poland, No. 15-16 (12-19.04.2016)
