The conflict around the Constitutional Court turned into an open run involving uniformed services.
As the Warsaw Enterprise Institute (WEI) further wrote, the government convinces that it unlocks the works of the Court, and accuses the erstwhile leadership, elected for its erstwhile power, of violating the procedures, and the president of not allowing the judges who swore a vow in the Sejm to rule. The president and the opposition talk about a force attack on an independent constitutional body: without the oath taken personally by the head of the state, recently elected persons have no right to rule, and the change of the president of the Constitutional Tribunal with the assistant police is unlawful.
The crisis is characterised by divergent interpretations of laws
The WEI does not intend to settle competence and doctrinal disputes. In the face of deepening chaos, we focus on its effects on the state and the economy. Under the conditions of systemic debt, the weakening gold, the deficiency of government's budgetary sustainability strategy and the smoky conflict around the NBP, the systemic crisis will consequence in the failure of capital abroad and the further collapse of the valuation of government bonds. The only permanent exit from this clink is the constitutional reset which requires the agreement of the main political forces and the work for the state greater than assumes the immediate organization interest.
Amidst the crisis are divergent interpretations of the laws that led to the actual duality in the constitutional court. The government side and the judges elected by the present Sejm state that the president has no constitutional right to block the office of persons elected by Parliament, and the vow made in the Sejm against the refusal of the head of state is effective. This view was supported by the Venice Commission in October. The current leadership of the Constitutional Tribunal is accused of paralyzing the institutions and this has become the basis for the order to remove the president of the Court from the activities.
How easy it is for both parties to change their minds depending on whether they rule, it is best to see the publication of judgments
The President, the opposition and the erstwhile authorities of the Court mention to the Act on the position of judges of the Constitutional Tribunal and a long-standing constitutional practice, according to which the election of the justice is only to be concluded by a vow made in individual to the president of the Republic of Poland. In this optics, those sworn in solely in the Sejm are not judges, and their entry into the Court's building in the ace of police and State Protection Service is simply a forceful takeover of a constitutional body.
How easy it is for both parties to change their minds depending on whether they rule, it is best to see the publication of judgments. In 2016, the government of Beata Szydło refused to print in the authoritative of the Constitutional Tribunal judgement of 9 March 2016 on the amendment of the Court Act; the ruling was not published until June 2018. At the time, the opposition pointed out that Article 190(2) of the Constitution ordered the Court to print its rulings without hold and that the government had no right to measure their validity. Since March 2024, the judgments of the Constitutional Tribunal again neglect to be sent to the diary of Laws, this time by the will of the current coalition, and in December 2024 the Council of Ministers confirmed this practice by a resolution. The justifications changed, the effect remained the same. The citizen and the entrepreneur do not know whether the Court’s ruling is valid and the courts and offices measure it at their discretion. The company that would like to trust on the judgement of the Constitutional Tribunal in a dispute with the taxation authorities is so uncertain whether the court will take it into account. There are 2 legal orders in parallel today.
In more than 30 years Poland has moved from the country on the brink of bankruptcy to 1 of Europe's largest economies
The WEI does not intend to settle competence and doctrinal disputes. The situation around the Court has been complicated by both sides of the political dispute for eleven years, treating political institutions as political prey and bending procedures to immediate needs. According to the current leadership of the Constitutional Tribunal, around 1,000 cases are behind, with delays of up to 12 years. The bill for this legal duality is paid by the State, which loses stableness and predictability of the regulatory environment. Without them, no marketplace is normal.
In more than 30 years, Poland has passed from the country on the brink of bankruptcy to 1 of the largest economies of Europe, and since 2026 we joined the G20. Paradoxically, a deal in which the Prime Minister has large relations in Brussels and the president in Washington could be a diplomatic and economical lever for us. Meanwhile, politicians waste this capital on interior wars. The regulation of law will not be reinstated by legal fortitudes with police sticks, and the recordings of night-time pushes under the Court go to the hazard assessment departments of global financial institutions as a informing signal.
The systemic crisis has hit the weakest state of public finances in years
Business is not afraid of political disputes that are the salt of all democracy; it is afraid of a country where rules of play change with the result of elections. The investor who begins to uncertainty whether Poland is as mature institutionally as economically strong will build another mill just elsewhere. We cannot afford specified a scenario, due to the fact that the level of investment in the country stands inactive – according to the Central Statistical Office, the investment rate was only 17% of GDP in 2025, the same as the year before.
The systemic crisis has hit the weakest state of public finances in years. The government assumes a sector deficit of 7.1% of GDP in 2026 and 2027, and the state budget deficit for next year for PLN 281.2 billion. According to the Fiscal Council, the sector's debt will emergence from 59.7% of GDP at the end of 2025 to 69.5% in 2027 and expenditure on interest from 2.6 to 3.1% of GDP; the Council estimates that the draft budget shows "a sustainable and deep imbalance in public finances". In September, Moody’s credit assessment of Poland by 1 degree, from A2 to A3, and justified this decision by a permanent deterioration in public finances. It is worth noting that credit rating agencies besides measure the quality of public institutions alongside economical performance: the lower the rating, the higher the interest rate they request for lending money to the State. Gold is already weakening: the average euro rate in the NBP table of 30 October this year was PLN 4.40 compared to approx. PLN 4.21 at the beginning of the year.
In parallel with the dispute over the Court, there is simply a conflict around the NBP
The rising costs of servicing debt may seem to be an abstract problem for the Ministry of Finance. However, any additional gold spent on interest for abroad creditors means little spending on modernization of the army or public wellness protection or tightening the taxation screw to Polish entrepreneurs. In turn, the decline in the value of gold, which is simply a natural reaction of the markets to systemic chaos, will hit the pockets of all citizens. As national currency weakens, imported fuel, energy, industrial production components, medicines and electronics are rapidly expensive. Higher transport and manufacturing costs will should be passed on to consumers by expanding retail prices. This is simply a simple way to fuel inflation again, which will reduce the real value of our wages and savings.
In parallel with the dispute over the Court, there is simply a conflict around the NBP. The parliament is to decide to place the president of the NBP before the Court of State, and the fresh board of the bank cannot be established without the countersignate of the Prime Minister. If forces akin to those from the Court are taken against the central bank's management, the capital outflow, further weakening of the gold and the increase in debt handling costs will become a fact.
WEI does not support either organization to the conflict
Nor can the safety context be overlooked. erstwhile a full-scale war takes place across our east border, Poland is in a state of systemic paralysis, with the challenged authority of the services and courts, becoming an easy mark for hybrid activities and misinformation. In the current situation, the Kremlin does not even gotta force itself to make divisions in Polish society. It is adequate that Russian propaganda will publicize and fuel the legal chaos which the Polish political class itself funds citizens, thus weakening our position among allies and credibility as a safe place to invest.
WEI does not stand for either side of the conflict. However, we powerfully point out that further deficiency of agreement will lead to erosion of trust in the state, exposure Poland to further reductions in the rating and hinder private investment. The only permanent and safe exit for the economy from the present clink is simply a constitutional reset.
The Court's authority will not be rebuilt by parliamentary resolutions, unilateral orders or police cordons
A change of constitution requires two-thirds of the vote in the Sejm and an absolute majority in the Senate, so no camp will carry it out alone; the will of both major political forces and the simple work of the state is needed. The fresh rules should supply for the selection of the judges of the Constitutional Tribunal by a qualified majority, clearly specify the function of the president in the vows and decide in a single act the position of judges and decisions of 2015–2026. The Court's authority will not be rebuilt by parliamentary resolutions, unilateral orders or police cordons.
The legal interpretations in this dispute are and will stay different. The economical effects of legal chaos, i.e. higher inflation, rising interest on public debt, weaker currency and lost investment, will be felt by all citizens. It is worth that the rulers and opposition take it to heart before the bill for their political clash proves besides advanced for the Polish economy.
