After us, the July poll, taking into account what happened in the presidential election – in the second circular and after they ended, by which I mean the attempts made to challenge the voice of the sovereign by the revolutionary faction of the Civic Coalition. After the first decline, Donald Tusk's party's ratings returned to about 30 percent. Those who believed that the fall of the civilian Coalition would proceed in the polls are most likely disappointed. But it couldn't have been otherwise for a very simple reason: where would these anti-PiS voters go?
Despite Karol Nawrocki's victory, supported by the Law and Justice, post-election confusion, the protracted reconstruction of the Tusk government – the main opposition party, or Law and Justice – did not receive any poll bonus. It has been standing in place for months at a level akin to the Civic Coalition, and looking at activity in Novgorod, there is not much thought how to get out of this poll hole. The old schemes, which in the past effectively influenced millions of voters on the right from the centre – in the form of moral blackmail “we only patriots against Tusk” – no longer work.
Jarosław Kaczyński's organization did not accept the 2023 verdict of the sovereign until today, and how vividly resembles the Citizens' Platform, which, thrown off the saddle in 2015, did not realize for many years why Poles said goodbye to her. The guilty were all around, only not full of mistakes in the past. And if there were no mistakes, why change? It is essential to wait for the nation to become wise and to regulation again. It was for the Platform, it's for the PiS.
I mentioned that the Citizen Coalition had been rebuilt in a poll, but – well – life hates vacuum. She did it, as many times after 2023, at the expense of smaller coalition parties. In another words, in order for the Tuska organization to grow up, it has to fall down to Kosiniaka-Kamisha and Holownia parties. The 3rd Way is no longer there, and the formations of it so far co-creations manage poorly on their own. Breaking the 5% threshold and being among the surviving in politics is an highly hard task for the Polish People's organization and Poland 2050. And of these 2 parties, the erstwhile should be little worried than the latter. You'll most likely ask: why?
Because the most likely option for the 2027 election is the joint start of the civilian Coalition and the PSL. A matrimony that seems natural. Firstly, they ruled together between 2007 and 2015. Secondly, many local governments work closely together. Thirdly, they are in a single faction in the European Parliament, the European People's Party. So the stamp from Brussels is.
It's very important. And since the Civic Coalition and the PSL will most likely go to elections together, it is easy to number these 3–4 percent PSL to the current 30% Civic Coalition. You'll say, but voters don't add up that easily. In this case, yes, due to the fact that on board the PSL there were only specified sympathizers who would not be disturbed by the close-up with the Tusk party.
Why is this crucial in the context of the 2027 elections? due to the fact that the current advantage in the projected number of parliamentary seats – in this fresh post-election hand, based on the current available polls – for Law and Justice and the Confederation (and we are talking about no little than 40 mandates above the required majority) is the consequence that 3 smaller parties supporting Tusk's cabinet are weak, and 2 of the three, namely PSL and PL2050, are under the electoral threshold. But just take out 1 of them, or PSL, paste into the civilian Coalition, and we get 33–34 percent. It's from the vending device that gives at least a twelve more tickets for this block, mostly at the expense of the Law and the Confederation.
If we were to presume that on the side of Tusk's squad not all turned off reasoning and on board the ship after PSL would be taken the formation of Szymon Holownia, we make it 36–37 percent and a twelve more for specified a centre coalition. And erstwhile again, law and justice and the Confederacy would be the main victims. Even more pictorial: the advantage of the PiS and the Confederation in the mandates, with the joint block KO-PSL-PL2050, would be up to 10-15 mandates.
We have a very different image than the 1 from observing the current political sympathy of Poles? Not very pink anymore, you will admit, for the centre right and right. The 1 who – watching and listening to the politicians of both of these formations – is already in the garden, already greets the goose, analyses, converts.
He sees that the current breakdown on the centreleft is simply a image of “here and now” and at any minute to be replaced in a political album. There is besides a left side – this "spoke" and the Zandberg Together organization – both, including 10 percent of the polls, dismembered today. But who said this would happen in the 2027 election?
Czarzaste and Biedronia left has between 6 and 7 percent, Zandberg's organization between 3 and 4 percent. Today's mandate power of the right besides comes from this division on the left, due to the fact that as you can see – going separately, the left would have respective mandates, and together it would not enter the Sejm. But it is adequate that both formations in the name of defence against “the fight against the fascism of Poland” reached an agreement.
Then we are made 9–10 percent in the election – another harm in the state of possession of the right. In parliamentary mandates, their descent into the vicinity of 231 mandates, i.e. on the border of holding a majority on Rural.
You can see that what is and what can happen, if the centrepiece integrates, then 2 different hands, 2 different worlds. Yet in all of this, we have no warrant that the PiS and the Confederacy will settle after the 2027 elections.
Even looking through the prism of last week's beatings by Jarosław Kaczyński and Sławomir Mentzen, this script has gone a small far. Kaczyński has no another partner for present – outside the Confederacy – but it is besides not the dream partner of the leader of PiS. If PSL and PL2050 go with Tusk, the more Kaczyński is sentenced to the Confederate. And the 1 with the PiS might, but it doesn't have to.
This is most likely frustrated by the notes on Nowogrodzka Street. Mentzen may besides see his place in the political center. Especially erstwhile the left or left and together would go separately. And the formation of Donald Tusk, the Civic Coalition, without the balance of moral or climatic madness, widely understood left, would have greater area for manoeuvre after the next election.
A complicated puzzle, isn't it? But it is our occupation to take down the first Polish policy and explain it in an accessible way. Ba! effort to keep up-to-date and, on the basis of the changing situation, anticipate that we are not moving on the home political scene that much surprised.
So, erstwhile you come across the results of 1 or another poll again in the media in the close future, you should be aware that this is simply a photograph for today, which does not should be valid in a fewer months, and even more so in the position of the next parliamentary elections which should take place in the autumn of 2027.
