The August poll conducted by IBRiS on behalf of Onetu showed clear shuffling on the Polish political scene in the context of public assurance in the leaders of public life.
First place was the Deputy Prime Minister and abroad Minister Radosław Sikorski, who achieved a 41.8 percent assurance score, although this is simply a 0.4 percent point decrease compared to the erstwhile month. This is simply a tiny but noticeable regression, which did not prevent him from regaining his position as ranking leader. Sikorski is not trusted by 45.4% of respondents, and 11.3 percent declare indifference to him.
It was followed by president Karol Nawrocki with a score of 41.3%, noting the biggest monthly failure of trust among all leading politicians – up to 5.5 percent points. It is simply a signal that Nawrocki's current advantage is beginning to break. The deficiency of assurance in the president declared 48 percent of respondents, while 10.3% felt that there was no strong opinion on him. A fall of over 5 points can have long-term consequences for his political future.
The 3rd place came to president of Warsaw Rafał Trzaskowski. Its level of trust is presently 39.9%, which means a drop of 0.6 percent points. At the same time, as much as 51.7 percent of respondents do not trust Trzaskowski, and 8.4 percent talk neutrally about him. Although on the podium, the balance between affirmative and negative assessments is not in his favor.
The 4th place was taken by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, whom 36.4 percent of respondents trust. Trust in the head of government so remains on average, and its result has not changed drastically over erstwhile months. Further positions were taken by Magdalena Biejat (35.8%), Mateusz Morawiecki (35.2%), Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz (34.9%) and president Andrzej Duda (34.3%).
Sławomir Mentzen – 1 of the leaders of the Confederacy – was on the another pole of the ranking, with a score of 28.9%. That's 6.3 percent points little than in the erstwhile study, which makes him the biggest loser of this poll. specified a crucial decline may mean a clear reversal of part of the current electorate from its political message.
Even lower results were obtained by the president of Law and Justice Jarosław Kaczyński, who in August enjoys the assurance of only 26.7 percent of respondents. That's a five-point drop. At the same time Kaczyński achieved the worst score in the ranking of distrust – as many as 58.7% of respondents declared distrust towards the leader of the Law and Justice. His assurance balance is presently minus 32 percent points, which makes him the worst rated policy in the study.
At the very end of the list is the Marshal of the Sejm Szymon Hołownia, who is positively assessed by only 20.3% of respondents. However, what is worth emphasizing, its level of distrust has clearly declined – from 62.9 percent in July to 48.6 percent in August. That's 14.3 percent points of difference. At the same time, 30.1% of respondents declare indifference towards Holownia, which means that its image does not arouse strong emotions – neither affirmative nor negative – among a large part of society.
In general, most of the politicians surveyed have a negative balance of confidence, which means that the percent of people declaring a deficiency of trust is higher than those who trust them. The exception is Magdalena Biejat, Piotr Zgorzelski and Krzysztof Gawkowski, whose assurance balance remains affirmative or close to zero. Among the negative recordists alongside Kaczyński and Hołownia is besides Sławomir Mentzen with a balance sheet of -23.8 percent points.
In anti-ranking, i.e. the ranking of politicians, which Poles trust least, Jarosław Kaczyński placed first. The second in order was Mateusz Morawiecki with the consequence of 54.6% of declared distrust. The 3rd place included Donald Tusk with a score of 53 percent. So it is clear that even those politicians who gain decent results of trust must at the same time face a very strong polarisation of social sentiments.
From the position of long-term trends, it is worth noting that specified crucial declines – as in the case of Nawrocki or Mentzen – are seldom disposable. If these trends persist, further shifts in organization support polls are possible. In turn, the persisting leaders, specified as Sikorski, confirm their position as possible favorites of subsequent political hands – both in government and on the presidential stage.
The poll besides reveals increasing indifference to any politicians. In the case of Holownia, as many as 30.1 percent of respondents declare that there is no clear opinion. In the case of Sikorski it is 11.3 percent and in the case of Trzaskowski it is 8.4 percent. This means that part of the electorate withdraws from the active value of politicians, which may be due to fatigue of intense political message or deficiency of a real alternative.
The polling data from August indicate not only current social sentiments, but besides possible future movements in Polish politics. tiny changes in the leading positions may yet turn into permanent shifts. In turn large inheritances, as in the case of Nawrocki or Mentzen, may be the beginning of a longer downward trend. As always in politics, numbers say more than declarations – and they should be the informing signal for many players in the political scene.
