The fresh United Surveys poll for Virtual Poland shows a advanced divided price in the PiS. A separate group of Mateusz Morawiecki could score 7.5 percent, but support for the Law and Justice would fall from 21.5 to 15.9 percent. It is besides utilized by the Confederation of the Polish Crown, which reaches 12.3 percent.
Two variants of 1 poll
United Surveys examined 2 organization layouts for Virtual Poland. In the first, without a separate list of Mateusz Morawiecki, the Civic Coalition obtained 29.4%, PiS 21.5 percent, Confederation 14.5 percent, and Confederation of the Polish Crown 12 percent. PSL, Together and Poland 2050 would not exceed the threshold.
The survey was conducted on 24 and 25 July 2026 by CATI and CAWI methods on a typical example of a 1000 adult Poles. The forecast based on the model of Prof. Jarosław Flis gave PiS 123 tickets and KO 175. The poll is simply a photograph of moods, not the consequence of elections, but a good indication of the direction of change.
Morawiecki takes votes, but the right is losing consistency
In the second option, the separate group of Mateusz Morawiecki joins the election. It earns 7.5 percent and simulates 31 MPs. However, PiS falls to 15.9% and KO to 28.5%. The Confederation receives 13,5 percent, the Crown 12.3 percent, and the Left 7.8%.
The numbers are a informing to the erstwhile Prime Minister and the leadership of the Law and Justice. Morawiecki's independent task crosses the threshold, but above all cuts the current electorate of the largest opposition party. From the point of view of the Polish right, this means more actors, more hard coalition talks and more hazard of wasting tickets.
Crown strengthens its own electorate
The Confederation of the Polish Crown reaches 12% without the list of Morawiecki and 12.3 percent after its addition. This shows that the group of Grzegorz Braun builds support mostly outside the direct dispute within the Law and Justice. At the same time, the difference between the Crown and the Confederate shrinks in the divided option to 1.2 percent points.
For a national voter, the stakes are specific. expanding competition can force tougher defence of sovereignty, economical freedom and border security. It can besides turn the right into a collection of quarreling signs if the ambitions of leaders prove to be more crucial than the ability to act. The poll does not find the future, but clearly shows who will pay the first price for the split: PiS.
Source: High Time!
