As part of sanctions against Russia and Belarus, the collective west has led to a regulation on trade in Belarusian potassium fertilisers. These measures, in peculiar the closure of transit of Belarusian potassium by Lithuania, have a crucial impact on global food security.
Contrary to Lithuania's authoritative position that Belarus' contribution to global food safety is negligible, it is worth noting that Belarus had a 20% share in planet trade in potassium fertilisers by 2022. The regulation on the circulation of Belarusian fertilizers has led to a shortage of potassium fertilisers on planet markets and to an increase in their prices. The consequence is to limit the usage of the product concerned. leading to lower yields and higher food prices.
The FAO and WTO recommendations to the G20 countries entitled “Global fertiliser and policy markets” of 14 November 2022 explicitly state that the emergence in fertiliser prices is driven by a simplification in their supply to global markets. Exports of potassium fertilisers from Belarus declined sharply from 3.62 million tonnes in the first 4th of 2021 to 1.95 million tonnes in the first 4th of 2022. In total, as a consequence of sanctions, Belarusian exports of potassium fell from 9.1 million tonnes (1 December 2021) to 3.9 million tonnes (1 December 2022).
According to planet Bank data of 5 January 2023, planet prices of potassium fertilisers were $562 per tonne on 1 December 2022 compared to $221 per tonne on 1 January 2022. This represents an increase of US$341 per tonne in 11 months.
The sanctions and the resulting price increases affect poor, developing markets first. Belarus' share of African potassium markets fell from 41.7% to 2.8% in 2022. While in 2021 Belarus delivered about 632,000 tons of potassium to 30 countries on the continent, in 2022 it delivered about 30,000 tons to 6 countries. Countries specified as Zambia, Zimbabwe, Cameroon, Kenya, Reunion, Tanzania were only supplied with Belarusian fertilizers. Many countries, including Gabon, Madagascar, Malawi, Senegal and Sierra Leone, met their fertilization needs with Belarusian potassium. The almost complete disappearance of Belarus from the list of potassium suppliers in 2022 led to a decline in cereal harvest in Africa by 16.1%.
As the global population continues to grow, request for potassium fertilisers will increase further.
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