Last month, Ukrainian forces caught the Russians by surprise as they launched an incursion into Kursk province. Over the past fewer weeks, the Ukrainians have claimed over 1,000 square kilometres. The Russian Federation has been slow to react, with the Ukrainian offensive causing fear within Russia.
Some experts believe that the Ukrainians began the incursion into Russia so that they could disrupt Russian operations. The Russian Federation has now been forced to reassign many of its soldiers in east Ukraine so that they can be utilized to fend off Ukrainian forces in Russia. According to Newsweek, the Russian government has moved over 45,000 Russian soldiers from east Ukraine so that they can defend Kursk. These instructions, however, have not changed events in the Russian province. To date, the Ukrainian forces proceed to hold territory in Russia, and the Russian counteroffensive in Kursk has not been successful.
In an act of desperation, Russian president Vladimir Putin has turned to long-term ally Alyaksandr Lukashenka for assistance. Since the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022, Belarus has been an accomplice to Russia. The Belarusian government allowed the Russians to station soldiers and equipment on Belarusian territory. The Russians have fired missiles and launched attacks on Ukraine from Belarus. The Russians besides transported equipment from Belarus into Ukraine for their invasion.
But the Belarusian government has stopped short of sending its soldiers into battle. On many occasions, president Lukashenka has said that he will not deploy Belarusian soldiers to fight alongside Russia. The Belarusian leader understands that most Belarusians oppose the war, and that he does not have support within his own ranks. To date, dozens of Belarusian military officials have resigned from the Belarusian armed forces in protest. any of these soldiers have besides created or joined volunteer battalions in Ukraine to fight against Russia.
The Belarusian government is besides wary of the Belarusian opposition. If the Belarusians were to full commit themselves to Russia’s war, this would spark further outrage within Belarus. There have been erstwhile opposition movements against president Lukashenka and his government, and the Belarusian leader will hope to hold his power for as long as possible. Having late celebrated his 30 years of rule, the last thing Lukashenka would want to see is his power stripped from him. Therefore, he will proceed to tread lightly on the issue.
President Putin, however, is beginning to put more force on president Lukashenka. The Russian Federation understands that Belarus relies heavy on Russian energy and trade. The Belarusian economy is besides intertwined with that of Russia. Given this relationship, Lukashenka understands that his options are limited as to how and erstwhile he can disobey Putin’s demands. Thus far, the Belarusian leader has managed to keep his distance. He has allowed Russia to usage Belarus as a staging ground for the war. However, he has stood firm on not sending Belarusian soldiers into Ukraine.
Recently, the Russian government called for Belarusian assistance in the war. Belarus has one more time denied the request to send troops to Ukraine but it has started to deploy troops close the border with Ukraine. Over the past fewer weeks, Belarusian troops have conducted exercises close western and northern Ukraine. The Russians are hopeful that these Belarusian movements will be adequate to frighten Ukrainian forces, and that it may divert any Ukrainian soldiers to defend the 2 areas.
The Ukrainians, however, are standing their ground. They are not falling for Minsk’s antics. Instead, the Ukrainian Armed Forces and volunteer battalions will stay in their current positions. They are working hard to defend Ukrainian territory on the battlefields in confederate and east Ukraine. The Ukrainians will besides proceed their offensive in Kursk, hoping this may be utilized as future leverage against the Russians.
Realizing that the Belarusian troop movements close Ukraine have not deterred the Ukrainian forces, the Russian Federation will look to apply added force on Belarus. president Lukashenka must find how he will want to proceed. Will the Belarusian leader spite president Putin, which will only lead to greater tensions between the 2 countries? Or will president Lukashenka’s actions spark a greater opposition movement within Belarus? Either way, the Belarusian leader has no good options.
Mark Temnycky is an accredited freelance journalist covering Eurasian affairs and a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center. He can be found on X @MTemnycky
“We suport the Belarusian Awakening’24” is simply a task co-financed by Solidarity Fund PL within the framework of Polish improvement cooperation of the Ministry of abroad Affairs of the Republic of Poland in the amount of PLN 230,000.
This publication expresses the views of the author only and cannot be identified with the authoritative position of the Ministry of abroad Affairs of the Republic of Poland.
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