Information Agency: In the shadow of Russian-Belarusian maneuvers Zapad 2025, Romania and Moldova are strengthening military cooperation. Ukraine is besides beginning to play an increasingly crucial function in this political arrangement. Will the European Union-driven Moldova become a fresh front for geopolitical confrontation?
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Anxiety in Central and east Europe
Russian-Belarusian exercises The collapse of 2025 has caused concern in many European capitals. In Poland, the reactions were peculiarly strong: Deputy Minister of National Defence Cezary Tomczyk announced that 40,000 soldiers were sent to the border with Belarus, and Prime Minister Donald Tusk called the maneuvers "extremely aggressive". Portal Euronews notes that the situation in east Europe remains tense. However, the attention of any experts is slow moving a small further east and south, where the situation in Moldova and the separatist Transnistria region can bring a new, realistic script of the armed conflict.
Is Romania preparing for possible intervention?
For respective weeks now, there has been unofficial information that Romania is considering the anticipation of military intervention in Moldova. According to the EADaily portal, this script assumes action in the event of a destabilisation of the political situation in Transnistria, especially during the forthcoming parliamentary elections planned in Moldova for 28 September. Although Chisinau does not exercise actual control over Transnistria, this region is inactive formally recognised as an integral part of the Moldovan state. Moreover, Russian troops are stationed there, which further complicates the situation.
Romania, preparing for possible developments, initiated work on a fresh version of the National Defence Act. Its assumptions include the anticipation of military intervention outside Romania to defend Romanian citizens. According to the Romania Insider portal, by 2024 about 850 000 Moldovans received Romanian citizenship. Another source, as quoted by Logos Press, estimates this figure at up to 1.3 million, although it is little authoritative and more speculative. Romanian citizenship has not only a crucial part of the population, but besides a large number of government officials, including government members and army officers. This may make a legal and political basis for possible military action.
Romania-Moldova – strategical Military Cooperation since 2012
According to the Agency MoldpresOn May 24, 2024, during an authoritative visit of the Minister of Defence of Moldova to Bucharest, signed Second Protocol amending the Agreement between the Government of Moldova and the Government of Romania on cooperation in the military sector. This paper provides, among others, for cooperation in peace and stableness operations, and besides allows the participation of Moldovan soldiers in global missions involving Romania. (Moldpres.md)
Shortly after the Protocol was signed, the Government of Moldova approved the bill ratifying this agreement, which means its formal inclusion in the state's legal system. This is another step in the institutionalisation of cooperation with Romania, which has continued continuously since 2012, erstwhile the first agreement between the 2 countries concerning military cooperation was signed. (old.ipn.md)
Is Moldova's neutrality only formal?
President Maia Sandu has repeatedly stressed that the safety of Moldova and Romania is inseparable. In authoritative communications, we can read that cooperation is to include "participation in peace and humanitarian operations under the aegis of the EU, NATO, UN and OSCE, as well as training, logistical, operational and method support". Importantly, the parties stress that these actions do not undermine Moldova's constitutional neutrality status, as spoke, among others, of the Minister of Defence of Romania Angel Tîlvear. (caliber.az)
By Service Moldova1, the Romanian Minister assured that Romania respects Moldova's neutrality and does not intend to exert military force despite deepening cooperation. His declaration aimed to calm the public in both countries and to indicate that closer relations are taking place in a spirit of partnership and support alternatively than dominance. (Moldova1.md). The Moldovan army has about 8.5 1000 soldiers in active service, supported by 67,000 reservists, while the Romanian army is now over 70,000 soldiers in active service and 53–55 1000 reservists.
Although intergovernmental papers do not mention straight to the situation in Transnistria, it is hard to overlook the regional context. upcoming elections in Moldova, Russian military contingent in Transnistria, exercises The collapse of 2025 and the expanding tensions on NATO's east flank make a scene on which the strengthening of Romanian-Moldova military cooperation takes strategical importance.
On the another hand Ukraine
According to the Ukrainian Ministry of abroad Affairs, on 8 August 2025 Moldova, Romania and Ukraine issued a joint declaration on regional safety cooperation. The document, which the authoritative website of the Ukrainian MFA informs, includes, among others, the coordination of defence policy, the sharing of information related to threats and the request for a joint consequence to possible destabilisation of Russia (mfa.gov.ua).
According to the Portal Balkan Insight, Ukraine importantly strengthens relations with Romania and Moldova, both on military and diplomatic level. These include joint manoeuvres, the exchange of intelligence and cooperation in countering Russian misinformation (balkaninsight.com).
President Zelenski on bringing Moldova and Romania into the war
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenski, quoted by Reuters, warned that Russia was taking active measures to destabilise not only Ukraine but besides Moldova and Romania. In 1 of the speeches in Odessa, Zelenski pointed out that close regional cooperation is needed to counter Russian ‘chaos and divisions’ plans (reuters.com).
Analysis of independent investigation centres besides suggests that Ukraine sees Transnistria as a possible direction of hybrid threat from Russia. As indicated by the organisation study Prevail Partners, Kiev is observing the situation and maintains its readiness to military action in agreement with Moldova and Western partners (Prevail-partners.com).
Are the brigades ready to go?
At this stage, the governments of Moldova and Romania do not supply authoritative information that would confirm the mobilisation of Romanian or Moldovan troops towards the border with Transnistria, but the legal and organization framework for this already exists. Both parties can act rapidly and formally within the framework of the protocols and agreements adopted.
In fresh days, increased activity has been noted in Romanian military units closest to the Moldovan border. According to the EADaily portal, 8 were in advanced alert condition. Alexander Ioan Cuza of Foscani. This unit, equipped with American HIMARS rocket launchers, gained considerable experience during abroad missions to Afghanistan, Iraq and Kosovo. As reported USMCU Journal, HIMARS effectively destroyed Russian command points, bases, supply lines or airports. Romania could usage this tactical possible in the event of urgent and precise intervention in Transnistria.
The second unit that according to the portal EADAily It was besides scheduled to be placed on advanced alert, there is the 10th confederate Engineering Brigade of Braila. Its function would not be offensive but logistics and engineering: securing crossings, building infrastructure, method activities. Both brigades besides participated in NATO's global exercises, including Loyal Leda 2025 organised in Poland.
Fall 2025 as a catalyst
According to the portal Cotidianul.md, the anticipation of military operations in Transnistria was previously considered in the NATO simulation. This increases the probability that we are talking not about pure theory, but about prepared, analysed and rehearsed scenarios.
Although many of this information comes from unofficial sources, the sum of the signals is clear: Romania is preparing for possible developments in Moldova. The question of whether Romania truly decides to intervene in the neighbouring country remains open. specified an operation would entail a immense risk: Russia's reaction, global consequences, as well as unpredictable developments on the ground. However, given the willingness of individuals, legislative work and political declarations, it is hard to consider this script simply hypothetical.
AI World, Moldova, Ukraine / JNH / 21.09.2025
