The ‘Senack Pact’ is scheduled to be signed on Tuesday, February 28, reports Gazeta Wyborcza, confirming erstwhile "tubs", including those saying that individual conversations have become a dead end. The ‘Pact’ will so be signed, but the list of candidates will not be. This is the second good news – even better than the first. Why do both messages have flaws? Yes, due to the fact that a real agreement must not be limited to 4 parties, nor should it be allowed that the "obsessed candidacy" be decided by the cabinet fair.
She made a career thesis about losing the legislature pact. I am ashamed to admit that I took a crucial part in its formulation – right after those elections I counted it next to OKO.press as the first and for a long time only. Then Simon Holovnia made the thesis of failure and utilized as 1 of the arguments against the common parliamentary list, explaining that the coalition of “fire and water” would consequence in common discouragement of supporters of various parties in relation to the list on which they would find unacceptable “foreigners”. 1 weakness of this argument was the fact that while the single-mandate legislature ordination actually each in any cases vote, for example, to the voters of the PSL for individual from the SLD, which they do not want to do, and what is actually seen later in the voting data, the joint parliamentary list will simply contain the names of representatives of all parties and each voter will find individual on it who he can support – inactive against others, if he truly wants to.
However, the failure on the "package" is primarily false. Indeed, in 2019, the legislature candidates were given 773 769 votes little than they were given to 3 parliamentary candidates, which means the failure of almost 9% of all opposition votes – but it is simply a consequence not of the "artificial union" but simply of the extraordinary fudge that was then made. ‘The pact did not issue candidatures in 2 districts. In respective another pacts, they broke the parties themselves by putting the candidacy against each another and taking votes from each other. As a result, the opposition gave the PiS 10 districts in which it had the advantage, counting in the votes of the Sejm. This is better than in 2015, erstwhile the PiS got 61 seats in the Senate, although the opposition had an advantage in 73 districts, and in 53 of them exceeded this advantage of 50% of the absolute majority, which should have prejudged the outcome.
The 2019 "Pact" only in 40 districts led to its mark situation: to the rivalry of the "one-on-one" opposition against the Law and Justice. We won in 27 of these districts. Without revelation – we did not get any writing territory here. But the candidates of the "Pact" got in these places – attention! – almost 6% more than 3 opposition parties together in the parliamentary vote! In fact, unification brings a strong bonus, not a loss.
In these 40 districts, PiS won 15 districts – only where it besides had a seismic advantage, but only in 2 of them that advantage exceeded 50%
In the remaining 58 districts (I number down those in which the opposition candidates were not) there were candidates "third parties". On average, candidates for the Pact lost almost 18% of the vote of 3 parties! That was the real origin of the loss. The opposition won 23 tickets here, although it had an advantage in 34 districts, and in 24 of them it exceeded 50%
This is the measurement of the fumble, and so far everything indicates that the opposition – with the support of always loyal free media – will want to repeat this solution.
These “third parties” were 80 in 2019. I was 1 of them. Together, for example, with Krzysztof Kwiatkowski, present an independent senator, 1 of the outstanding ones. And with Adam Mazgula, who – as I hear – just joined the PO, he most likely abandoned the thought of independent running. However, the another individuals were mostly unknown nationwide characters supported locally by various environments, most frequently right-wing. These 80 3rd parties determined the consequence in 2019, taking votes almost exclusively from the opposition and almost never from the PiS. The data from 2019 besides show very clearly that the Sejm of voters another than the PiS list of the right frequently exotically utmost – including the voters of the Confederate, Unpartisan and Local Governments, Effective Liroy – without their own candidates almost always voted for opposition and again almost never for the PiS.
An interpartisan legislature pact is necessary. Apparently, his logo is in the study. I have a proposal for a Citizen legislature Pact. The first proposal of his sign is already He absolutely must be formulated in each of the 100 legislature districts. You must not mess around and effort to choose “reliable partners”. The only and absolutely adequate criterion for participation in the agreement is clearly, a publically announced declaration to submit to the verdict of the missing "first circular of elections" – to resign from the start in a situation where the procedure agreed by all curious parties indicates individual else as a candidate with the top support.
In the Citizen legislature Pact, I see many advantages of civic democracy. They're very crucial to me. But erstwhile you talk to parties, their hard electorate, and always devoted organization opposition to media people, specified “dreams” should be put aside. The strategical goal of the real pact must be to bring about a "one-on-one" situation. The agreement of the 4 organization leaders will not supply this, as it did in 2019. In this regard, the rumors of the "Senatical Pact" I have late declared to be nonsense. There is no real agreement. If that happens, in each of the 100 districts separately. If anyone hopes that this time there will be no prejudicing the result of the “third person”, he presents a foolishness that cannot be forgiven in the face of the upcoming clash. P.S.: Rumors found me during time-consuming work on the analysis of election results mainly from 2019, which I have been doing for respective weeks. I'll present her soon. Black and white, you can see how the legislature candidates were voted, how the voters of individual parties flow. The conclusions are very clear. 4 parties can suffice in Warsaw. But not even in those 61 districts where the opposition has the advantage. surely it is not adequate to “take back” the PiS. Politicians are making us what they've always prepared. I want I could say "don't be fooled," but I know that most of us very much want to believe...
